January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Heisy]

Anyone want to road trip to Ohio? 

[Heisy]

@ 156 hours lot of energy dropping down on the backside of the trough on the CMC

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

welp--went the wrong way it looks

Could be the right way for all we know

[pasnownut]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Anyone want to road trip to Ohio? 

yes, the OP did.  I'll wait for ENS to decide.

[csnavywx]

Of course it did. No way in hell is a major trough that goes neutral over TX/LA/MS going to give snow to the east coast. Why are you all torturing yourselves over this one? Enjoy your January thunder.

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We probably need to get the amped mess out of the way and the trough to clear before the door opens. Can't rule anything out beyond hr96 but the weekend deal will probably be rain. No block and progressive flow is going to work against us for sure. This aint no 13/14

A good wash for the roads is needed. I'm okay with some rain. 

[Ji]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Of course it did. No way in hell is a major trough that goes neutral over TX/LA/MS going to give snow to the east coast. Why are you all torturing yourselves over this one? Enjoy your January thunder.

were hoping progressive wins again and this is all modeled wrong

[Heisy]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Of course it did. No way in hell is a major trough that goes neutral over TX/LA/MS going to give snow to the east coast. Why are you all torturing yourselves over this one? Enjoy your January thunder.

Agreed, I haven't browsed the forums in few days and I'm surprised people are even tracking this one. If you live on the East Coast our potential lies beyond this event. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Of course it did. No way in hell is a major trough that goes neutral over TX/LA/MS going to give snow to the east coast. Why are you all torturing yourselves over this one? Enjoy your January thunder.

I'm with you all of the way

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Of course it did. No way in hell is a major trough that goes neutral over TX/LA/MS going to give snow to the east coast. Why are you all torturing yourselves over this one? Enjoy your January thunder.

Looks like we're out of the game but perhaps Canaan Valley and areas far to the west could benefit with a little further east track. 

[Ji]

i question all apps runners and storms that give Ohio alot of snow

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Agreed, I haven't browsed the forums in few days and I'm surprised people are even tracking this one. If you live on the East Coast our potential lies beyond this event. 

with all due respect, the talk of the last few days was torchville/winters over, so in fairness, no matter the result, some of us are just happy to be tracking.  And to your point, yes, 500 looks nice after this event.

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

A good wash for the roads is needed. I'm okay with some rain. 

This. I have record salt accumulation on the roads where I live the crews have gone wild spreading it. I think they have bonus supply buildup from two dud winters and are trying to make room lol

 

[osfan24]

I question big snows for Ohio as well, and everything seems so progressive this year that it wouldn't take much of a shift to get this under us. Nothing else to track at the moment.

[Bob Chill]

These are the kinds of looks that put me in a good mood. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

These are the kinds of looks that put me in a good mood. 

Higher Heights over Greenland but not the look that i prefer for -NAO

[Ji]

GFS 500 map looking very boring so far on 12z for next week. Hard to get excited about this look

 

[Ji]

one of the worst GFS runs of the year...canadien was even worse. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

Higher Heights over Greenland but not the look that i prefer for -NAO

There is so much spread that run over run differences will produce many different looks. I just like the fact that a -AO is building smack dab in the middle of what looked like a terrible period just 4-5 days ago. I have no idea if it's the real deal that will last into Feb but you have to admit it's been a pretty abrupt shift over the pole. That's often how longer term blocking episodes present themselves. Out of nowhere. Especially the NAO. The AO has better accuracy at <10 day leads. The NAO is very volatile until <7 day leads. We're clearly in some sort of transition period. When it first showed up the transition looked like crapola. Every day that passes has been looking a little better. I'm not implying that we are suddenly going to enter a superstar blocking/blizzard period but there's a lot of winter left. If we get the AO/NAO to cooperate leading into Feb then we may have our first legit big storm period since Jan 16. 

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There is so much spread that run over run differences will produce many different looks. I just like the fact that a -AO is building smack dab in the middle of what looked like a terrible period just 4-5 days ago. I have no idea if it's the real deal that will last into Feb but you have to admit it's been a pretty abrupt shift over the pole. That's often how longer term blocking episodes present themselves. Out of nowhere. Especially the NAO. The AO has better accuracy at <10 day leads. The NAO is very volatile until <7 day leads. We're clearly in some sort of transition period. When it first showed up the transition looked like crapola. Every day that passes has been looking a little better. I'm not implying that we are suddenly going to enter a superstar blocking/blizzard period but there's a lot of winter left. If we get the AO/NAO to cooperate leading into Feb then we may have our first legit big storm period since Jan 16. 

