mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 need to get Midlo to make some snow on Ji's front lawn before he loses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Looking better and better for some elevated thunderstorms starting Thursday night. Might even get some surface-based stuff Fri evening or overnight. Need severe t'storms or meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: need to get Midlo to make some snow on Ji's front lawn before he loses it. Too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 You all can beat yourselves up over that Saturday cutter. But I'm still watching this for a possibly wave not showing up after it. The setup is there and it's not way out. A slightly stronger vort or more separation and something could easily end up here. After that there is a chance for the next vort diving in mid next week. After that we warm again for a few days. But if the worst we have to endure from the warm period is a few days if alternating warm/cold with some threats mixed in I can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Come on JI, think of the poor weenies in western PA whose hopes and dreams were just crushed by the GFS. Have you no heart, man.....have you no heart????????? It's the GFS that has no heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Now the GFS decides to lock into a system 7 days out and never waivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Deep Thunder is my model of choice at this point. GFS and EURO have been woeful. IBM makes deep thunder which makes it that much more credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 hours ago, mappy said: I guess that March storm last year didn't verify for most people, since we all got sleeted on. Don't think this is correct, IIRC.........March 13-14 2017 (the PSU storm he identified from a week or more out) had about 10" for PSU and we got about 7" here mostly snow. Pretty sure it was a progged to be a warning event area wide but warm nose turned it into a sleet fest east of I95 -- which for practical purposes makes it a bust (non-legit WSW event). Definitely agree that one the primary drivers to the higher level of frustration we're seeing this year is the sheer length of time since we've had a good clean WSW snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Don't think this is correct, IIRC.........March 13-14 2017 (the PSU storm he identified from a week or more out) had about 10" for PSU and we got about 7" here mostly snow. Pretty sure it was a progged to be a warning event area wide but warm nose turned it into a sleet fest east of I95 -- which for practical purposes makes it a bust (non-legit WSW event). Definitely agree that one the primary drivers to the higher level of frustration we're seeing this year is the sheer length of time since we've had a good clean WSW snow around here. absolutely. this would ease much pain in weenie minds. I'm goint to start wearing a cup when watching model runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS shows nothing. Bobs promised digital snow is nowhere to be found. Even the canadien which gives us snow in August has nothing.....complete disaster at Noon again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: GFS shows nothing. Bobs promised digital snow is nowhere to be found. Even the canadien which gives us snow in August has nothing.....complete disaster at Noon again next week looks good down your way.......... drops keyboard.......runs for the door...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: GFS shows nothing. Bobs promised digital snow is nowhere to be found. Even the canadien which gives us snow in August has nothing.....complete disaster at Noon again Stay strong Ji -- remember this is the year where only sub-48hr storms trend in our favor and verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You all can beat yourselves up over that Saturday cutter. But I'm still watching this for a possibly wave not showing up after it. The setup is there and it's not way out. A slightly stronger vort or more separation and something could easily end up here. After that there is a chance for the next vort diving in mid next week. After that we warm again for a few days. But if the worst we have to endure from the warm period is a few days if alternating warm/cold with some threats mixed in I can live with that. Yeah, that caught my eye as well. Still very little surface reflection, but more on the 12z GFS than any run before. That vort pass should be doing more at the surface than what it shows I’d think. Especially if the boundary can hang up to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS shows nothing. Bobs promised digital snow is nowhere to be found. Even the canadien which gives us snow in August has nothing.....complete disaster at Noon again Dude, it showed an inverted trough flurry fest. Come on man. Give me some credit. IVTs are easy to lock in @ 180 hours too. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Deep Thunder is my model of choice at this point. GFS and EURO have been woeful. IBM makes deep thunder which makes it that much more credible. You failed me last week. 9 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Don't think this is correct, IIRC.........March 13-14 2017 (the PSU storm he identified from a week or more out) had about 10" for PSU and we got about 7" here mostly snow. Pretty sure it was a progged to be a warning event area wide but warm nose turned it into a sleet fest east of I95 -- which for practical purposes makes it a bust (non-legit WSW event). Definitely agree that one the primary drivers to the higher level of frustration we're seeing this year is the sheer length of time since we've had a good clean WSW snow around here. NE Balti Zen was very specific. Area wide, which includes EVERYONE, more specifically, the beltway areas. Last event to verify with area wide warning level snows was Jan 2016 blizzard. yes, the March 2017 verified in SOME spots. So did the two Feb events in 2017 (one north, one south) but it was not area wide warning level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Don't think this is correct, IIRC.........March 13-14 2017 (the PSU storm he identified from a week or more out) had about 10" for PSU and we got about 7" here mostly snow. Pretty sure it was a progged to be a warning event area wide but warm nose turned it into a sleet fest east of I95 -- which for practical purposes makes it a bust (non-legit WSW event). Definitely agree that one the primary drivers to the higher level of frustration we're seeing this year is the sheer length of time since we've had a good clean WSW snow around here. also https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow&date=20170314&option=snow Manchester = 7" Berryville = 3.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Feels an awful lot like late November early December when the models were ugly with warm then well...you know. Sure would like some snow this go around when the models finally figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 70 degrees for Valentines day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: 70 degrees for Valentines day? I can have a romantic picnic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This is a more expensive painful version of 01-02. Can't even send my kids out to sled on snow days. Wanna know why??? BECAUSE THERE IS NO SNOW. THAT'S WHY Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: This is a more expensive painful version of 01-02. Can't even send my kids out to sled on snow days. Wanna know why??? BECAUSE THERE IS NO SNOW. THAT'S WHY Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Come on. I can't imagine that your children would want to do anything but spend all their time with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I know it doesn't help but it is only January 9th. That cold snap sure does make it feel like we are in deep February about to plant flowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: This is a more expensive painful version of 01-02. Can't even send my kids out to sled on snow days. Wanna know why??? BECAUSE THERE IS NO SNOW. THAT'S WHY Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk My gas bill was $12 last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: My gas bill was $12 last month Woodstove? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The weeklies January torch week is wall to wall cold on the GFS.....and snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yup, Ji has lost it. @WxWatcher007 come claim another poor bastard unable to handle weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: This is a more expensive painful version of 01-02. Can't even send my kids out to sled on snow days. Wanna know why??? BECAUSE THERE IS NO SNOW. THAT'S WHY Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk OK. We get it, Ji. If it's not showing February 2010, then it's the absolute worst model run of our lives! Crikey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The good news is the gfs reverts back to the early Jan base state d12+. The bad news is that base state sucked for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good news is the gfs reverts back to the early Jan base state d12+. The bad news is that base state sucked for snow here. I still believe we need a substantial thaw (as in 10-14 days) to clear the table. If not, we're going to need the atmosphere to act differently with the same base state. It can happen, but I prefer an impressive thaw first. Jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I still believe we need a substantial thaw (as in 10-14 days) to clear the table. If not, we're going to need the atmosphere to act differently with the same base state. It can happen, but I prefer an impressive thaw first. Jmho. Delaying this thaw period (as the GEFS/EPS keep showing) and shortening it is probably a bad thing here. No way we can hope for a thaw to flip patterns come February, because by the time that thaw is done, we're already staring at Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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