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January Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:15 PM, psuhoffman said:

It's mostly noise but no improvement at all. Gfs is really pushing the cold and gets the front way east of the euro so the low develops too far out to sea. Gfs is also faster with the trough by about 6 hours. Good old fashioned model war. 

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Hasn't that been the unfortunate trend this month? (atmospheric memory, anyone? Lol) Just so hard to trust anything when the GFS is once again doing something entirely different (and the last time that happened we got screwed).

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:31 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hasn't that been the unfortunate trend this month? (atmospheric memory, anyone? Lol) Just so hard to trust anything when the GFS is once again doing something entirely different (and the last time that happened we got screwed).

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If you're talking about the big storm then it's the opposite. Med range was east and verification was much further west. Just not far enough west for the 95 corridor. Honeslty, it's remarkable that storm punched as far west as it did  

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:22 PM, psuhoffman said:

HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. 

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Good to see Ian posting again!

It would make some sense based on the seasonal trend to think east with the midweek system. It just seems like everything wants to be east this year. How far east? Who knows. But the GFS has been pretty good about the timing of frontal passages so far this winter. Still a long ways out though.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:28 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Mount Holly seems to be favoring a similar outcome based on the 12z suite, but certainly leaves open the possibility of a more Euro-like evolution:
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My take on that is their favoring the clipper goes north then the coastal develops ots and is a non event anywhere. i read HMs comment more to mean he thinks it's a fail for the mid Atlantic but impacts north. But maybe I read it wrong. Long way to go with this. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:22 PM, psuhoffman said:

HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. 

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I was looking back at the 12z runs.  12Z NAVGEM has a scenario where we get light event like a glorified frontal passage and it hooks back into NE as a much better system.  Not saying HM would give much thought to the NAVGEM but it does do something like that

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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:36 PM, psuhoffman said:

My take on that is their favoring the clipper goes north then the coastal develops ots and is a non event anywhere. i read HMs comment more to mean he thinks it's a fail for the mid Atlantic but impacts north. But maybe I read it wrong. Long way to go with this. 

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lwx too imo 

There remains some timing
uncertainty with the trailing cold front and how much moisture
will be associated -- although overall it should be light.
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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted

 We're 5 days out. If we got a huge hit on the GFS right now, we'd all be scared to death because it was a huge hit five days out. I'd rather take my chances with a trending storm until game time then be getting hit five days out. Especially with how models have done with 5 day leads so far this winter. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:36 PM, psuhoffman said:

My take on that is their favoring the clipper goes north then the coastal develops ots and is a non event anywhere. i read HMs comment more to mean he thinks it's a fail for the mid Atlantic but impacts north. But maybe I read it wrong. Long way to go with this. 

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I think they are looking at the uncertainty within both ensembles wrt to the h5 low position, and favoring surface low development too far NE, whether or not that means the NE gets hit or missed is not relevant to the forecast down here...they think odds favor a miss for the MA at this juncture. And yeah I agree there is a long way to go.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:40 PM, MD Snow said:

 We're 5 days out. If we got a huge hit on the GFS right now, we'd all be scared to death because it was a huge hit five days out. I'd rather take my chances with a trending storm until game time then be getting hit five days out. Especially with how models have done with 5 day leads so far this winter. 

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the differences at h5 are quite noticeable at 120hrs 12z vs. 18z.  in fact 18z looks more like 6z. 

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:45 PM, BristowWx said:

the differences at h5 are quite noticeable at 120hrs 12z vs. 18z.  in fact 18z looks more like 6z. 

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Personally, I don't view a trend as a good model run building on it's last model run 5 days out. I agree it does matter to an extent. However, I'm more interested to see all the models as a whole. Most globals within the last 24 hrs have started to show the possibility of a coastal forming south of us. No reason to get super nervous about changes at h5 this far out as long as the general idea still exists. The spread is still to large at this point to nit-pick one model run taking a step back at h5. Just my thought...

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:53 PM, BristowWx said:

hr300-324 is chuckle worthy as it shows what seems to happen often as a system looks decent and then just gets squashed.  and its once again bitterly cold.  not saying its a lock but that theme seems to be the primary one.

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We’ll probably go straight back to the arctic freezer with no QPF anywhere in site. Lol. For now, we need to focus on next week only. That’s my plan anyway. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 10:53 PM, BristowWx said:

hr300-324 is chuckle worthy as it shows what seems to happen often as a system looks decent and then just gets squashed.  and its once again bitterly cold.  not saying its a lock but that theme seems to be the primary one.

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I brought up a general pattern look at range that I liked.  Your worrying about the exact track of a synoptic system 12 days away? 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 11:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

I brought up a general pattern look at range that I liked.  Your worrying about the exact track of a synoptic system 12 days away? 

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negative.  I am not worried about anything really. but just noticed as I loop through the entire 18Z run starting right now through 384 that the theme of strong HPs rolling out of NW Canada and the conveyor of cold really continues.... which is how it has been since Christmas with no real influence from the SS and hence its mostly dry.  and systems that do look like they might form from a good looking h5 NS vort seem to get squashed or form too far SE. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 11:20 PM, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs looks just like the op. Shocker

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NCEP needs to solve the group think problem. Having a bunch of mini gfs's saying "yea that" every 6 hours is useless. Gefs still has some variance at huge range but even then not enough. It jerks run to run with the op. It's only useful in the rare occasions the op has a truly bad hiccup run. I've started averaging the 4 gefs runs a day together in my mind to get more use from them and looking for trends but each run shows too little variance to be of much use. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/12/2018 at 11:28 PM, mitchnick said:

The boat....the boat you'll need if you want to get under meaningful precip. 

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Timing differences. 12z was slower so the best qpf period was later by about 12 hours.  So comparing those times makes 18z look better but if you go out further 12z was better. But minor noise differences anyways.  

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