Ji Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 thats alot of red where we like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: thats alot of red where we like it At the same time, there's a lot of cold "potentially" poised to come down our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Guidance is converging on legit blocking Ji. Eps has a closed ridge near the pole before d10 and the d15 mean looks pretty much just like the gfs you posted. If the pna or epo flips in our favor I think it's game on not too far down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 52 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What's that word when the same things happen over and over again and you expect the result to be different? ... Don't say it, I know it already. It's not totally the same. I don't care what the surface says this setup is way better. The trough axis isn't digging on top of us. Look at these panels. If something decided to develop it has more room then last time. The ridge/trough configuration is better. We were behind the 8 call from go needing some crazy capture and tuck solution last time because of where the trough was digging. This setup isn't as dire. Doesn't mean we get snow. But I'm not convinced it would be a replay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Guidance is converging on legit blocking Ji. Eps has a closed ridge near the pole before d10 and the d15 mean looks pretty much just like the gfs you posted. If the pna or epo flips in our favor I think it's game on not too far down the road. That big ridge NW of Alaska was there in November and that eventually moved over Alaska turning the Epo negative. IF history repeats, Epo tanks within a few days thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not totally the same. I don't care what the surface says this setup is way better. The trough axis isn't digging on top of us. Look at these panels. If something decided to develop it has more room then last time. The ridge/trough configuration is better. We were behind the 8 call from go needing some crazy capture and tuck solution last time because of where the trough was digging. This setup isn't as dire. Doesn't mean we get snow. But I'm not convinced it would be a replay. I think the problem is the trough is positively tilted. We need neutral or better, or it just scoops everything up and out to our north and east. Heck, the trough earlier in the run at 156-168 hrs. should have caused something to fall from the sky imho, but it was dry as a bone too for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Holy -NAO/-AO signal! Showing up in the +250dm contour on 18z GFS ensembles, and this will strengthen in size and maximum over the next few days. Probaby a +400-+500 peak verification. Nailed this Dec 8-27 +Stratosphere = -NAO mid-January thing. Must have said it 15 times. This will trend stronger: (Nice 4-wave split PV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 43 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think the problem is the trough is positively tilted. We need neutral or better, or it just scoops everything up and out to our north and east. Heck, the trough earlier in the run at 156-168 hrs. should have caused something to fall from the sky imho, but it was dry as a bone too for us. I guaranty you that sometime in the next 5 days we will have a good digital snowstorm show up. Probably multiple iterations. Having something hold in the short range will be the real challenge. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 51 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think the problem is the trough is positively tilted. We need neutral or better, or it just scoops everything up and out to our north and east. Heck, the trough earlier in the run at 156-168 hrs. should have caused something to fall from the sky imho, but it was dry as a bone too for us. Your 100% right that exactly as shown the trough is too positive and nothing is amplified enough. But there is way more room to get the subtle improvements needed there to get a storm then last time when the entire trough location was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Well that run will not cut it...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well that run will not cut it...lol yep...looks awful. Nothing but rain and cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 of course when the models show a cutter in the long range...nothing changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GFS looks good. The warm up probably won't happen, the next cold shot is a big one that lasts. The Lakes cutter may even be a wintry threat. AO trending more negative every run... awesome pattern in the 7-10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: of course when the models show a cutter in the long range...nothing changes... There were a lot of flags for a favorable track next weekend. Zero blocking, strong WAR, and no reason except for really lucky timing for something to run the gauntlet. What happens after that is the next chance unless just about everything going against the weekend deal suddenly fixes itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There were a lot of flags for a favorable track next weekend. Zero blocking, strong WAR, and no reason except for really lucky timing for something to run the gauntlet. What happens after that is the next chance unless just about everything going against the weekend deal suddenly fixes itself. I think the first rainstorm tracking so far west killed the idea of the storm behind it giving us a favorable track. Lets see what D9 says...got something brewing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I think the first rainstorm tracking so far west killed the idea of the storm behind it giving us a favorable track. Lets see what D9 says...got something brewing lol Lakes low/northern stream is going to make us mad. Don't worry though. I'm pretty much 100% sure we'll get a good digital storm this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: trainwreck...next Ji storm cancelled? Well, It was a shot in the dark anyways. D9 could be the next trainwreck threat though. Could be interesting as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GFS at 222 looks nothing like 18z haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 the warm up may not come till February at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 if it was warm for 6 weeks and we were waiting for the cold pattern to come and we saw this model run tonight....we would be in pure panic 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lakes low/northern stream is going to make us mad. Don't worry though. I'm pretty much 100% sure we'll get a good digital storm this week. here you go...move it east about 17 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Another op run showing a very strong block forming over the pole. It can be abrupt sometimes and if it really is going to happen it's going to cause a lot of problems with ops and ens until it's resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 -NAO lock, it never trends away after this progression models timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Jan 22 and a winter storm over DC per GFS lol. In the heart of the Warm pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Jan 22 and a winter storm over DC per GFS lol. In the heart of the Warm pattern If the -ao is real you can toss d7+ of every op and ens for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Another op run showing a very strong block forming over the pole. It can be abrupt sometimes and if it really is going to happen it's going to cause a lot of problems with ops and ens until it's resolved. yep....this certainly would mute/delay the 10-15 day warm period if its true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Warm 10mb Dec 8-27 connects +500mb over Greenland on an average of +100 to +150dm analogs: ~15, 7days+Jan 20... 80% likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the -ao is real you can toss d7+ of every op and ens for a while. quickest -ao of all time. by 384 its a disaster up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Warm 10mb Dec 8-27 connects +500mb over Greenland on an average of +100 to +150dm analogs: ~15, 7days+Jan 20. I will admit, I have no idea what that means, but it sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, ATreglown said: I will admit, I have no idea what that means, but it sounds good! It's the strongest signal I've ever found, connecting patterns 25-40 days into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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