Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: quickest -ao of all time. by 384 its a disaster up there Let's see if it develops first before canceling. Lol Eps stepped away from the warmup too. Looks like 2 shots, then cutters, then cold....unless we get a block that cancels out the bad pac and we score. Odds of prolonged warmth seem to be declining. Maybe we finish Jan below normal after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's the strongest signal I've ever found, connecting patterns 25-40 days into the future. So, earlier you mentioned a strong -NOA building, is that still the case over the next 2 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Heh, I just checked the cmc and sure enough.... no way we get prolonged warmth if the gfs/cmc have it right a week to 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Very much like!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I think Ji hacked the gefs. Nearly half the 0z suite drops snow on us next weekend with several big hits. Lol. I'm skeptical as heck but hug worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I think Ji hacked the gefs. Nearly half the 0z suite drops snow on us next weekend with several big hits. Lol. I'm skeptical as heck but hug worthy. Yeah... this was me looking at the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 hours ago, yoda said: Yeah... this was me looking at the GEFS That’s a classic that one in the one with the kids at the birthday party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Looking over the GEFS and the EPS and I can't help but feel a sense of Deja Vu for next weekend. Both models seem to favor an initial low tracking into the Lakes with a secondary developing on the trailing cold front. Secondary then runs up through our general region and it is just a matter of whether the cold from the west gets in quickly enough to turn our wet to white. If this doesn't ring a bell think Christmas time. At this point the Eps heavily favors wet through DC/Balt, though the last 2 runs have picked up a little in regards to snow possibilities. The problem there is that going by the means the cold is 12-24 hours too late vs. the low. The GEFS on the other hand shows more promise with 7 members out of 21 (a third) with roughly 4 inches or more while the others show little to none. I will say though that a handful or so of these no/little snow members do show the cold is close as we see snow just above the Pa line and/or to our far west. Looking at the means on the GEFS the cold is literally knocking at the door as the southern low is running through the region. Now I am sure most remember what a booming success the Christmas time storm was. Which is to say, it wasn't. But I think there are several reasons to be more optimistic with the outcome in this case. First off I like the more progressive look with the cold that the GEFS has vs. the slower EPS. The EPS has been speeding this cold up run over run and I fully expect that to continue until it falls more into line with the GEFS. Another plus is that we are seeing this low develop over the deep south vs the Christmas time storm that was basically developing overhead. This adds two positive elements into the equation. First it allows more time for the cold to progress westward before the storm is in our region. Second it pulls a stronger developed storm through the region where it is better able to draw the cold air down into it vs the weak storm we saw Christmas time. I could see this easily being a case of rain to wet snow to cold powder. But we are 5+ days away so plenty can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 yayCPF ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 yep....this certainly would mute/delay the 10-15 day warm period if its trueShouldn't be surprising. Ens means have not been good until inside of 9 days (even then mediocre) and this has been the same song and dance since late Nov with the same players causing havoc with the lr progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Navy has what we want. Looks slower- more time for cold to seep in and less amped with good LP local on the follow up wave for Sat 6z Gefs had 4 or 5 decent hits Looks pretty nice. Would be cool to get some more models on board with this idea today. Obviously too far out to parse details but even with that good track it looks like thicknesses would be questionable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 39 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Looks pretty nice. Would be cool to get some more models on board with this idea today. Obviously too far out to parse details but even with that good track it looks like thicknesses would be questionable for us. subsequent panels show more snow and it looks like a long duration event as the trough moves very slowly weird evolution.....weird because it gives us snow and has the potential to give us a lot! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: subsequent panels show more snow and it looks like a long duration event as the trough moves very slowly weird evolution.....weird because it gives us snow and has the potential to give us a lot! lol The the GFS and Euro suite look to hold that trough in a favorable position for us an extended period of time as well. The window keeps getting extended and now both the GFS and Euro are hinting at a possible storm in the Wed/Thur time period as well. Doesn't mean we will score but it looks as if we will get a couple of shots at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: subsequent panels show more snow and it looks like a long duration event as the trough moves very slowly weird evolution.....weird because it gives us snow and has the potential to give us a lot! lol And it's less than a week out, which makes it more real in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The the GFS and Euro suite look to hold that trough in a favorable position for us an extended period of time as well. The window keeps getting extended and now both the GFS and Euro are hinting at a possible storm in the Wed/Thur time period as well. Doesn't mean we will score but it looks as if we will get a couple of shots at least. I'm still waiting on Bob's "almost guarantee" of a digital snowstorm on one of the ops! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Ehhh.. Most of the ensembles (EPS especially) have the trough going neutral over TX or thereabouts. 60s and cool season t-storms are more likely with a setup like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm still waiting on Bob's "almost guarantee" of a digital snowstorm on one of the ops! lol Gotta go with Bob on that. Think odds are good we will see a snowstorm or two on the ops in the coming days for the Sat-Thur time period. But fantasy snow doesn't translate to shove-able snow as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Gotta go with Bob on that. Think odds are good we will see a snowstorm or two on the ops in the coming days for the Sat-Thur time period. But fantasy snow doesn't translate to shove-able snow as we all know. we cant even get a good digital snowstorm....except for those 2 gloriious days leading up to christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: we cant even get a good digital snowstorm....except for those 2 gloriious days leading up to christmas 6z GFS inched east on the op but not cigar for next weekend. not sure 12z will do it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Ehhh.. Most of the ensembles (EPS especially) have the trough going neutral over TX or thereabouts. 60s and cool season t-storms are more likely with a setup like that. I agree, 20-35 day warmup coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: 6z GFS inched east on the op but not cigar for next weekend. not sure 12z will do it either. Obviously it's setting up happy hour, or potentially crappy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm still waiting on Bob's "almost guarantee" of a digital snowstorm on one of the ops! lol Navgem doesn't count but it did spit one out. GFS/CMC/Euro...it's coming....fasten seatbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This is why I think it's coming to digital fantasy land. GEFS has been looking like this through d10 for at least 3 runs in a row. It's only a matter of time before the op spits one of these good solutions out before taking it away in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Navgem doesn't count but it did spit one out. GFS/CMC/Euro...it's coming....fasten seatbelts. h5 looks slightly less neutral or a tick more positive at 84. compared to last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This is why I think it's coming to digital fantasy land. GEFS has been looking like this through d10 for at least 3 runs in a row. It's only a matter of time before the op spits one of these good solutions out before taking it away in 6 hours. wow...there is like 4-5 epic solutions in that mix lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: h5 looks slightly less neutral or a tick more positive at 84. compared to last 2 runs. yes...a tick less neutral...we need more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I agree, 20-35 day warmup coming Nah, that horrible look in the extended on the models is breaking down as it nears in time. Think at worst we see a temporary relax before we go back to the same old same old. But this time maybe we can get a legitimate -Ao and or -Nao thrown into the mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: h5 looks slightly less neutral or a tick more positive at 84. compared to last 2 runs. Yeah but the SE ridge looks stronger and further west. I think the initial storm will end up west of 6z unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: h5 looks slightly less neutral or a tick more positive at 84. compared to last 2 runs. We probably need to get the amped mess out of the way and the trough to clear before the door opens. Can't rule anything out beyond hr96 but the weekend deal will probably be rain. No block and progressive flow is going to work against us for sure. This aint no 13/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 welp--went the wrong way it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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