January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Here is a factoid I learned at the AMS meeting today.

I saw a plot showing the correlation between mean wintertime temperature and total snow fall over the United States and Canada over 1950 to present.  The correlation was positive for locations with mean winter temperatures below -15C and negative for mean winter temperatures above -10C.  So unless you live within say 100 km of the Canadian border root for a cold winter ... if you like snow. 

yes which is why people that say we need a 2 week warm up...in the heart of winter no less...no crazy. Not going to name names like Mitchnick

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

This is a fast flow Nina dry year where cold is the highlight. 7+!day bombs should be ridiculed as they have not materialized, tend not to in seasons like this, and most likely will continue to not materialize. 

detailed discussion of what the 7+ days shows for us are very readable but not predictive of actual outcomes  I remember ALL the staunch model followers of 5+ years ago, they are mostly lurkers now as they have assessed and absorbed what actual outcomes really are .

 

We just had a bomb. Just because the heavy precip missed us by 100 miles doesn't  mean it didn't happen. 100 miles is noise on a pattern level. Yes the lack of stj in a Nina increases the odds we miss because things develop late but DC has had a few HECS storms in a Nina year and many more secs/mecs level ones.  There is no one Nina pattern. They have variance. 

As for models they seem slightly more reliable then chicken bones and astrology.  But they aren't meant as verbatim predictions from long leads. If your using them that way then the fault is with user error. Between the ensembles and ops at range they offer glimpses to the possible permutations. They are like goal posts. They aren't meant to nail storm specifics from 7 days. And when there is wide variance it at least tells us the pattern is volitile. Still some value. They aren't perfect and in this type of pattern they struggle but for the umpteenth time they are better then any alternative for long range pattern recognition.

Without them we would have no idea the ao and epo might be about to flip. We could guess based on past pattern progression but that's dangerous as similar patterns often take divergent trajectories based on minute details that aren't easily perceptible to us. 

So if you want to continue to blast the models fine but i challenge you to offer non guidance based substantive value to a long range discussion not based on vague seasonal generalities like quoting broad brushed Nina climo or almanacy style vagueries that can be twisted into being right no matter what happens. 

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

This is a fast flow Nina dry year where cold is the highlight. 7+!day bombs should be ridiculed as they have not materialized, tend not to in seasons like this, and most likely will continue to not materialize. 

detailed discussion of what the 7+ days shows for us are very readable but not predictive of actual outcomes  I remember ALL the staunch model followers of 5+ years ago, they are mostly lurkers now as they have assessed and absorbed what actual outcomes really are .

 

I agree that progressive flow like we've seen has kept everyone guessing and there is no way models can get discrete features right as leads lengthen. By the time we cross the 7-10 day period it's even harder. Pretty much the only thing you can say about longer leads right now is a low confidence "probably" warm/cold/wet/dry etc. 

However, if fast flow becomes blocked flow then things change. Right now it does look like flow will be blocked and slow down coming up. Unfortunately the pac is looking to throw a wrench in the works for snow chances here but long leads could become more skilled in a week assuming blocked flow won't just be a flash in the pan like we saw in late Nov/early Dec. 

I do think snow chances are below normal for at least 2 weeks. Things aren't synching up right for above normal chances. It's not a shutout pattern at least nor does it look like extended above normal temps. But there's really no support for big storm chances anywhere in the short, mid, or long range. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes which is why people that say we need a 2 week warm up...in the heart of winter no less...no crazy. Not going to name names like Mitchnick

I'm totally good with up and down seasonal for the next month. Extreme cold isn't what we look for. That's one of the reasons that every big storm we get has a mix line within 150-200 miles or so of dc. Sure, there's exceptions to that like everything else but a normal continental 1030 hp somewhere between Toronto and Boston is all we ever need for a snowstorm. We certainly don't need or want a 1040 over st Louis or between obx and Bermuda. Lol. 

[Climate175]

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Cue someone complaining about analyzing long range threats in 3....2.....1......

Why are we still here.  Winter is over.

 

 

LOL... Just Kidding

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

A few weeks ago someone asked why the ECMWF is only run twice per day.  I posed this question to an ECMWF representative at the AMS meeting today.  She explained that it is because their mandate is to do medium range forecasting and that two runs per day are sufficient to do so.  Individual countries within the European Union are responsible for their own short range forecasts and most run their own regional models to do so. 

I posed the same question to a representative of WeatherBell and he stated that he believes part of the reason is that the ECMWT forecast takes a long time to come out and that sondes are usually launched twice per day.  The  12Z ECMWF simulation begins later than the 12Z GFS run; by waiting longer, the ECMWF group is able to incorporate late arriving data sets into their analysis/IC thus helping their forecast.

