January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing to loo for as a long shot type of thing that wouldnt show up yet but can pop up closer. Even if the second storm does cut the trough doesn't swing through fast and there is a window for another wave. Models have hinted at it by having some lingering snow showers on some runs with the energy swinging through behind the cutter. So far the energy has been too discreet to get enough surface reflection to be more then that but it wouldn't take much and that's something worth watching. After that the 16th looks like the next window. 

This year is really bad for long range stuff. Last year was easy...few opportunities and little to track. Year before was easy....warm warm warm and then a long track start to finish then back to warm. This year keeps morphing in the med range. All guidance will agree on a general look out time, then a model war ensues leading into the med range, and by the time we get a clear idea (inside of d6) it doesn't resemble where we started. 

The one big storm the last 2-3 weeks was nothing more than random chaos causing 4 pieces to work in harmony and blow up big. That wasn't a function of classic longwave features putting together a "normal storm". It was a shorter lead version of our 16 blizzard. Things just decided to break right in the middle of a bad pattern for snow anywhere in the east. 

I really hope we get some stable blocking going for 4 weeks. At least have something more predictable working for us. I totally agree with the post I quoted. The most likely chance at something (whatever that means) is the 3-4 days after the front clears. The problem is that anything ops show us right now have zero chance at happening as advertised. The fact the the euro and gfs try and put together a light event inside of 10 days is nothing more than a hint that it can snow. How it happens (if it does) will just sorta come together and it likely won't be any of the ways that ops are showing right now. Sure would be nice to have a general sense of discrete features lining up but it's just not that kind of year. 

 

[Bob Chill]

And to add to my blah blah blah wordy post...the thing that made a fast progressive pattern fun in 13-15 was the crosshairs moved around but they generally put specific areas under the gun at different times. When things lined up we had lots of stuff to discuss for many days. This year is very different in that regard. Even our one decent event was nothing discussion worthy until like 72 hours before it happened. I'm still mad at all the ops and ens teasing us with the juiced stj look we got back in Dec. Usually when you see that kind oF  agreement it happens in some form for sombody. Not completely vaporize and turn into something nobody saw coming. Nobody said record breaking long duration cold was coming until it was already here. 

This winter is going to drive Ji nuts unless we get some stability. I personally could care less that ops aren't showing storms next week becuase if they did all it would do is make people mad as they disappear. It's an under d5 year more than any I can remember recently. 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And to add to my blah blah blah wordy post...the thing that made a fast progressive pattern fun in 13-15 was the crosshairs moved around but they generally put specific areas under the gun at different times. When things lined up we had lots of stuff to discuss for many days. This year is very different in that regard. Even our one decent event was nothing discussion worthy until like 72 hours before it happened. I'm still mad at all the ops and ens teasing us with the juiced stj look we got back in Dec. Usually when you see that kind oF  agreement it happens in some form for sombody. Not completely vaporize and turn into something nobody saw coming. Nobody said record breaking long duration cold was coming until it was already here. 

This winter is going to drive Ji nuts unless we get some stability. I personally could care less that ops aren't showing storms next week becuase if they did all it would do is make people mad as they disappear. It's an under d5 year more than any I can remember recently. 

Well said Bob. You’ve had a level head this year and a steady hand no matter the outcome. Keep at it. Hoping what your sniffing out longe range comes about. 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And to add to my blah blah blah wordy post...the thing that made a fast progressive pattern fun in 13-15 was the crosshairs moved around but they generally put specific areas under the gun at different times. When things lined up we had lots of stuff to discuss for many days. This year is very different in that regard. Even our one decent event was nothing discussion worthy until like 72 hours before it happened. I'm still mad at all the ops and ens teasing us with the juiced stj look we got back in Dec. Usually when you see that kind oF  agreement it happens in some form for sombody. Not completely vaporize and turn into something nobody saw coming. Nobody said record breaking long duration cold was coming until it was already here. 

This winter is going to drive Ji nuts unless we get some stability. I personally could care less that ops aren't showing storms next week becuase if they did all it would do is make people mad as they disappear. It's an under d5 year more than any I can remember recently. 

