mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nam is headed for suppression, too, at the end of its run. Pretty broad model agreement at this time. They are all wrong! Love how this started as an Ohio obliteration and now it's a Miami mauler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Frankly, suppression or not, it's probably mostly rain any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Congrats Havana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Isopycnic said: Congrats Havana. I don't think anybody has said that in at least 70 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: They are all wrong! Love how this started as an Ohio obliteration and now it's a Miami mauler! It's been colder than a witches boobies for two weeks now...burning my electricity bill up to massive numbers. Pricip starts heading this way, it gets suppressed. Then as it begins to warm up, the heavens open up and dump rain on us. If God has a sense of humor for the Upstate...his joke has to be mackerel_sky!! LOL just kidding buddy. I feel your anxiety for snow!! I missed the one in December for being at my kids house in Mt. Pleasant. And now Mt's Pleasant gets more snow than we have in 2 seasons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: It's been colder than a witches boobies for two weeks now...burning my electricity bill up to massive numbers. Pricip starts heading this way, it gets suppressed. Then as it begins to warm up, the heavens open up and dump rain on us. If God has a sense of humor for the Upstate...his joke has to be mackerel_sky!! LOL just kidding buddy. I feel your anxiety for snow!! I missed the one in December for being at my kids house in Mt. Pleasant. And now Mt's Pleasant gets more snow than we have in 2 seasons! It's pretty sad we couldn't score with all this cold around. And I really feel like our winter is over and the thaw is real, and we just won't get the cold back before March. Atleast the stretch of cold is pretty memorable! I've had lowes of 9,10, 12 13,16 in the last 10 days, it's been brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, setting up for a nice rainstorm. Here's the 54 hr map. The northern wave is not linking up with but instead, moving SE in tandem with the southern wave, acting to keep it south. At 90, the flow turns out of the west/northwest, as the southern vort has dug, cutoff, and is sunbathing on the lovely Panama City Beach. It doesn't help that the ridge out west is moving rapidly east. Not a great setup for a widespread winter storm. I was looking at the second one at 120 hours. Nice ms paint work though sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, LithiaWx said: I was looking at the second one at 120 hours. Nice ms paint work though sir. Thanks! Sorry, I was confusing. I combined both events into one post. I continued to elaborate on the suppressed event and also commented on the big bowling ball coming ashore...the one you were talking about. I made a post about it in the Long Term thread (from the Canadian's perspective). That model at least makes me interested. The GFS shows very little hope of anything wintry, and I'm not sure what the Euro is trying to do, but it looks way to warm also. None of the models have anything other than rain for that storm. That said, it's a long way out and much can change. Hopefully, we at least get some rain out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 Quick, somebody tell me the NAM looks great and came north, and wetter, and earlier!? Is that too much to ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, GunBlade said: I for one will model hug the NAM until I am blue in the face for the foreseeable future. I'm going to have a hard time believing any model at this range outside of the NAM after the past storms, especially the 1/3-1/4 storm, until one proves to be more accurate. Temperatures here with overriding events like this will always come to nowcasting. There have been several storms where the day of the HRRR, RAP, etc...move that freezing line north and south of 85 and until it sets up you just don't know where that will be. So I am not worried about temps until closer to the event. For now, will there even be a storm and precip? I will lean with the NAM's current track and ride it until something shows otherwise. Pack put the images below of three days out from the last storm and the NAM nearly nailed the low LOCATION. The GFS was bad and Euro horrendous. Exactly! It's nailed the last few winter storms. Make fun of it all you want to but it has been on the top of it's game lately and is excellent with thermal profiles. If it says you are going to be under a warm nose then you can pretty much kiss your snow goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Quick, somebody tell me the NAM looks great and came north, and wetter, and earlier!? Is that too much to ask for? