January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

So we are hanging our hat on the CMC without other model support?  Didn't it not do that well with the last storm? Doesn't give me much faith.

Dude, we're not "hanging out hat" on anything. We talking about a range of possibilities. If anybody is hanging their hat on an op run beyond 4 days then they need to step away. NONE of us including the models know exactly what's going to happen in 8 days. No block means the odds are against but the gradient will probably be real and somebody is probably going to get frozen precipitation along the coast. 

[Chris78]

Unfortunately it looks like the Monday deal is trending towards a non event.

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

So we are hanging our hat on the CMC without other model support?  Didn't it not do that well with the last storm? Doesn't give me much faith.

Obviously it's not right 8 days out, but the CMC has been pretty good as of this winter so far. Still wayy far out there though, but I like what the ops are showing. Let's wait and see what the ensembles say in the coming days, then we can focus on that event.

[Ji]

my only problem with the GGEM is that it loves to give us lots of snow.

 

hint: We never get snow

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

my only problem with the GGEM is that it loves to give us lots of snow.

 

hint: We never get snow

At least we'll be in a shutout pattern within a couple weeks. Then we'll know for 100% sure that any modeled snow isn't going to happen. This "in limbo" stuff sucks. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

At least we'll be in a shutout pattern within a couple weeks. Then we'll know for 100% sure that any modeled snow isn't going to happen. This "in limbo" stuff sucks. 

im actually very worried about the rest of the winter. The shutout pattern comes at a terrible time and i dont remember many great Nina Februarys. Lets say pattern comes back to cold by early Feb. We have then a very small window to get snow because once Presidents day is over, snow chances become more difficult...although not impossible.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

im actually very worried about the rest of the winter. The shutout pattern comes at a terrible time and i dont remember many great Nina Februarys. Lets say pattern comes back to cold by early Feb. We have then a very small window to get snow because once Presidents day is over, snow chances become more difficult...although not impossible.

Better than our position last year, that's for sure. If I remember correctly, we had a period in Late January to early February which was cold, but was very dry (seem familiar), and then we had a warmup that happened in mid Feb, and we basically never looked back until early March. Still, could be worrisome if come next weekend the ensembles/weeklies keep extending the warm period even further with no end in sight. 

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

im actually very worried about the rest of the winter. The shutout pattern comes at a terrible time and i dont remember many great Nina Februarys. Lets say pattern comes back to cold by early Feb. We have then a very small window to get snow because once Presidents day is over, snow chances become more difficult...although not impossible.

I'm still kicking myself for upping my snow totals in the contest thread. Something I NEVER do too.  lol. But who knows really. We could run a period that looks like crap on paper and end up a winner. There's 2 things to consider when we hit the crossroads coming up...

1. Is the -EPO really going to just vanish and never come back?

2. Does the AO/NAO have a trick up their sleeves?

I don't know the answer to either but my guess is the EPO comes back and we also have a period of at least semi favorable blocking. This hasn't been a winter like the last few with a RAGING +AO/NAO. Both areas have been modestly good and bad since met winter started. 

I won't predict anything in the snow dept. We either run out of bad luck or we don't. Warm nina's usually just bully a SE ridge on the means and you can see it early in the season. We walked away from that possibility unscathed. The downside to this winter (other than a brief favorable look before the holidays) is that a good storm pattern has never once presented itself at a reasonable lead. Not one single time. But we have a knack at Feb hail marys so you can never discount that possibility until we're staring down the barrel of crap leading into March. 

 

ETA: I was only excited about our prospects once this winter and it was only for a couple days. As soon as that was taken away I knew we had a fight on our hands. That fight is going to continue for a while. We can discuss snow chances and such but never forget the fact that nothing shows easy chances or a good setup. 

[MountainGeek]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ETA: I was only excited about our prospects once this winter and it was only for a couple days. As soon as that was taken away I knew we had a fight on our hands. That fight is going to continue for a while. We can discuss snow chances and such but never forget the fact that nothing shows easy chances or a good setup. 

That was the 60-hr overrunning event from the juiced STJ within 7 days on all the guidance that completely evaporated into nothing, right? 

That one definitely left a mark....  

[mitchnick]

Crazy how in Nina's that don't have a SE ridge, precip results are the same as if there is one out there drying everything up as it heads east. Or, the models just suck with their long lead high qpf events.

[cae]

I might have missed this discussion, but CanSIPS has had the SE ridge in February for its last three runs.  The most recent run...

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, cae said:

I might have missed this discussion, but CanSIPS has had the SE ridge in February for its last three runs.  The most recent run...