Sounds like this is gonna truly be a "wild card" winter if things keep going like this, lol  (guess that could be kinda fun...but also maddening not having anything consistent to latch onto!).

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well said Bob. You’ve had a level head this year and a steady hand no matter the outcome. Keep at it. Hoping what your sniffing out longe range comes about. 

Appreciate it man. Honeslty, I've been pretty bored with this winter. It's been good enough to not have fun making meltdown posts and it's been way too volatile and mediocre to honk the horn. 

Sometime around the 24th is the target date for a return to cold (or less warm) in the LR. Next week will have a solid cold period but a fast warmup seems nearly a lock at this point. Next break is just starting to show some clarity. 

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Appreciate it man. Honeslty, I've been pretty bored with this winter. It's been good enough to not have fun making meltdown posts and it's been way too volatile and mediocre to honk the horn. 

Sometime around the 24th is the target date for a return to cold (or less warm) in the LR. Next week will have a solid cold period but a fast warmup seems nearly a lock at this point. Next break is just starting to show some clarity. 

Yeah saw the18z and looks like chances for sure. As suggested though, long range is somewhat unbelievable as only a few days ago some thought we we headed warm and not coming back, and we’re already looking at at least some chances (western locals can’t write this weekend off yet). Will be interesting to see where this train is headed. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill

I totally agree with your analysis of the situation and that unless we get a stable blocking and active stj regime this isn't a long tracking year. The models haven't been good at getting specific storms right from range. But I feel like that's typical in any year that's northern stream dominant or without blocking. Even if we get blocking if it's all northern steam vorts flying by at 100 mph the models aren't going to resolve details at range.  

About the only time models can nail a storm from day 7+ and hold the idea is when we have a southern stream system attacking cold with blocking. That setup is classic and stable and the models can sniff it way out. It's as close to a can't miss as we get. They don't always end up an HECS. I remember a setup like that in 2004 I think that just ended up a solid 5-8" event across our area. We got the overrunning but the coastal redevelopment was slow and so New England got that part. But we still scored. But in general if we see a strong system coming tapped into the stj with cold and blocking bet on snow. Any other setup and we have to fight for it.

Whats going on now feels more typical for models in progressive patterns.  Last year they didn't get anything right from range.  They teased us in mid December then with the early January event then with that early February wave. Even in march when we got a cold pattern they teased us with that west to east gradient system that ended up suppressed only to tease us with the coastal until 24-36 hours out when it became a sleet storm.  The models weren't right about much from 4+ days out in 2014 or 2015 either but we got snow enough that no one cared.  We only complain about busts when it's a negative one.  

I think the problem this year is it's been consistently cold putting us in the game by default and so it's frustrating when it doesn't snow.  Once the models lost the stj around xmas they pretty much nailed the dryness we just didn't believe it.  Now they are having huge issues resolving things past day 7 in a pattern change but that's not new either.  It's just more frustrating because we've been so cold without much to show for it so every tease is a knife.

Most of our snow comes from less then perfect setups but it's frustrating because we score from a few lucky hits off many many chances most of which are fails. 2014 was just an aberration. 2015 with all the fails before we finally hit a few in feb and mar was more typical but even that year we hit more then we should minus blocking.   If we get legit blocking we could still pull off a big win. Without it we seem to have a winter where cold wins so we could still luck our way to a decent year with just a couple hits. I'm hopeful at what I'm seeing up high. I doubt the Pacific stays too hostile forever. And we could luck our way to something without an ideal PAC if blocking is real. But if we could time the two up...I'll keep dreaming. 

Hows that for a blah blah blah wordy post. 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah saw the18z and looks like chances for sure. As suggested though, long range is somewhat unbelievable as only a few days ago some thought we we headed warm and not coming back, and we’re already looking at at least some chances (western locals can’t write this weekend off yet). Will be interesting to see where this train is headed. 

I think the gefs is rushing it. It's bouncing back and forth but the way out is the same as the geps/eps. The eps trimmed mean highs d15 (23rd). I scanned the member temp panels and it's 1 in 4 punching the warmth out by the end (including the control run). 

