drfranklin Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 the moisture plume in LA/MS looks rather impressive on intellicast - 26.0/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 32/9 at Hartsfield-Jackson Intl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: 32/9 at Hartsfield-Jackson Intl I noticed all the interstates around the Atlanta area had been treated today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nancy Drew Mysteries Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 25/8 in Athens, GA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nancy Drew Mysteries Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, J.C. said: I noticed all the interstates around the Atlanta area had been treated today. With all the influx of visitors due tomorrow, not surprised. Good planning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, drfranklin said: the moisture plume in LA/MS looks rather impressive on intellicast - 26.0/2 12km nam is doing horribly on the northern edge of the precip shield currently....it busts that bad here, it will be something. 3km nam is also missing badly up toward Illinois. 12km looks better for tomorrow night...which is tricky because by this point the sub freezing cold pool...or whats left of it will be very shallow indeed...virtually just a few hundred feet deep....and maybe confined toward the athens area only. (assuming we have seen enough precip) cold evening so far. 25/10 here. Already a few degrees colder than model forecasted lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nam keeps me below freezing for the entire event... Question is: How much precip will our area get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12km nam is doing horribly on the northern edge of the precip shield currently....it busts that bad here, it will be something. 3km nam is also missing badly up toward Illinois. 12km looks better for tomorrow night...which is tricky because by this point the sub freezing cold pool...or whats left of it will be very shallow indeed...virtually just a few hundred feet deep....and maybe confined toward the athens area only. (assuming we have seen enough precip) cold evening so far. 25/10 here. Already a few degrees colder than model forecasted lows. Well I'm at 1220', so I guess I better hope the first part lays down the ground work, or else it'll be a mid 30s rain here, yuck. 28.7/9 with a stiff E wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The 3K NAM is pretty amazing in its resolution. This image from the 00Z NAM shows the South Mountains State Park area is plain rain, while all the surrounding area is freezing. So, it's gauging that those mountain areas are too tall and will be out of the subfreezing air in that small microclimate. Pretty cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: Well I'm at 1220', so I guess I better hope the first part lays down the ground work, or else it'll be a mid 30s rain here, yuck. 28.7/9 with a stiff E wind. it's just an approximation based on the nam soundings..if the nam is misreading the degree of evap cooling, which we all know happens every time, it could be a little too shallow.....although no doubt warming will be occurring from the top down with time. Will be some really interesting temps across the region by late afternoon/evening....i love airmasses like this where there could be big differences over the course of just a few miles..or less... based on elevation/topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Wow! What a tricky forecast....as 6 million metro Atlantans (not including thousands of out of town visitors for national college football championship) hit the roads I pray accidents stay at a minimal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Nam keeps me below freezing for the entire event... Question is: How much precip will our area get? Yeah I've got a feeling the cold isn't going to be disbursed as quickly as models may think with the CAD . We are experiencing some probably nobody here has experienced. 8 + days of below freezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Why is the HRRR so much warmee tomorrow than the NAM wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The 3K NAM is pretty amazing in its resolution. This image from the 00Z NAM shows the South Mountains State Park area is plain rain, while all the surrounding area is freezing. So, it's gauging that those mountain areas are too tall and will be out of the subfreezing air in that small microclimate. Pretty cool! If that's close to being right on this radar forecast, it's going to be really really bad, and the school closings would have saved the day! A lot of griping on school FB pages about " how could they close school" mentality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Why is the HRRR so much warmee tomorrow than the NAM wow! Cause it sucks! Every knowledgeable person posted that it's always wrong, should never be used, during the snow wishcasting event last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cause it sucks! Every knowledgeable person posted that it's always wrong, should never be used, during the snow wishcasting event last week. Yep, I have to agree with you there.... it did bust pretty bad with the last event at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, Lookout said: it's just an approximation based on the nam soundings..if the nam is misreading the degree of evap cooling, which we all know happens every time, it could be a little too shallow.....although no doubt warming will be occurring from the top down with time. Will be some really interesting temps across the region by late afternoon/evening....i love airmasses like this where there could be big differences over the course of just a few miles..or less... based on elevation/topography. 