It hasn't exactly had the best track record for the past 3 months, even within a month lead.

 

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

That was the 60-hr overrunning event from the juiced STJ within 7 days on all the guidance that completely evaporated into nothing, right? 

That one definitely left a mark....  

Yea, it wasn't just the epic GFS run either. All ops and ens agreed on a moisture tap from the ULL spinning off of Baja. They all looked the same too with a broad conus trough ripe for overrunning. I can't remember the last time I've seen such strong agreement in the med-long range completely vanish like that. The entire setup morphed into a northern stream HAMMER of cold and no chances of meaningful precip. At least the look was only there for 2-3 days and didn't string us along into the med range before pulling the plug. We never got into the range of upping confidence to probable. That would have been even worse. 

Now we have complete agreement on the EPO going + and warmth in the east. Wanna bet that doesn't verify? lol. I wouldn't place that bet. 

[WVclimo]

At this point, I have tempered my expectations for any snow and am now just rooting for precip of any kind.  1.40" has fallen on my yard in the past 60 days.  12Z GFS shows 0.81" over the next 16 days which is a big improvement over the bone-dry runs we have seen for weeks on end.  Hopefully that continues to increase as we progress through a milder period.

[Ralph Wiggum]

If anything, last few model suites are dampening any major "warmup" or really trying to delay it at the very least. As long as the Nina fast ns continues, we will have cooldowns every 36 hours or so. Im really starting to wonder if the lr "warm" looks will pull a mid-December and evaporate as lead time lessens. Remember when we were sure the SE ridge was going to do us in around Christmas? Everyone was certain the ens were a lock. Same with the "epic pattern" looks. Seems like a repeat modeled crud look like last month that will end up being transient and right back into the freezer. Negative AO signals are looking better too. If we get a thaw I am under the impression it will be brief. During the potential reload, I am also under the impression the boundary will keep us in the game. Still think lr is a dart board this year more than usual and big changes will keep surfacing under 4 days lead time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If anything, last few model suites are dampening any major "warmup" or really trying to delay it at the very least. As long as the Nina fast ns continues, we will have cooldowns every 36 hours or so. Im really starting to wonder if the lr "warm" looks will pull a mid-December and evaporate as lead time lessens. Remember when we were sure the SE ridge was going to do us in around Christmas? Everyone was certain the ens were a lock. Same with the "epic pattern" looks. Seems like a repeat crud lookk that will end up being transient and right back into the freezer. Negative AO signals are looking better too. If we get a thaw I am under the impression it will be brief. During the potential reload, I am also under the impression the boundary will keep us in the game. Still think lr is a dart board this year more than usual and big changes will keep surfacing under 4 days lead time.

 

There are some big flags coming up for a shutout period. May not be shorts and tees but the upper level pattern is pretty gross and there's a lot of agreement. The +EPO/-PNA couplet almost always means the Pac jet slamming into the west and no "cold factory" in Canada. 

This is pretty bad and I don't think we're going to walk away unscathed:

 

We'll see how it evolves of course and I'm not making any definitive calls or anything but it's pretty obvious big cold is on the way out for pretty much all of North America. It very well could be a flash in the pan and we get back to a more favorable setup for a cold Canada. That's so far out there that it's impossible to know if the breakdown is quick or a 2 week process (or a month...lol). 

[cae]

14 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It hasn't exactly had the best track record for the past 3 months, even within a month lead.

Sure, and the weenie in me says we should just toss it.  But I'm taking off the weenie hat here.  Like any model, CanSIPS will get things wrong, but it has skill for long-term forecasts.  It has been showing the same thing for three months in a row, which it didn't for November.  And it has support from the CFS.  That's unfortunately a pretty good signal that we shouldn't get our hopes up for February. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

im actually very worried about the rest of the winter. The shutout pattern comes at a terrible time and i dont remember many great Nina Februarys. Lets say pattern comes back to cold by early Feb. We have then a very small window to get snow because once Presidents day is over, snow chances become more difficult...although not impossible.

Lol....yeah mid Atlantic marches suck....

Some of you need to take a “chill” pill.  

A month ago things looked bleak (and I think you might have hit the cancel button then) and we are now on the backside of a great period. Thanks Mr EPO.  Sure snow wasn’t measured in feet but we’ve all had multiple shots at some and it’s still WAY better than last couple years. We all know the models have struggled some as well as modled nao’s Etc. 

relax and enjoy the warmup. It happens...every stinkin year. 