I do think the warmup next week is real though and not a mirage. There is so much support across means and ens memebers that I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen. When it breaks it looks like what we're seeing this weekend. Strong front/cold continental hp. The big question is it a repeat of this week or a new regime? No clue personally but if I had to guess it's prob a repeat. If it's a new regime and the -ao is real then we'll walk into Feb with the best pattern of met winter. We can dream....lol

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the gefs is rushing it. It's bouncing back and forth but the way out is the same as the geps/eps. The eps trimmed mean highs d15 (23rd). I scanned the member temp panels and it's 1 in 4 punching the warmth out by the end (including the control run). 

I do think the warmup next week is real though and not a mirage. There is so much support across means and ens memebers that I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen. When it breaks it looks like what we're seeing this weekend. Strong front/cold continental hp. The big question is it a repeat of this week or a new regime? No clue personally but if I had to guess it's prob a repeat. If it's a new regime and the -ao is real then we'll walk into Feb with the best pattern of met winter. We can dream....lol

Yeah late next week def looks warm but towards the end you can see quite the gradient pressing down on 850’s.  

[cae]

There was some talk earlier about the timing of the new FV3-GFS.  I looked around on Twitter and found this.

 

[BristowWx]

Basically nothing of interest next 15 days on 0z GFS.  Not even fantasy snow. 

[Interstate]

I have seen this CMC look before

[Cobalt]

37 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Basically nothing of interest next 15 days on 0z GFS.  Not even fantasy snow. 

GEFS just as boring. Not many snow opportunities if it's right. Hopefully we can get a light event in the 5 day period from Sunday-Thursday that pops up in the Med-short range. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This means a much bigger -AO is coming



saturation like an ink blot

It will probably max out >+500dm. 

late January could be the best pattern in a long time. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

January 13 could be a legitimate snowfall threat if this trailing low gets going. aesthetics say the Midwest low is going to shift, probably to colder. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

This means a much bigger -AO is coming



saturation like an ink blot
It will probably max out >+500dm. 
late January could be the best pattern in a long time. 

The -AO could be >+600 and still be a non-factor here if the trof off the NW that is forecast to anchor in ends up verifying. Ens and weeklies all have this look. If that low setting up off the W Canada/NW US Coast comes to fruition and we get no ATL help......the reaper is going to run out of rooms. We could still score during peak climo but probably more luck and snow->rain type stuff. Maybe this is how we get our chances this year? GEPS are prolonged and sustained AN temps with no end evident thru the range. GEFS are more seasonal looking in the LR with muted +/- 2m anomalies. Dont reap me yet, Im not cancelling anything just cautioning the facts.

[Ralph Wiggum]

January 13 could be a legitimate snowfall threat if this trailing low gets going. aesthetics say the Midwest low is going to shift, probably to colder. 

Not cold enough nor fast enough for I95 and the cities South of NYC. This looks like a far NW/interior event. With the NAVGEM as the farthest West track there is your red flag. Poor confluence position, no blocking, no antecedent cold air mass in place.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

always wanted to post one of these

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

28 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

January 13 could be a legitimate snowfall threat if this trailing low gets going. aesthetics say the Midwest low is going to shift, probably to colder. 

Not cold enough nor fast enough for I95 and the cities South of NYC. This looks like a far NW/interior event. With the NAVGEM as the farthest West track there is your red flag. Poor confluence position, no blocking, no antecedent cold air mass in place.

I can see where patterns are off. This midwest snowmap is off. doesn't mean the storm will move east, but with enough space after the first one maybe. 00z gfs is pretty close. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

 

The -AO could be >+600 and still be a non-factor here if the trof off the NW that is forecast to anchor in ends up verifying. Ens and weeklies all have this look. If that low setting up off the W Canada/NW US Coast comes to fruition and we get no ATL help......the reaper is going to run out of rooms. We could still score during peak climo but probably more luck and snow->rain type stuff. Maybe this is how we get our chances this year? GEPS are prolonged and sustained AN temps with no end evident thru the range. GEFS are more seasonal looking in the LR with muted +/- 2m anomalies. Dont reap me yet, Im not cancelling anything just cautioning the facts.

