RevWarReenactor Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Kind of surprised people are holding out hope on the weekend deal. I am chasing the storm 400 miles north of here, and even there mixing issues look possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 hours ago, Ji said: of course when the models show a cutter in the long range...nothing changes... Cutters move around also. But we don't care/notice. When a storm is cutting without blocking or cold in front we have no chance so we don't care if the track ends up being over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, or Chicago. The result is the same here. But the models are screwing up the details out there just as much. It just doesn't matter to our snow chances. 12 hours ago, Ji said: yep....this certainly would mute/delay the 10-15 day warm period if its true Double edge sword. If we get arctic or Atlantic help to mute the warmup from the Pacific pattern great and we could score something but it also means the two aren't aligned. The PAC could also prevent the AO or nao from giving us snow and then when the epo reloads like I think it will we could lose the ao/nao. So on the positive no long term torch/shutout pattern. On the down side no omg great one either. But that said I'm not buying anything at all right now long term. Models are not resolving some pretty big pattern drivers consistently att. We're now delaying the warm period over a week already. No telling what will happen by day 10-15. But I have a sneaky suspicion by the time we enter any multiple day torch (if we ever do) the other side will be visible. This feels like a cold base state winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: Kind of surprised people are holding out hope on the weekend deal. I am chasing the storm 400 miles north of here, and even there mixing issues look possible. For the same reason we tracked a coastal that was modeled over Bermuda 96 hrs out last week. I know, I know, different set up etc. Let's wait until 0z tonight to write it off though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cutters move around also. But we don't care/notice. When a storm is cutting without blocking or cold in front we have no chance so we don't care if the track ends up being over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, or Chicago. The result is the same here. But the models are screwing up the details out there just as much. It just doesn't matter to our snow chances. Yea, folks often forget that we have about a 150-200 mile wide favorable storm track and about 1,000 mile wide unfavorable one. lol. West is west. Period. But that window is like 1,000 miles and we can still get rain. The snow side of things is almost 1/10th of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Bob keeping hope up - I see you in my mind's eye with respect to the upcoming weekend like in the LotR in the scene where Aragorn stood down a horde of orcs by himself at the end of the first movie. The orcs in this case are played by ers, and eskimo and others. Stand firm, Bobagorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like Euro keeps more separation between northern and southern stream allowing higher hieghts to build over top this run for Saturdsy...nice step Yes, big shift. Icy mess up in SNE and much closer to winter wx here compared to 0z. Still a ways to go but 5 days has been an eternity lead time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Heh, dusting of snow for much of MD/Nova west of 95 in the wee hours Sunday morning. It's the year of the trace. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, dusting of snow for much of MD/Nova west of 95 in the wee hours Sunday morning. It's the year of the trace. lol from what feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: from what feature? Upper level disturbance after the front clears. Looks like instability stuff. Overall it was a fairly large shift. NNE would be an historic ice storm if the run is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, dusting of snow for much of MD/Nova west of 95 in the wee hours Sunday morning. It's the year of the trace. lol This year reminds me more and more of 10-11. Just need a big ULL Hoffman storm to make it complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: from what feature? based on precip panels, looks like a litte wraparound love IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Upper level disturbance after the front clears. Looks like instability stuff. Overall it was a fairly large shift. NNE would be an historic ice storm if the run is right. While I know you've been thinking something might happen, and that models might catch on, I didnt thing the Euro would move that much. that was a large shift on the low placement and 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: based on precip panels, looks like a litte wraparound love IMO Very strong neutral/neg tilt vorticity rolling through @ 144 even thought the storm is way north by that time. NS disturbance d9 is another light event/trace. lol. That's how we roll this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Very strong neutral/neg tilt vorticity rolling through @ 144 even thought the storm is way north by that time. NS disturbance d9 is another light event/trace. lol. That's how we roll this year. yeah, but like you and others suggested, a warm shutout or a cold shutout is all the same. I'd rather take my chances w/ an active pattern and as we know, if you throw enough poop into the chute....somethings gonna stick. