showmethesnow Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Got room for one more ..lol . Anyway...Gfs has a nice 6 day stretch ( again) of below freezing highs coming and plenty of vort energy constantly rotating thru - excellent chance imo of something popping in the medium short range. and it's not storm squashing cold like last time ...our odds have to be pretty decent to score at least a light to mod event by day 10. Bring the beer and I think we can squeeze another person in. Still thinking we will at least see a fantasy snow storm or two through that period but whether that translates to reality is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, H2O said: now I am sad. I thought that having to go to get my cable TV boxes was enough to make me sad but this takes the cake. Bama winning didn't make me sad. Having a hangnail didn't make me sad. Not having any consonants in Words with Friends didn't make me sad. This made me sad. I think my role on this board is to help properly quantify and measure sadness. We are rapidly approaching the two year and one month stretch from Feb '11 to March '13 that BobC referenced in the panic thread for fallow periods between warning level events. It explains some of the frustration people are feeling anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah - I'm not counting that one for me with regard to snowfall - but I could see where others might take a different position. For me, shoveling snow is where it's at, and I think we have not had a warning level area-wide snow event since the '16 storm/blizzard. Looking at GIS data now for warnings: Feb 15/16 failed, at least up here. Southern areas cashed in Feb 9 verified for far northern areas then the Jan 2016 blizzard so yes, looks like thats the last verified area wide warning event we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It is good to see an active pattern upcoming on the models. This mornings GFS run is very close to something nice out here this weekend. Seems to be trending in a better direction at least. Everything this year and 13/14 was timing based. And it hasnt worked out for the Shenandoah Valley so far this winter. Maybe this one is our chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is good to see an active pattern upcoming on the models. This mornings GFS run is very close to something nice out here this weekend. Seems to be trending in a better direction at least. Everything this year and 13/14 was timing based. And it hasnt worked out for the Shenandoah Valley so far this winter. Maybe this one is our chance. Yeah, it looks like a much more active pattern coming up, and while we may lose some, we also may score some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, poolz1 said: What a nice storm too....frustration mounts. Put that storm on the VA Cape and we are set. Great moisture tap and a good strong low...grrrrrrr. Maybe banter/panic. Maybe the Panic Room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, it looks like a much more active pattern coming up, and while we may lose some, we also may score some. Not writing off weekend just yet. A little more dig and further SE with that dig at h5 could make a difference for some. Long shot but everything seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is good to see an active pattern upcoming on the models. This mornings GFS run is very close to something nice out here this weekend. Seems to be trending in a better direction at least. Everything this year and 13/14 was timing based. And it hasnt worked out for the Shenandoah Valley so far this winter. Maybe this one is our chance. Yeah I think that Winchester back through Canaan has a chance of accumulation after a changeover. The only problem is the Euro/EPS are well NW of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I think that Winchester back through Canaan has a chance of accumulation after a changeover. The only problem is the Euro/EPS are well NW of the GFS. You have been following along this winter, so I'd use short term memory when using the Euro/EPS as a benchmark for your thinking. Furthermore, while the EPS is NW of GEPS/GEFS, it is not markedly so. IMO Euro will (just like last storm), trend towards the GFS (although I'm not suggesting the GFS is on point either). Just the way its been going this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: You have been following along this winter, so I'd use short term memory when using the Euro/EPS as a benchmark for your thinking. Furthermore, while the EPS is NW of GEPS/GEFS, it is not markedly so. IMO Euro will (just like last storm), trend towards the GFS (although I'm not suggesting the GFS is on point either). Just the way its been going this year. Yeah I hope, it would be cool for the western burbs to cash in on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I hope, it would be cool for the western burbs to cash in on something. Sure would. Western locals are really due. This storm seems to have eyes for them. Will be interesting to see what the next day or so of model hugging shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Everyone's favorite Deep Thunder model is SE more...decent backside snow I-95 west Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Everyone's favorite Deep Thunder model is SE more...decent backside snow I-95 west Saturday. lol. i saw that the other week. What in the sam hill is that model and is it really going to be incorporated into future model suit for consideration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: lol. i saw that the other week. What in the sam hill is that model and is it really going to be incorporated into future model suit for consideration? One thing that we REALLY don't need is another model. Especially one that leans weenie and fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing that we REALLY don't need is another model. Especially one that leans weenie and fails. i heard it verified the best last week per PRO mets on twitter. Plus its IBM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 They have medication for leaning weenies, you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i heard it verified the best last week per PRO mets on twitter. Plus its IBM lol What? That thing jumps around like crazy and had us pegged for like 6 inches of snow the day before the event. Deep Thunder is like an upgraded RPM, in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: What? That thing jumps around like crazy and had us pegged for like 6 inches of snow the day before the event. Deep Thunder is like an upgraded RPM, in my mind. IIRC, it verified great for NYC (showed appropriate amounts for NYC which ended up correct). Naso much for DC like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 welp...as usual...when we need the GFS to make a favorable shift...it went the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: welp...as usual...when we need the GFS to make a favorable shift...it went the other way I'll be in Europe for the valley. Godspeed man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Deep Thunder was terrible everywhere south of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looking better and better for some elevated thunderstorms starting Thursday night. Might even get some surface-based stuff Fri evening or overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 this looks like a great storm for Ohio. Not fair. One storm too east...one storm west....WHEN IS IT OUR TURN??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: this looks like a great storm for Ohio. Not fair. One storm too east...one storm west....WHEN IS IT OUR TURN??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: this looks like a great storm for Ohio. Not fair. One storm too east...one storm west....WHEN IS IT OUR TURN??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? We need to have storms go too far North and too far South first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: this looks like a great storm for Ohio. Not fair. One storm too east...one storm west....WHEN IS IT OUR TURN??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Hugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Come on JI, think of the poor weenies in western PA whose hopes and dreams were just crushed by the GFS. Have you no heart, man.....have you no heart????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What? That thing jumps around like crazy and had us pegged for like 6 inches of snow the day before the event. Deep Thunder is like an upgraded RPM, in my mind. To be fair we have no idea how it's doing because all models jump run to run some but when we see all the info we can judge which was best overall. We only see the deep thunder when someone posts (usually a weenie) run. I'm not saying it's doing well just that judging it based on a random run or two listed by snow weenies like Burk is a bad method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this looks like a great storm for Ohio. Not fair. One storm too east...one storm west....WHEN IS IT OUR TURN??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? the one after the one that follows this weekends events... is the one to watch I can feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hugs pills........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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