Why we didn't specifically discuss this, the ECMWF's goals for 2025 are "skillful ensemble predictions of high-impact weather up to two week ahead", prediction of "large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead", and "global scale anomalies up to a year ahead". 

As a sidenote, she believed the 9 km resolution would be around until at least 2021. 

 

Thanks... that was me...

 

But if they wait longer on the 12/0Z runs... they could just wait longer for the 6/18z.  I think it is more so that the model doesn't look as jumpy as the ones that run 4 times day.

 

Thanks again for the answer

[Interstate]

So looking at the GFS... After Saturday... we get one more warm day next Saturday 20th.  I do not call that a warm up.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We just had a bomb. Just because the heavy precip missed us by 100 miles doesn't  mean it didn't happen. 100 miles is noise on a pattern level. Yes the lack of stj in a Nina increases the odds we miss because things develop late but DC has had a few HECS storms in a Nina year and many more secs/mecs level ones.  There is no one Nina pattern. They have variance. 

As for models they seem slightly more reliable then chicken bones and astrology.  But they aren't meant as verbatim predictions from long leads. If your using them that way then the fault is with user error. Between the ensembles and ops at range they offer glimpses to the possible permutations. They are like goal posts. They aren't meant to nail storm specifics from 7 days. And when there is wide variance it at least tells us the pattern is volitile. Still some value. They aren't perfect and in this type of pattern they struggle but for the umpteenth time they are better then any alternative for long range pattern recognition.

Without them we would have no idea the ao and epo might be about to flip. We could guess based on past pattern progression but that's dangerous as similar patterns often take divergent trajectories based on minute details that aren't easily perceptible to us. 

So if you want to continue to blast the models fine but i challenge you to offer non guidance based substantive value to a long range discussion not based on vague seasonal generalities like quoting broad brushed Nina climo or almanacy style vagueries that can be twisted into being right no matter what happens. 

What did Wally Kinnan and Herb Clark do for info when they were pushing out 5 and seven day forecasts in the60's and 70's. And where can I find data on how the models have fared compared to the old time tv weathermen of the 1960's and 1970's ( the ones who were meteorologists). I know, probably a lot of guesswork without satellites, radar, and computer models.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The ICON model got added to the tropical tidbits global section and it shows the apps runner way east of all the other guidance.  Im assuming that model has 0 credibility but it was fun to look at. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

The ICON model got added to the tropical tidbits global section and it shows the apps runner way east of all the other guidance.  Im assuming that model has 0 credibility but it was fun to look at. 

Found this tweet in the comment section of Levi's tweet. Should certainly take it with a grain of salt compared to the Euro, Ukie, and even GFS. 

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

The ICON model got added to the tropical tidbits global section and it shows the apps runner way east of all the other guidance.  Im assuming that model has 0 credibility but it was fun to look at. 

ICON only ever gets dug out in times of desperation or during a blizzard when we are enjoying the wicked totals. IIRC it's scored a couple of semi-coups. Really awesome Levi is adding stuff like this. Just need the ARPAGE and UKMET.

We get to enjoy these images

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

ICON only ever gets dug out in times of desperation or during a blizzard when we are enjoying the wicked totals. IIRC it's scored a couple of semi-coups. Really awesome Levi is adding stuff like this. Just need the ARPAGE and UKMET.

We get to enjoy these images

Yeah it’s fun to have more models, especially more that do snow maps and the rain/frozen maps.  This solution is so different from all the good globals its comical. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah it’s fun to have more models, especially more that do snow maps and the rain/frozen maps.  This solution is so different from all the good globals its comical. 

Pretty sure verification scores are like golf. The lower score the better. 

 

JK

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

14 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Found this tweet in the comment section of Levi's tweet. Should certainly take it with a grain of salt compared to the Euro, Ukie, and even GFS. 

He also said that putting the NAVGEM and JMA on there were mistakes. 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

yes which is why people that say we need a 2 week warm up...in the heart of winter no less...no crazy. Not going to name names like Mitchnick

Let me try to explain this so even you can understand.  We've been in a dry, cold pattern with very little snowfall...you still with me? If the present pattern continues,  we run the risk of repeating another 00/01 or similar fail....I know,  you're confused at this point, but hang in there young fella'! We need something to break the pattern to avoid that repeat. That's why I say we need a thaw and then hope when the cold comes back the players on the field aren't stuck where they are now. Is there any guarantee?  Well of course not. If you want a guarantee,  buy a pillow off a TV ad. But I'd rather roll the dice with a thaw and a return to cold with a likely different pattern than hope things change with what we've got now. He!!, with all these d@mn trace to 1" events,  I feel like an alcoholic in a bar with $100 in his pocket that's only allowed 1 O'Douls.