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: yeah, but like you and others suggested, a warm shutout or a cold shutout is all the same. I'd rather take my chances w/ an active pattern and as we know, if you throw enough poop into the chute....somethings gonna stick. lol We need the big red ball to set up shop for a month. Feb would be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Every single op is planting a stout -AO by d10. I don't think this is a fluke or a mirage. We need it to hang on until the pac syncs back up but it's not a bad thing to see right now no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We need the big red ball to set up shop for a month. Feb would be rockin. yeah no doubt. Hoping the next week shows us better tellies or at least something else to make this stick... I think there is enough disagreement in most everything we look at to suggest that it really is up in the air right now. Boy a rockin February would be fantastic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We need the big red ball to set up shop for a month. Feb would be rockin. Yeah, not a bad look there at all! Perhaps move the big red ball a tad farther south/southeast, maybe...and the trough/low off the Pacific coast a bit more to the west or southwest, ideally? In any event, looks like a -NAO at least in the forming stages and trying to return some form of a -EPO (or at least a +PNA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Every single op is planting a stout -AO by d10. I don't think this is a fluke or a mirage. We need it to hang on until the pac syncs back up but it's not a bad thing to see right now no matter how you slice it. not one model showed anything interesting on the surface today where we live. I know it will probably change but we have had no snow this and ensembles showing snow dosent give you the same tingle as the OP showing snow. With that said, i am hoping that the saturday storm is more progressive and less amplified. JMA and NAVGEM showed hints of it yesterday. That might be our best bet(Huge longshot) as nothing is really popping afterwards. The GEFS didnt look that great past this weekend from what i saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, not a bad look there at all! Perhaps move the big red ball a tad farther south/southeast, maybe...and the trough/low off the Pacific coast a bit more to the west or southwest, ideally? In any event, looks like a -NAO at least in the forming stages and trying to return some form of a -EPO (or at least a +PNA). It's pressing. Here's the next panel. It's not going to do it by itself because the pac isn't cooperating but it's been a long time since we've had a persistent -AO. Mid-late winter blocking episodes don't always give much warning. Some of the previous cases where blocking set in for Jan and/or Feb are 79-80, 82-83, 84-85, 86-87, 03-04, 04-05, and 06-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: not one model showed anything interesting on the surface today where we live. I know it will probably change but we have had no snow this and ensembles showing snow dosent give you the same tingle as the OP showing snow. With that said, i am hoping that the saturday storm is more progressive and less amplified. JMA and NAVGEM showed hints of it yesterday. That might be our best bet(Huge longshot) as nothing is really popping afterwards. The GEFS didnt look that great past this weekend from what i saw Euro gave me 1" d9. I'm good with that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, not a bad look there at all! Perhaps move the big red ball a tad farther south/southeast, maybe...and the trough/low off the Pacific coast a bit more to the west or southwest, ideally? In any event, looks like a -NAO at least in the forming stages and trying to return some form of a -EPO (or at least a +PNA). I just looked, and from my view a slightly -AO and POSSIBLY -NAO is what we have to bank on. I guess i could see how with a above a -PNA couldnt flood us w/ pacific air, and would argue for a zonal/bowlin ball kinda regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro gave me 1" d9. I'm good with that. lol you dont live in Georgia man...you live in a city that got you 80-90 inches in one winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: i question all apps runners and storms that give Ohio alot of snow I question ALL apps runners. It does happen, but not often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: you dont live in Georgia man...you live in a city that got you 80-90 inches in one winter lol I also live in a city that went without a 2-3" snowfall for 2.5 straight winters. And of course last year's beauty of a non-winter. It aint comin easy this year man. We all need to accept that until we're shoveling from the first of 2 Feb monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I also live in a city that went without a 2-3" snowfall for 2.5 straight winters. And of course last year's beauty of a non-winter. It aint comin easy this year man. We all need to accept that until we're shoveling from the first of 2 Feb monsters. Ji is like a millennial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I also live in a city that went without a 2-3" snowfall for 2.5 straight winters. And of course last year's beauty of a non-winter. It aint comin easy this year man. We all need to accept that until we're shoveling from the first of 2 Feb monsters. monster as defined in this year, or monster as defined in good years? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I'd say the GEPS are on board with a -AO...looks very similar the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Ji is like a millennial careful....there are quite a few on here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: monster as defined in this year, or monster as defined in good years? lol One of the key ingredients for a big storm is a -AO. Jan 16 was perfect. Just a crap winter overall but a perfect AO at a perfect time. Legit blocking episodes last 45 days on average. I have no idea if the block showing up is transient or legit. Time will tell there. If it's legit then odds of a big storm in Feb go way up. Still need things to break our way of course but we're always at a big disadvantage for good storms when the AO/NAO are positive on the means all winter. We can only pull off a 13-14 or 14-15 so often. All that luck is used up for a while. Probably 10 years. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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