Signed

huge snow lover

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If anything, last few model suites are dampening any major "warmup" or really trying to delay it at the very least. As long as the Nina fast ns continues, we will have cooldowns every 36 hours or so. Im really starting to wonder if the lr "warm" looks will pull a mid-December and evaporate as lead time lessens. Remember when we were sure the SE ridge was going to do us in around Christmas? Everyone was certain the ens were a lock. Same with the "epic pattern" looks. Seems like a repeat modeled crud look like last month that will end up being transient and right back into the freezer. Negative AO signals are looking better too. If we get a thaw I am under the impression it will be brief. During the potential reload, I am also under the impression the boundary will keep us in the game. Still think lr is a dart board this year more than usual and big changes will keep surfacing under 4 days lead time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't blithely go whistling past the graveyard (WxWatcher007 might be watching you!) on this, and just assume that because modeled medium range patterns back in early/mid December didn't pan out quite how they initially indicated, then the same thing will happen now.  Others have made assessments, but there really is not much way around the fact that the pattern coming up starting around late next week is just plain f-ugly (Bob Chill made a good statement right below yours on this).  Now, I agree, there's nothing in particular at this point to say whether it's a short-lived lousy pattern, or something that goes on for a longer time.  It seems reasonable, I suppose, to guesstimate that we'll return to something colder or more favorable, hopefully as we close out January and through February.  But that's yet to be seen.  Like I said previously, I don't think we see this level of cold the rest of the season...or at least not quite as prolonged.  And again, we don't need single digits or teens to get good snows.

ETA:  Even the medium range model runs that looked epic for us in terms of snow back right before Christmas were relatively short-lived and not overly consistent in that depiction.  It became clear relatively quickly that we were looking at a more northern stream dominated period and had to hope for some luck.  The one thing that was modeled well was the fact we were in for a cold period, even quite cold...as just occurred.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There are some big flags coming up for a shutout period. May not be shorts and tees but the upper level pattern is pretty gross and there's a lot of agreement. The +EPO/-PNA couplet almost always means the Pac jet slamming into the west and no "cold factory" in Canada. 

This is pretty bad and I don't think we're going to walk away unscathed:

 

We'll see how it evolves of course and I'm not making any definitive calls or anything but it's pretty obvious big cold is on the way out for pretty much all of North America. It very well could be a flash in the pan and we get back to a more favorable setup for a cold Canada. That's so far out there that it's impossible to know if the breakdown is quick or a 2 week process (or a month...lol). 

I agree, the BIG cold is pulling back. BUT, we've also seen the gross pattern looks get muted and eventually pulled out from under us in the 12-16 day range. I am for the climo Jan thaw look as that is generally the week we tend to see it, but this season has proved to be a nightmare so far if people are forecasting as climo being one of the top factors. I can see this look muting out as we get nearer. If we get to within 7 days and it still looks like this, then yeah. Otherwise, la la land for now and based on this lead time seasonal trend changes, i am not sold on this look even if all 3 major ens show it. We've been down this road at LEAST twice already this year.

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it wasn't just the epic GFS run either. All ops and ens agreed on a moisture tap from the ULL spinning off of Baja. They all looked the same too with a broad conus trough ripe for overrunning. I can't remember the last time I've seen such strong agreement in the med-long range completely vanish like that. The entire setup morphed into a northern stream HAMMER of cold and no chances of meaningful precip. At least the look was only there for 2-3 days and didn't string us along into the med range before pulling the plug. We never got into the range of upping confidence to probable. That would have been even worse. 

Now we have complete agreement on the EPO going + and warmth in the east. Wanna bet that doesn't verify? lol. I wouldn't place that bet. 

It was a HUGE shift in all guidance but in hindsight it fit with something the models had been mistaken on a lot in December. Remove the bit if trough digging into the southwest and you don't get the stj reaction ahead of it and suddenly the trough is digging hole hog into the east squashing everything. That combo begat from just that one mistake across guidance totally morphed the pattern.  

The guidance has been better with the epo even if they flub the downstream impacts of it. So I believe the flip. But the weeklies offered some hope it flips back quick. If you follow the timeline they sort of imply the flip is related to the progression east of the trough in the North Pacific and the timing seems to coincide with the mjo wave propagation.  If you kind of project based on how fast its moving the flip back on the weeklies also implies as soon as the mjo wave influence wanes the epo will flip back. That's good news. No idea if it's correct but why not. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I wouldn't blithely go whistling past the graveyard (WxWatcher007 might be watching you!) on this, and just assume that because modeled medium range patterns back in early/mid December didn't pan out quite how they initially indicated, then the same thing will happen now.  Others have made assessments, but there really is not much way around the fact that the pattern coming up starting around late next week is just plain f-ugly (Bob Chill made a good statement right below yours on this).  Now, I agree, there's nothing in particular at this point to say whether it's a short-lived lousy pattern, or something that goes on for a longer time.  It seems reasonable, I suppose, to guesstimate that we'll return to something colder or more favorable, hopefully as we close out January and through February.  But that's yet to be seen.  Like I said previously, I don't think we see this level of cold the rest of the season...or at least not quite as prolonged.  And again, we don't need single digits or teens to get good snows.