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Does this system have any implications for Wake county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 42 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Does this system have any implications for Wake county? I can say for certainty, it'll be in the snow hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 GFS looks about the same. 7 sleet pellets in GA, then precip dies as it heads in Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 11 hours ago, Isopycnic said: 33f and drizzle on frozen ground. Fun times. That reminds me of something I haven't seen in many years. We are all aware of the driving warning that bridges and overpasses freeze before roadways. However, the opposite can sometimes occur. I have seen it quite a few times before I moved south. After a stretch of extremely cold temperatures if a cold rain occurs shortly after the temperature rises above freezing the frozen ground will cause the rain to freeze on contact while the bridges and overpasses having warmed to above freezing along with the air remain ice free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, jburns said: That reminds me of something I haven't seen in many years. We are all aware of the driving warning that bridges and overpasses freeze before roadways. However, the opposite can sometimes occur. I have seen it quite a few times before I moved south. After a stretch of extremely cold temperatures if a cold rain occurs shortly after the temperature rises above freezing the frozen ground will cause the rain to freeze on contact while the bridges and overpasses having warmed to above freezing along with the air remain ice free. I remember when I was in 9th grade (Durham) we had minor event where it was 33/34 degrees but the rain was freezing on the roads. Caused a lot of accidents. We had a long period of cold weather followed quickly by the light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, jburns said: That reminds me of something I haven't seen in many years. We are all aware of the driving warning that bridges and overpasses freeze before roadways. However, the opposite can sometimes occur. I have seen it quite a few times before I moved south. After a stretch of extremely cold temperatures if a cold rain occurs shortly after the temperature rises above freezing the frozen ground will cause the rain to freeze on contact while the bridges and overpasses having warmed to above freezing along with the air remain ice free. In NYC several winters ago this occurred and there were a crazy amount of accidents. It was probably 36-38 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 It's dead Jim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: I remember when I was in 9th grade (Durham) we had minor event where it was 33/34 degrees but the rain was freezing on the roads. Caused a lot of accidents. We had a long period of cold weather followed quickly by the light rain. It happened Jan 19 2005 in Raleigh. I'll post if I can find it. I left Apex at 1:30 pm and didnt get to Durant rd.middle school till 11:00 to get my daughter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: It happened Jan 19 2005 in Raleigh. I'll post if I can find it. I left Apex at 1:30 pm and didnt get to Durant rd.middle school till 11:00 to get my daughter. That particular incident was not rain... it was snow. http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/1090769/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That particular incident was not rain... it was snow. http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/1090769/ The situation was similar hence my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 So, this is turning into another dud. Guess FFC will have to really scale back on pops pretty soon. I have an 80 percent chance of accumulating rain/zr monday morning. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: I remember when I was in 9th grade (Durham) we had minor event where it was 33/34 degrees but the rain was freezing on the roads. Caused a lot of accidents. We had a long period of cold weather followed quickly by the light rain. I remember this. My timing is off but wasn’t after or before the Blizzard of 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Can we change the description of the thread to “no models are showing”...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 hours ago, Red1976Red said: Can we change the description of the thread to “no models are showing”...? 6z NAM said "Hold on just a sec" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 what once looked like a good thump of snow on the front end early Monday morning went to a mix then freezing rain and now it looks bone dry, if it isn't going to snow I think I rather have warmer weather anyway, maybe after a thaw we'll have something to track in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 hours ago, Red1976Red said: Can we change the description of the thread to “no models are showing”...? We could, but Red, you just got NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 GFS looks a little wetter, hmmm. Looks like there is a seperation of a littl blob that crosses TN, NGa, and western Carolinas, as the whims line falls apart, very similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS looks a little wetter, hmmm. Looks like there is a seperation of a littl blob that crosses TN, NGa, and western Carolinas, as the whims line falls apart, very similar to the NAM at 48, the GFS looks stout; thereafter, things fall apart - convective losses? extreme dry air/low DP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, drfranklin said: at 48, the GFS looks stout; thereafter, things fall apart - convective losses? extreme dry air/low DP? Probably both, the air is really dry. The models have not been as dry today as they were the last couple of days! Sometimes models show precip drying up a little too soon. There could be other things at play that can't be seen, like light drizzle from the SE/S southerly flow. Just a nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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