[ATreglown]

48 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Except, Florida has been quite cold and seen frozen in this La NINA

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What did Wally Kinnan and Herb Clark do for info when they were pushing out 5 and seven day forecasts in the60's and 70's. And where can I find data on how the models have fared compared to the old time tv weathermen of the 1960's and 1970's ( the ones who were meteorologists). I know, probably a lot of guesswork without satellites, radar, and computer models.

Forecasts didn't used to even attempt to go out that far. And they probably shouldn't now. Perhaps they issued a forecast to day 7 as a novelty but the reliability was low. Still is. Even in the 80s and 90s the 5 day planner was as far as the weather channel went. No 7-10 day nonsense. But forecasts back then had to rely on analogs and pattern progression. Both are still used today. No good forecaster just runs with a model output 100% in the long range. Pattern recognition and analogs should be weighted also and are. But more tools are better then less. Forecasts are better today then 25 and 50 years ago. There were huge 24 hour busts on significant storms all the time back then. Almost never anymore. Now a 48-72 hour bust is a big deal. That's a big change in warning time on synoptic events. Maybe someday we can push that to 7 days with accuracy but not yet. But the argument that computer guidance is making forecasting worse is utter nonsense. Some people don't know how to use it. But if someone hits themself in the face with a hammer it's not the hammers fault. And a hammer is way more likely to be effective if it has a 6 inch handle and the nail is right in front of you versus a hammer with a 7 foot handle trying to hit the nail on the other side of the room. But just because you miss the nail with the 7 foot hammer doesn't mean we should throw away all the hammers and just hit the nails with sticks.  

[gymengineer]

3 hours ago, iFred said:

I feel like a lot of you forget that compared to 3/4ths of the nation, the climate here is halfway decent for snow lovers. I’m the past three winters between PHL and DCA, I have seen more days and inches of snow and ice than I ever did in Seattle.

This is why I wouldn't travel to chase a snowstorm. Enough amazing ones come here. And it's also why I personally don't get too down about snow-less stretches, and can even enjoy tainted futility-breaking events like the March storm last year. (Yes, I actually kind of enjoyed that event from the gloppy snow onset to the sleet-pack aftermath.) 

I started a thread about this a couple years back. In my lifetime, my locations in southeast Montgomery County, Maryland, have experienced six 20"+ snowstorms. That's an average of one every 6.3 years. To make that stat even more amazing, they were spread out throughout meteorological winter:

Second half of December- 12/09

First half of January- 1/96

Second half of January- 1/16

First half of February- 2/83, 2/10

Second half of February- 2/03

(I looked at Boston's list of 20"+ events, and they were clustered from late January to President's Day with the exception of the April Fool's Blizzard.) That means that there's been realized potential for a mega-storm in any period of those three months, except for the first half of December.

And my biggest storms outside of the 20+" storm windows were decent too:

November: 7"  (11/11/87)

First half of December: 7.7" (12/5-6/03)

First half of March: 14" (3/13/93)

Second half of March: 9" (3/16-17/14)

To add to the ones already listed, MBY has also experienced an assortment of other >12" storms: 1/22/87, 2/23/87, 2/12/06, 2/9-10/10, 2/12-13/14. That's 12 events in my lifetime, which averages to 1 every 3.2 years. If we expand that to 10"+ storms-- the KU '25 cm' criteria- that adds 12/12/82, 1/25-26/87, which makes it an average return of 1 every 2.7 years. 

Yes, we suck at tropical stuff, but there have been enough quality snowstorms here in the DC suburbs that I will continue to stay positive about our winters.

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

Except, Florida has been quite cold and seen frozen in this La NINA

The one constant with nearly all nina's is a dominant northern stream for storm tracks. So far this year that piece has been right in the pocket across the US. Temps are different. The east has had cold ones and furnaces. As far as storms go, it's been nearly exactly what you would expect in general. Not just here but coast to coast. The single most important thing for our region and snowy nina's is a -ao/nao. So far that piece has not cooperated but we still have 2 months to go. 

[Amped]

There's a much better chance of 24" of snow in Chicago than there is of the ICON verifying.

[Bob Chill]

I don't remember if it's the ICON or the French model but one (or both) incorporate some of the euro's physics. I specifically remember reading that somewhere. With that being said, the ICON is already showing that it's not good in the med range. 

[ATreglown]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Let me try to explain this so even you can understand.  We've been in a dry, cold pattern with very little snowfall...you still with me? If the present pattern continues,  we run the risk of repeating another 00/01 or similar fail....I know,  you're confused at this point, but hang in there young fella'! We need something to break the pattern to avoid that repeat. That's why I say we need a thaw and then hope when the cold comes back the players on the field aren't stuck where they are now. Is there any guarantee?  Well of course not. If you want a guarantee,  buy a pillow off a TV ad. But I'd rather roll the dice with a thaw and a return to cold with a likely different pattern than hope things change with what we've got now. He!!, with all these d@mn trace to 1" events,  I feel like an alcoholic in a bar with $100 in his pocket that's only allowed 1 O'Douls.

