MountainGeek Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not sure what is more painful...a solid loss or an almost win....in weather I would say the "almost win" is more painful because we will stay on the ship until it sinks..and that is because of 1/25/00...just like we still think big snow is just maybe possible in November because of 11/11/87. I know which one allows all of us to get a lot more sleep..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There was a cluster of eps ens members with variations of what the op just showed. Small cluster but Mon-Thurs is our only window before roasting for a few days at least. If you want to will it away then go for it. At least we have an op run that showed a normal and realistic way to take advantage of a brief window sandwiched by upper level disaster. The 12Z GFS sorta-kinda has a hint for something possible mid-week next week as well, though it goes about it a different way and is northern-stream dominated. But certainly some vorts in there that keep a bit of interest. Same for early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: Or make it plain rain Not likely during the Mon-Wed time frame. Our big challenge will be precip. I'm beginning to regret posting anything at all in this thread. I should start focusing on rain storms and warmth since that seems to be what most people want right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not sure what is more painful...a solid loss or an almost win....in weather I would say the "almost win" is more painful because we will stay on the ship until it sinks..and that is because of 1/25/00...just like we still think big snow is just maybe possible in November because of 11/11/87. Just like we are always hopeful for Weak La Nina winters because of 96.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not likely during the Mon-Wed time frame. Our big challenge will be precip. I'm beginning to regret posting anything at all in this thread. I should start focusing on rain storms and warmth since that seems to be what most people want right now. Don't get cranky it's not a Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Don't get cranky it's not a Saturday Euro looks sweet in 10 days. Should be a rock solid shutout pattern with no chance of snow but good rain prospects. NPZ will mow his lawn, Ji will be speed dialing the suicide hotline, and Mitch will say this is exactly what we need so things get better in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not likely during the Mon-Wed time frame. Our big challenge will be precip. I'm beginning to regret posting anything at all in this thread. I should start focusing on rain storms and warmth since that seems to be what most people want right now. It's not your posts Bob. Modeling has been particularly flawed this year. It used to be that we could rely on the usual bias of the Euro with its conservative bent to keep us grounded, the GFS too progressive and filled with fantasy snow storms, the Canadian too wound up, etc. But we can't feel comfortable with any model or prog. It's every weenie's nightmare I tell you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not likely during the Mon-Wed time frame. Our big challenge will be precip. I'm beginning to regret posting anything at all in this thread. I should start focusing on rain storms and warmth since that seems to be what most people want right now. Not me -- I'm with Jebman and we're marshalling our combined force vectors to make something happen. Just a few of us working together were able to pull the coastal back from Bermuda....just think how far we could have pulled it if the other 3/4 of the forum had been on board to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro looks sweet in 10 days. Should be a rock solid shutout pattern with no chance of snow but good rain prospects. NPZ will mow his lawn, Ji will be speed dialing the suicide hotline, and Mitch will say this is exactly what we need so things get better in April. Just say it 25-30 day warm-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: It's not your posts Bob. Modeling has been particularly flawed this year. It used to be that we could rely on the usual bias of the Euro with its conservative bent to keep us grounded, the GFS too progressive and filled with fantasy snow storms, the Canadian too wound up, etc. But we can't feel comfortable with any model or prog. It's every weenie's nightmare I tell you! You know I don't buy in on any op beyond 4 days. Our only window for anything over the next 10-15 days is Mon-Thurs next week. It's not some high probability period but it's all we have to work with. If nobody wants to discuss it at all then fine. I'll drop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro looks sweet in 10 days. Should be a rock solid shutout pattern with no chance of snow but good rain prospects. NPZ will mow his lawn, Ji will be speed dialing the suicide hotline, and Mitch will say this is exactly what we need so things get better in April. Nothing ever gets better in April.....taxes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Just say it 25-30 day warm-up This place is like politics.....say a 10-14 day thaw and it gets reported as 25-30 days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This place is like politics.....say a 10-14 day thaw and it gets reported as 25-30 days. lol My middle name is exaggeration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know I don't buy in on any op beyond 4 days. Our only window for anything over the next 10-15 days is Mon-Thurs next week. It's not some high probability period but it's all we have to work with. If nobody wants to discuss it at all then fine. I'll drop it. Please don't. I will need to hope on that while the mid-south shovels out from the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know I don't buy in on any op beyond 4 days. Our only window for anything over the next 10-15 days is Mon-Thurs next week. It's not some high probability period but it's all we have to work with. If nobody wants to discuss it at all then fine. I'll drop it. we can pm back and forth.....lol this is why I'm here. My snowmobile boards are the same way, everyone just complains every time digital snow doesnt add up in their backyard, yet pay no mind to historical data that just says, it happens....get over it. Instant gratification of perty digital snowstorms have altered reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, supernovasky said: There are still small patches of white from the snows the last couple of weeks. Will be sad to see them go. The lake at Public Safety HQ is rapidly melting off...you can hear some of the "thumps" when the ice expands and cracks apart. It's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My bad Cobalts parents didn't have sex until PD 2 9 months from February 2003 would make him 14 lol dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This place is like politics.....say a 10-14 day thaw and it gets reported as 25-30 days. lol dont you mean winters over.... maybe next year.... blah, blah, blah.... meltdown commencing in 3 2 1................