 

La Nina stuff has been overestimated on models all Winter. 850mb winds are suppose to be strong, but that's factored in and probably overdone. 

[Jebman]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

 

The -AO could be >+600 and still be a non-factor here if the trof off the NW that is forecast to anchor in ends up verifying. Ens and weeklies all have this look. If that low setting up off the W Canada/NW US Coast comes to fruition and we get no ATL help......the reaper is going to run out of rooms. We could still score during peak climo but probably more luck and snow->rain type stuff. Maybe this is how we get our chances this year? GEPS are prolonged and sustained AN temps with no end evident thru the range. GEFS are more seasonal looking in the LR with muted +/- 2m anomalies. Dont reap me yet, Im not cancelling anything just cautioning the facts.

 

Not in my case, I have several other engrossing hobbies. Thats how I got thru last winter too.

That Northwestern Trough verifies and verifies yuge, I'll just go straight to my other hobbies that I love.

Good luck to us, and good luck to all in this subforum, many deserve snow this winter.

I still believe strongly that we WILL get lots of snow this winter.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

32 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

January 13 could be a legitimate snowfall threat if this trailing low gets going. aesthetics say the Midwest low is going to shift, probably to colder. 

Not cold enough nor fast enough for I95 and the cities South of NYC. This looks like a far NW/interior event. With the NAVGEM as the farthest West track there is your red flag. Poor confluence position, no blocking, no antecedent cold air mass in place.

Yep, not looking good though the 06Z did shift a touch east with the track. Thinking I might pay a visit to my father-in-law outside of Pittsburgh this weekend if it looks to stay just far enough east up there. Might be good for a foot/foot and a half. 06Z did have a somewhat interesting setup around Tuesday. But 06z, enough said there.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Yep, not looking good though the 06Z did shift a touch east with the track. Thinking I might pay a visit to my father-in-law outside of Pittsburgh this weekend if it looks to stay just far enough east up there. Might be good for a foot/foot and a half. 06Z did have a somewhat interesting setup around Tuesday. But 06z, enough said there.

Yep, I am going up to Lake George for this one. I can't wait!

 

Yes, 6Z GFS offers us some hope, too bad its at hour 180. Those are usually gone in 1 run.

[poolz1]

What a nice storm too....frustration mounts.  Put that storm on the VA Cape and we are set.  Great moisture tap and a good strong low...grrrrrrr.  Maybe banter/panic.

 

[MD Snow]

6z nam made a sizable shift east with the Saturday storm and actually doesn’t look that bad at h5 for our area if I were to extrapolate. GFS has shifted east its last 2 runs and now has far northern and western areas changing over to a mix before precipitation ends. NAVGEM also made a sizable shift east at 6z. This one doesn’t really have a chance for the cities but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a changeover take place for areas north and west. Really wouldn’t take much more of a shift east to see this happen. 

[North Balti Zen]

Am I correct that the last most of the forum (to include the beltways) area wide winter storm warning level event that verified was the January 2016 storm? If so, it has been almost two years since our last area-wide 5-inch or greater warned storm...

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Am I correct that the last most of the forum (to include the beltways) area wide winter storm warning level event that verified was the January 2016 storm? If so, it has been almost two years since our last area-wide 5-inch or greater warned storm...

I guess that March storm last year didn't verify for most people, since we all got sleeted on. 

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, mappy said:

I guess that March storm last year didn't verify for most people, since we all got sleeted on. 

Yeah - I'm not counting that one for me with regard to snowfall - but I could see where others might take a different position. For me, shoveling snow is where it's at, and I think we have not had a warning level area-wide snow event since the '16 storm/blizzard.

[smokeybandit]

That March storm was the biggest storm of the season!  Basically it was the tallest midget.

[H2O]

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Am I correct that the last most of the forum (to include the beltways) area wide winter storm warning level event that verified was the January 2016 storm? If so, it has been almost two years since our last area-wide 5-inch or greater warned storm...

now I am sad.  I thought that having to go to get my cable TV boxes was enough to make me sad but this takes the cake.  Bama winning didn't make me sad.  Having a hangnail didn't make me sad. Not having any consonants in Words with Friends didn't make me sad.

 

This made me sad.