40s in ATL, mid 30s in GVL, and 32 with zr in Athens. Also, it will be interesting to see how warm some of the higher peaks in GA get that have stations like in eastern Pickens at 3000' and Suches at 3200'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 It's a balmy 19/5 right now. I have a feeling this will be one of those sneaky events that ends up overperforming.. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 One thing I noticed with the HRRR , it has the Dew points way to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nashville TN AFD this hour says a lot of that on radar is not hitting the ground. I think some districts will be able to get by with early dismissal due to morning commute being good for most in NC east of the high country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 819 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Looking over the latest observation for the evening update and there are a few things to note in regards to the potential for wintry weather tonight. Let`s start with the rain being seen on the radar. Light precipitation has been showing on the radar over western and middle Tennessee over the last couple of hours, however, the only sites reporting rain at this hour are Dyersburg way back by the TN River and Clarksville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Checking in at 26° and 9.3° DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Always stays a tad warmer here on the hill, 28.3/9. Continued stiff E wind. I have to say that (unless it totally dries up) radar trends to our W/SW are very encouraging. I don't hope or wish for anyone to have power taken out, but we're all winter enthusiasts in this thread so I hope we can all get in on some of the winter precip headed our way. We're kind of in "rare" territory as it's almost never this cold and dry with precip moving our way, so here's to a good thumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: 40s in ATL, mid 30s in GVL, and 32 with zr in Athens. Also, it will be interesting to see how warm some of the higher peaks in GA get that have stations like in eastern Pickens at 3000' and Suches at 3200'. haha...i think atlanta won't quite get that warm...although i do think the last to warm above freezing will be east of atlanta toward athens/here and into sc. 6 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 819 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Looking over the latest observation for the evening update and there are a few things to note in regards to the potential for wintry weather tonight. Let`s start with the rain being seen on the radar. Light precipitation has been showing on the radar over western and middle Tennessee over the last couple of hours, however, the only sites reporting rain at this hour are Dyersburg way back by the TN River and Clarksville. oops lol although to be fair...they are right..there is a lot of virga on the leading edge.,,but that's not really news. Close KBNA 36.12 / -86.69 @ 597 ft Name: Nashville International Airport Updated: 07 Jan 8:55 pm Mesonet: NWS/FAA Temp:39° F4° C Dew Point:19° F-7° C Relh:44 % Wind:S@14 mph 12 kts Wind Chill:31° F Altimeter:30.23 in Weather:Lt Rain Visibility:10.00 mi Clouds:OVC060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Don't usually see this in a NWS AFD. We`ve still been pouring puddles of water on our sidewalk and black parking lot pavement, and they are freezing over 15-30 minute periods. Road temps continue to steadily fall, along with ambient air temps. Forecast still looks on track. - Louisville KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: haha...i think atlanta won't quite get that warm...although i do think the last to warm above freezing will be east of atlanta toward heh yeah that atlanta prediction was halfway in jest, but you are correct; when wedges are becoming shallower and eroding from the top down. Usually it is the lower elevations from ATL to AHN into the upstate that are the last to warm above freezing. We shall see. Like you said, if we do get any precip that is "heavier" then we do run the risk of warming above freezing, especially later in the day. Tomorrow will be an interesting day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Monitoring the upstream obs in Kentucky. Leading edge is sleet with temps around 38. Meanwhile its in the teens to about 20 in Boone. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 46 minutes ago, Lookout said: it's just an approximation based on the nam soundings..if the nam is misreading the degree of evap cooling, which we all know happens every time, it could be a little too shallow.....although no doubt warming will be occurring from the top down with time. Will be some really interesting temps across the region by late afternoon/evening....i love airmasses like this where there could be big differences over the course of just a few miles..or less... based on elevation/topography. This air mass is so dry and I think it is going to take some time to saturate. I am just interested to see how it all turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Here's an observation for ya, Anniston, AL's dp has fallen from 17 earlier today to 11 now with a brisk east wind. I really think if we get precip in here tomorrow morning/afternoon, the wedge is gonna throw us a sneak icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 A few new counties have been added to wwa in SC, atleast Anderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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