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 If we include the urban centers *and* most of the rest of the subforum, *and* use the newer 5"+ threshold for verifying Winter Storm Warnings, long streaks without one verifying are normal. I suspect the original poster was leaving out southeastern parts of VA anyway, because that's quite a storm that can cover VA Beach through eastern WV and up to the PA line all with 5"+ snow. Some long streaks going backwards in time: 1/26/11 to 2/13/14 2/12/06 to 12/18/09 (if we included 3/2/09, I think the western folks would rebel) 1/25/00 to 12/5/02 2/16/96 to 1/25/00 3/13/93 to 1/5-6/96 1/8/88 (even this one is questionable) to 3/13/93 2/11/83 to 1/22/87 10/16-17/73 to 2/79 (too lazy to look up which of the three was the first region-wide 5"+) And so on... I think the point is that it's *hard* to actually get 5"+ in downtown DC and southern/southeastern suburbs. The change from 4" to 5" has made a difference for verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 we just need a repeat of this for a winter, and everyone will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 i know that map very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not likely during the Mon-Wed time frame. Our big challenge will be precip. I'm beginning to regret posting anything at all in this thread. I should start focusing on rain storms and warmth since that seems to be what most people want right now. Love your analysis, but its just easy to be more pessimistic than you are because, it literally just doesn't want to snow here. It is especially frustrating considering we just came out of like one in 100 year cold period. So I think the calls of "it could be just around the corner now" are starting to be viewed with skepticism. I feel a shutout is more likely and its only Jan 9th. Its just what we seem to do these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, H2O said: i know that map very well that one, or every version of it since 2013/2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Love your analysis, but its just easy to be more pessimistic than you are because, it literally just doesn't want to snow here. It is especially frustrating considering we just came out of like one in 100 year year cold period. So I think the calls of "it could be just around the corner now" are starting to be viewed with skepticism. I feel a shutout is more likely and its only Jan 9th. Its just what we seem to do these days. Remember all the talk of the Dec 9 event over trending in our favor and us saying "it just wants to snow this year"? We're still at the point in the year where 1 decent event puts us at or over climo for this time of the year. We don't even need a region wide WSW event to give us all hope. If anything, we'll nickel and dime our way to climo If we do get close to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, gymengineer said: If we include the urban centers *and* most of the rest of the subforum, *and* use the newer 5"+ threshold for verifying Winter Storm Warnings, long streaks without one verifying are normal. I suspect the original poster was leaving out southeastern parts of VA anyway, because that's quite a storm that can cover VA Beach through eastern WV and up to the PA line all with 5"+ snow. Some long streaks going backwards in time: 1/26/11 to 2/13/14 2/12/06 to 12/18/09 (if we included 3/2/09, I think the western folks would rebel) 1/25/00 to 12/5/02 2/16/96 to 1/25/00 3/13/93 to 1/5-6/96 1/8/88 (even this one is questionable) to 3/13/93 2/11/83 to 1/22/87 10/16-17/73 to 2/79 (too lazy to look up which of the three was the first region-wide 5"+) And so on... I think the point is that it's *hard* to actually get 5"+ in downtown DC and southern/southeastern suburbs. The change from 4" to 5" has made a difference for verification. Aye. Not abnormal, but also still frustrating. I like warning level snow events. Even if you drop it down to 4 inches, we haven't been there in the beltways for two years. And last year was a general horror show - all that March storm did was keep last year from its rightful place on the all-time worst snowfall winter lists for the BWI/Dulles/DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Love your analysis, but its just easy to be more pessimistic than you are because, it literally just doesn't want to snow here. It is especially frustrating considering we just came out of like one in 100 year cold period. So I think the calls of "it could be just around the corner now" are starting to be viewed with skepticism. I feel a shutout is more likely and its only Jan 9th. Its just what we seem to do these days. Stop. You are not even from this forum/region, technically. Bob isn't making "calls", he's discussing possible windows that might open for the chance of something trackable, which is awesome to read his thoughts on. If you or anyone else is reading his posts (or PSUs, showmes, and a few others) as making specific calls for snow on given days, you need to step away from the computer for awhile, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Stop. You are not even from this forum/region, technically. Bob isn't making "calls", he's discussing possible windows that might open for the chance of something trackable, which is awesome to read his thoughts on. If you or anyone else is reading his posts (or PSUs, showmes, and a few others) as making specific calls for snow on given days, you need to step away from the computer for awhile, frankly. Odd how you got all that from what I wrote. Also, I live literally 2 miles from the MD border. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 All my chips are in for Bob's locked in snowstorm. Thank you for your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 from what I can tell off the eps, mean precip is from a clipper that heads to our north on days 7-8.5 that gives us nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Stop. You are not even from this forum/region, technically. Bob isn't making "calls", he's discussing possible windows that might open for the chance of something trackable, which is awesome to read his thoughts on. If you or anyone else is reading his posts (or PSUs, showmes, and a few others) as making specific calls for snow on given days, you need to step away from the computer for awhile, frankly. Don't mind him. He's mad at Burger King for their price of the Whopper and Whopper Jr, and seems to want to take it out elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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