My area of Virginia, that being Prince George, have received above climo at this point. December was a nice surprise at 5" and the Jan. 3/4 storm another 8". So we are now at 13". I keep hearing that the kind of cold that we just experienced  does not bring snow to the MA. But my area is the MA. So, why do you all insist that this area can not snow with the cold? I am already at and above snow here. Not trying to snub or anything like that. Just wish that you to the north would see this area as part of the MA is all!

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

So looking at the GFS... After Saturday... we get one more warm day next Saturday 20th.  I do not call that a warm up.

If you want to push all your chips on a single up run way out in time and make a call then no, there isn't a warmup. 

My guess is we get a repeat of this week. Couple days of a ridge before another front rolls through. If the ensembles are right with a persistent storm cycle hitting the west coast then the pattern could repeat several more times after that. Looks like a roller coaster and I do agree that we aren't heading into peristent warmth. The gfs and gefs disagree very much with d10-15 though. 

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

My area of Virginia, that being Prince George, have received above climo at this point. December was a nice surprise at 5" and the Jan. 3/4 storm another 8". So we are now at 13". I keep hearing that the kind of cold that we just experienced  does not bring snow to the MA. But my area is the MA. So, why do you all insist that this area can not snow with the cold? I am already at and above snow here. Not trying to snub or anything like that. Just wish that you to the north would see this area as part of the MA is all!

My opinions are limited to the Bwi/Dca area.  You are in the MA, but if you notice the MA forum has sub-forums like Richmond,  Eastern Shore,  etc. Your weather is probably closer to Richmond or Tidewater than Bwi/Dca, but that's a guess not having any data for your area.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, mitchnick said:

My opinions are limited to the Bwi/Dca area.  You are in the MA, but if you notice the MA forum has sub-forums like Richmond,  Eastern Shore,  etc. Your weather is probably closer to Richmond or Tidewater than Bwi/Dca, but that's a guess not having any data for your area.

My buddy in Ches Beach is over 10" on the year too. Same with my mom in Cambridge. We've been unlucky. Even more unlucky are our western brethren. The pattern has produced very close to home. Bad luck more than bad pattern the way I see it. We could all easily be over 10" on the year with just a minor shift of a couple events. That's the way it goes sometimes. It sucks and it's not fun but not a damn thing we can do about it. 

The uber cold pattern is likely done for the year. Let's hope we stop rolling snake eyes at some point 

[Ralph Wiggum]

That’s quite a robust -AO/-NAO.  Too bad we are losing the pacific but this time of year we can get the job done.  I doubt anything will cut as long as that block is in place 

Eff the PAC. I've seen enough "epic" PAC teleconnections over the years that fail to produce aside from cold or light snows. Give me a favorable AO and NAO any day of the week and twice on Sunday and I will take my chances. Set me up a solid 50/50 low, blocking in the NAO and AO regions, and a minor SE Ridge and that could work.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you want to push all your chips on a single up run way out in time and make a call then no, there isn't a warmup. 

My guess is we get a repeat of this week. Couple days of a ridge before another front rolls through. If the ensembles are right with a persistent storm cycle hitting the west coast then the pattern could repeat several more times after that. Looks like a roller coaster and I do agree that we aren't heading into peristent warmth. The gfs and gefs disagree very much with d10-15 though. 

 

I think the best part of the Gfs run that has a high likelihood of positively effecting our weather is the 10mb warming. It may take a few weeks, but it should result in legit blocking that lasts. The only caveat is that the warming as depicted continues and doesn't peter out. I know the high level warming stuff is not always easy or black or white,  but this is the best I've seen since early January,  2016.

[ATreglown]

Yes, I am more RIC, But what does that matter. This is a MA forum and should cover all area in the MA. Yes, there are some subforums, but have you seen the activity within these forums?  Next to nothing. That is why I follow the main forum!! I have tried to ask in many nice ways that you guys to the north include RIC in discussion. Maybe if you did, there would be more interested. 

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

Yes, I am more RIC, But what does that matter. This is a MA forum and should cover all area in the MA. Yes, there are some subforums, but have you seen the activity within these forums?  Next to nothing. That is why I follow the main forum!! I have tried to ask in many nice ways that you guys to the north include RIC in discussion. Maybe if you did, there would be more interested. 

What it all boils down to in the end, least with snow, is MBY. Yeah, we are all MA and we cover a wide area. There are more people north in the DC/Balt area so I'd expect the discussion to tend to go that way. I have 2-3 people out this way that chime in from time to time, otherwise I'm out on an island, it is what it is.