There are indications that poleward heat transport weakens the PV mid to late month , I am surprised that the GFS is forecasting that degree of blocking. The same mechanisms   

that caused PV disruptions in December are forecast to happen again later in the month. But, like you said Bob, What is forecased here is only 174 hours away , and very abrupt shift..   

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There is so much spread that run over run differences will produce many different looks. I just like the fact that a -AO is building smack dab in the middle of what looked like a terrible period just 4-5 days ago. I have no idea if it's the real deal that will last into Feb but you have to admit it's been a pretty abrupt shift over the pole. That's often how longer term blocking episodes present themselves. Out of nowhere. Especially the NAO. The AO has better accuracy at <10 day leads. The NAO is very volatile until <7 day leads. We're clearly in some sort of transition period. When it first showed up the transition looked like crapola. Every day that passes has been looking a little better. I'm not implying that we are suddenly going to enter a superstar blocking/blizzard period but there's a lot of winter left. If we get the AO/NAO to cooperate leading into Feb then we may have our first legit big storm period since Jan 16. 

problem is, everything else is hostile and, verbatim GFS, has us with well above normal 2m temps in less than 48 hours after that map (starting at 210 hrs)

idk if it's right, but we apparently need more than just the blocking over top to fight off other hostile conditions

[frd]

 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

There are indications that poleward heat transport weakens the PV mid to late month , I am surprised that the GFS is forecasting that degree of blocking. The same mechanisms   

that caused PV disruptions in December are forecast to happen again later in the month. But, like you said Bob, What is forecased here is only 174 hours away , and very abrupt shift..   

Bob did promise us a digital snowstorm...not sure if he meant it for January 22 lol

 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

problem is, everything else is hostile and, verbatim GFS, has us with well above normal 2m temps in less than 48 hours after that map (starting at 210 hrs)

idk if it's right, but we apparently need more than just the blocking over top to fight off other hostile conditions

Let's just let it play out and see what happens. I don't trust any long range look. Run over run volatility is very high. The first thing we need to avoid is a prolonged warm period. If things look ripe in 2 weeks and early Feb is looking tasty then maybe we finally score a big storm. As far as the next 2 weeks goes...I haven't any idea how things are going to break other than prolonged warmth looks much less likely than it did just 5 days ago. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bob did promise us a digital snowstorm...not sure if he meant it for January 22 lol

 

I'm thinking an inside 10 day one. Should happen within the next 5 days. I do believe that we have as good a chance at something (real not fake) as we've had all year over the next 2 weeks. 

[Bob Chill]

Obviously the Pac isn't that good looking but there's a good side to that too. The primary reason precip chances are going way up in the med-long range is because of the storm cycle coming in off the Pac. It's not all bad having the -epo flip on us. -EPO's can be great for cold but unless there is some sort of Pac or GoM connection, they can be very dry. I'm sick of cold and dry. With a regular influx of storms coming into the west coast our chances of precip goes way up. All we need is seasonal air to make something work in Jan. It's clearly not a great look over the next 10-15 days but the odds of timing precip + cold enough air is MUCH higher than it's been lately. Flow is still really fast too so op runs are going to be all over the place in the med-long range so riding an emotional roller coaster every run is a waste of time. Hopefully by the end of this week we have a legit chance at timing precip and cold at the same time. 

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

This. I have record salt accumulation on the roads where I live the crews have gone wild spreading it. I think they have bonus supply buildup from two dud winters and are trying to make room lol

 

You should have salt measurements in your signature! LOL!

 

[MD Snow]

Did 12z GEFS shift more towards the operational for the weekend event? 

 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

one of the worst GFS runs of the year...canadien was even worse. 

Warm wet/Cold dry.

 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Did 12z GEFS shift more towards the operational for the weekend event? 

 

slight tick sw, but very marginally.  Here you go.  Surface track ideal.  Not sure if mid levels get far enough south (I dont have access).

Something to keep an eye on.