mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I'd say the GEPS are on board with a -AO...looks very similar the euro op. and it's also on board then for a hostile Pacific that's raising heights in the Conus and giving us a west to east zonal flow that low sitting over the Pac NW is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: and it's also on board then for a hostile Pacific that's raising heights in the Conus and giving us a west to east zonal flow that low sitting over the Pac NW is killing us yep...i have seen -AO's that havent done a thing for us. whats really killing us all winter is a non southern jet...if we were below average in precip...we would of gotten good snow this winter but we literally have gotten no precipitation since Dec 8. Like zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: and it's also on board then for a hostile Pacific that's raising heights in the Conus and giving us a west to east zonal flow that low sitting over the Pac NW is killing us Oh, no doubt about it...I'm just looking for sign that the warmup will muted/short lived. Some legit blocking is a silver lining in an otherwise crappy pattern on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ji said: yep...i have seen -AO's that havent done a thing for us. whats really killing us all winter is a non southern jet...if we were below average in precip...we would of gotten good snow this winter but we literally have gotten no precipitation since Dec 8. Like zero I miss the mighty EL NINO eh........................ make that moderate intensity and West based please :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The Ukie who's usually on the west side of guidance is not far from workable Saturdsy . It also has more separation between the n and s streams allowing higher hieghts to build over top like Euro ..maybe even looks a hair better then big brother . Interesting, looks a little more like the 6z NAVGEM. Ukie isn't loading on the usual page for me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Had to dig deep into the euro ens but I pulled this one out just for Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Had to dig deep into the euro ens but I pulled this one out just for Ji I am in. Should have my snowblower back by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Had to dig deep into the euro ens but I pulled this one out just for Ji I didn't know I still knew how to cry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I didn't know I still knew how to cry.... I just watched Coco with the kids. It totally made me shed a few tears And if we get crushed by what’s depicted on that map, I’ll cry again damn it...and watch Coco again just because... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I didn't know I still knew how to cry.... Statistically, it's a 1 in 51 chance but hey....there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Temperature is above freezing outside... 35 degrees. It's getting a little hot outside so i'm gonna wear my shorts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Temperature is above freezing outside... 35 degrees. It's getting a little hot outside so i'm gonna wear my shorts now. Thanks for sharing oh and did Delaware have school today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, folks often forget that we have about a 150-200 mile wide favorable storm track and about 1,000 mile wide unfavorable one. lol. West is west. Period. But that window is like 1,000 miles and we can still get rain. The snow side of things is almost 1/10th of that. There is also a lesser margin of track for cutter type systems impacted by the Apps and also the Rockies. It usually leads to a track somewhere between Altoona and over or just east of Cincy. It’s a narrow corridor. Almost no systems track over central or eastern Indiana and very few over western Indiana and Chicago because it requires a nasty dig over the southern plains which is infrequent. Generally most Chicago cutter snows were big OKC snows a day or two before and OKC doesnt see very many big snows. The possible paths for coastal huggers or nor’easters is much wider so we see more change in track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This looks like a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I think there is model error in the long range, switch to warm is actually a cold pattern (in other words, this doesn't happen) looks like 97-98 and 15-16, maybe because daily -16 SOI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 18z looking better at 500 after weekend app runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Looks like incoming on 18z gfs....unless it cuts (our throats) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: Looks like incoming on 18z gfs....unless it cuts (our throats) more likely to fall apart as it approaches us than cut lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just get a true blue(red) -AO. EPO got us this far with winter and if the Pac loses its mojo then get the pole and Atlantic to buckle flow and see what happens when we get into favorable climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 the system on the west coast is trying to ruin our fun...maybe we will get 2-4 from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 so it looks like per Euro and GFS...January 16-17 is a day to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 At least Salisbury doesn't get crushed again. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 18z GFS at hr 204 looks more like a classic storm around here. I95 being the usual dividing line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: 18z GFS at hr 204 looks more like a classic storm around here. I95 being the usual dividing line... looks so flawed and paltry but its something...its a start. Hopefully we can see better solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: At least Salisbury doesn't get crushed again. Lol Bite your tongue . We supply your chicken nuggets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 maybe the Jan 16 storm is that jan 2001 storm that PSU mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: maybe the Jan 16 storm is that jan 2001 storm that PSU mentioned The 2001 storm was a wave that developed immediately following a rainstorm that got the front under us. That would be more like if the Saturday thing worked out. Didn't look today but there were a couple coastals a few days after the analog periods yesterday. That's probably indicative of the 16tg threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 2001 storm was a wave that developed immediately following a rainstorm that got the front under us. That would be more like if the Saturday thing worked out. Didn't look today but there were a couple coastals a few days after the analog periods yesterday. That's probably indicative of the 16tg threat. yep. Problem with the first rain storm this week is that its cutting through Western wisconsin and not Western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: yep. Problem with the first rain storm this week is that its cutting through Western wisconsin and not Western PA Yea and not enough separation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ji said: yep. Problem with the first rain storm this week is that its cutting through Western wisconsin and not Western PA One thing to loo for as a long shot type of thing that wouldnt show up yet but can pop up closer. Even if the second storm does cut the trough doesn't swing through fast and there is a window for another wave. Models have hinted at it by having some lingering snow showers on some runs with the energy swinging through behind the cutter. So far the energy has been too discreet to get enough surface reflection to be more then that but it wouldn't take much and that's something worth watching. After that the 16th looks like the next window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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