Tell that to the CMC which gives part of my region a SECS/MECS next weekend. Maybe an argument can be made that we CAN actually produce in a crap pattern?? Though I dont think a crud look is a lock either nor do I think that is what the CMC shows thru next weekend. It has some ens means supports as well. Funny.....we couldnt get an "epic" pattern to produce yet our chances look better on some guidance during a "crud" look or at least trends from crud to ok. Funny how that works.

[Ji]

euro is a complete fail with regards to ice monday. What a drastic difference from our biggest ice storm in years 2 days ago

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Tell that to the CMC which gives part of my region a SECS/MECS next weekend. Maybe an argument can be made that we CAN actually produce in a crap pattern?? Though I dont think a crud look is a lock either nor do I think that is what the CMC shows thru next weekend. It has some ens means supports as well. Funny.....we couldnt get an "epic" pattern to produce yet our chances look better on some guidance during a "crud" look or at least trends from crud to ok. Funny how that works.

I don't think we're talking about the same thing. Over the next 10 days there are 2 or  3 cold fronts capable of having something run the gauntlet. Unlikely but absolutely within the realm.  Beyond that is where things really start unraveling. The real crap doesn't start until after next weekend. Yea, it's a long ways out but the process gets going over the next 10 days. I'd be more than a little surprised if we don't lose the EPO and experience a fairly warm NA pattern coming up. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Tell that to the CMC which gives part of my region a SECS/MECS next weekend. Maybe an argument can be made that we CAN actually produce in a crap pattern?? Though I dont think a crud look is a lock either nor do I think that is what the CMC shows thru next weekend. It has some ens means supports as well. Funny.....we couldnt get an "epic" pattern to produce yet our chances look better on some guidance during a "crud" look or at least trends from crud to ok. Funny how that works.

That is true, but it's one model and it's way up in the air.  And my "time estimate" of later next week was just meant to be a very broad range, though perhaps more like late next weekend and beyond is more accurate wording.  Don't get me wrong, I'm all out hoping for what you said earlier, that this ends up being relatively short lived and more muted than it appears now.  My big wish/hope is that we have something like Jan. 2010 (not in any way saying this is even close to similar!)...i.e., flip back to a cold and good pattern right in time for the close of January after a warm spell.  Or a Feb. 2015 kind of deal, usher in a few final weeks with a blast, haha!  But that said, I really don't think this advertised pattern breakdown is something we're going to avoid.

Also, as others have said, this may not be a t-shirts and shorts torch pattern...but just simply awful for anything wintry.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro is a complete fail with regards to ice monday. What a drastic difference from our biggest ice storm in years 2 days ago

Euro is dead to me. Reap em' Wx007

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro is a complete fail with regards to ice monday. What a drastic difference from our biggest ice storm in years 2 days ago

Now ur catchin on....a year of surprises...so far  

dont think I/we do t feel ur pain as we all wanted weeks of deep powder like those cool Swiss Instagram pics that pop up on my screen.  Then I remembered where I live, Looked up and saw white(ish) ground....and all was well. 

Was it me or did the -EPO look to be loomin  at end of 12 Gfs?  Thought I saw that before I left the office. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Now ur catchin on....a year of surprises...so far  

dont think I/we do t feel ur pain as we all wanted weeks of deep powder like those cool Swiss Instagram pics that pop up on my screen.  Then I remembered where I live, Looked up and saw white(ish) ground....and all was well. 

Was it me or did the -EPO look to be loomin  at end of 12 Gfs?  Thought I saw that before I left the office. 

Certainly not the Op run.  Maybe the GEFS but I didn’t see them 

[Chris78]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro is a complete fail with regards to ice monday. What a drastic difference from our biggest ice storm in years 2 days ago

Fail from temps, precip, or Both? Lol

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Certainly not the Op run.  Maybe the GEFS but I didn’t see them 

GEFS keeps the -EPO ridge going strong through about hr270. Then the GOA trough swings in and it’s torch city. Actually the pattern on the GEFS looks decent around the 14-16th before the torch. Nice PNA ridge axis and the WAR nearby to keep the flow backed toward us. After the 16th it’s a torch, but the AO is clearly negative, maybe quite negative.