BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On the GFS, nothing of any consequence(wintery precip) falls east of a line from Wilkesboro to Lenoir to Morganton to Shelby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: Canadian much colder for Monday PM Decent QPF, too yep, thats definitely back to a lower level warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: On the GFS, nothing of any consequence(wintery precip) falls east of a line from Wilkesboro to Lenoir to Morganton to Shelby. The GFS failed miserably with the past 2 winter storms. In fact you could argue it was the worst of all guidance. Not saying its always out to lunch but it is REALLY struggling lately.. When NAM gets in range I think we will know if we have a decent chance of more than a nuisance event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: yep, thats definitely back to a lower level warning criteria event. .5-.75 would be much higher than lower level warning criteria. Just takes .25 of ice to get WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Am I missing something because I'm not seeing this on the pivotal weather maps? Find hr 90 on tt, 1 to 2 inch shading on clown but I'm sure it's not taking ice into consideration. Biggest different between it and the nam is nam closes wave off and gfs leaves open and is much faster it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Hr 90 gfs vort is open and snowing good n ga and sc,nc mtns, couple inches down on clown already. Not sure what you’re looking at, brief ice starts in N GA and part of SC/NC at 84 but definitely not snow and by 90 it’s a cold rain special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Not sure what you’re looking at, brief ice starts in N GA and part of SC/NC at 84 but definitely not snow and by 90 it’s a cold rain special. Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Find hr 90 on tt, 1 to 2 inch shading on clown but I'm sure it's not taking ice into consideration. Biggest different between it and the nam is nam closes wave off and gfs leaves open and is much faster it seems. Gotcha thanks. I'm guessing TT is picking up on something the pivotal maps are not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Not too worried about the gfs surface temps Monday as they would obviously be too warm if we fully get down to our wetbulbs sunday night/monday morning and there is steady precip monday.... The main question is will there be. Trends this evening are wetter but we will see if that holds. Hard to trust the models much at all these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: .5-.75 would be much higher than lower level warning criteria. Just takes .25 of ice to get WSW I dont think ice accumulates at a 1:1 ratio. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The biggest difference I can see between the GEM and GFS is the GFS has us 8 degrees warmer at hour 72. Its been busting warm all week, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Here you go That map factors any ice in as snow accumulations, so you’re seeing the actual ice qpf show up as “snow” when it really isn’t. Also when you look at soundings they are very warm aloft over a deep layer. Freezing rain would fall in a sounding like this over N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Most of that GEM QPF falls in the 20s from Greenville to Greensboro and back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Lookout said: Not too worried about the gfs surface temps Monday as they would obviously be too warm if we fully get down to our wetbulbs sunday night/monday morning and there is steady precip monday.... The main question is will there be. Trends this evening are wetter but we will see if that holds. Hard to trust the models much at all these days. I agree gfs surface temps are laughable when looking at the canadian and euro...but wetter trends this evening? CMC may show warning criteria ice but its like 50% less qpf for much of the Carolinas when I compared the maps. And 12z EURO was dryer compared to 3 previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I think the big three thermal players (euro, nam, cmc) are picking up on the dry cold air east of the mountains to support more ice. However, I believe 2 of the big 3 are also trending less moisture. Take a look for yourself: NEW OLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Lookout said: Not too worried about the gfs surface temps Monday as they would obviously be too warm if we fully get down to our wetbulbs sunday night/monday morning and there is steady precip monday.... The main question is will there be. Trends this evening are wetter but we will see if that holds. Hard to trust the models much at all these days. These are my thoughts as well regarding temps on Monday, at least in my part of the world. We never seem to have problems holding onto the cold in situations like this. We definitely have problems getting moisture over the mountains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: I agree gfs surface temps are laughable when looking at the canadian and euro...but wetter trends this evening? CMC may show warning criteria ice but its like 50% less qpf for much of the Carolinas when I compared the maps. And 12z EURO was dryer compared to 3 previous runs. Im referring to monday. A lot of the precip on that prior run falls so late..Monday night... it would be rain. The 0z run is wetter when it would matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: That map factors any ice in as snow accumulations, so you’re seeing the actual ice qpf show up as “snow” when it really isn’t. Also when you look at soundings they are very warm aloft over a deep layer. Freezing rain would fall in a sounding like this over N GA. I stated when I posted it was ice. Clowns don't differeniate. Trust me I know how to look at a sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Im referring to monday. A lot of the precip on that prior run falls so late..Monday night... it would be rain. The 0z run is wetter when it would matter. Moreso west of Charlotte into Georgia I would agree. Further north-east tho, the late precip may still be around freezing temps. Interested to see if the 0z euro continues to dry out further east with the late precip. If the trends continue, I don't think one would see an ice storm around Winston-Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 UKMet squashed the wave down into the gulf again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Passing along. CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Passing along. CMC The CMC has the best look for precip in terms of the wave pass. However, just in watching it over the years, it's the least trustworthy in my mind in terms of Pac wave handling/evolution...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 If 0z euro continues with less precip, I think the Gulf stoms will work in tandem with dry cold air in place here to rob and lessen the moisture transport significantly. Not a good trend 3 days leading up to the event if you are wanting more than a brief onset glazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 EURO again way dry. Lots of thunderstorms in the Gulf. Non event for most in west NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I think trends are for little onset ice north-west Georgia and southern Tennessee where better moisture and timing may exist. CMC likely to fold soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 6z meh, little ice NE GA at onset, very light. Trending badly for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 33f and drizzle on frozen ground. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Isopycnic said: 33f and drizzle on frozen ground. Fun times. I hope we do not get ice. That is like a slap in the face after missing out on the good snows. LOL. Meh is the word bird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Well hardly any chatter is bad news from past experience , hate to see this, was hoping for a good thump on the front end Sunday night / Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 GFS looks wetter and at 66, has ice on NE edges of precip shield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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