mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 All models are showing atleast some ice at onset of the event, but could be much worse if more precip arrives early! Temps are very cold and air very dry! Needs to be watched! Only 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just saw Ryan Maue on Facebook ATL could have ZR on Monday. So if they get it, we should definitely see something! And GSP says it should start as sleet and snow, then go to ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 FFC is putting ZR in the grids for the North Metro already, which is surprising. For ATL, this whole event hinges on how fast the wedge erodes, but I suspect upstate SC and W NC will have less issues with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Mack, this may be our storm - no ice! just some sleet and snow (I did purchase a Honda EU2000i generator prior to Xmas at HD - only $899!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, drfranklin said: Mack, this may be our storm - no ice! just some sleet and snow (I did purchase a Honda EU2000i generator prior to Xmas at HD - only $899!) It is about time we cashed in. I'm going all in. I do fear this will be a sleet/ frozen rain event with not much snow as the CAD will be around much longer than the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Oh wow! Isn't the National College football championship in Atl this Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Justincobbco said: Oh wow! Isn't the National College football championship in Atl this Monday . I didn't even think of that. Lots of people driving between athens and Atlanta Monday. I would say this one looks good at this point, but I said that about the last one that completely disappeared. If we can't get something out of all this cold air and snow north and east of us then we are truly in a sad state of affairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Justincobbco said: Oh wow! Isn't the National College football championship in Atl this Monday . The real Ice Bowl.....Roll Tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 GEFS gives a lot of support for something frozen! Euro looking slower to start but a lot colder and negative dewpoints in the CAD regions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GEFS gives a lot of support for something frozen! Euro looking slower to start but a lot colder and negative dewpoints in the CAD regions! Looking way out in fantasy land, looks volatile every time I glance at something, trying to see how pattern will shake out as we enter 2cnd half of winter. seems like energy is flying around everywhere. Should return to normal mid next week cause air will be of pacific origin instead of Artic, but after that its up in the air. Everyones, mine included thought La nina would roll in and winter would end mid JAN. But it doesnt have that feel / look to it. We shall see, Im guessing we get a few more cold interuptions and everyone will get a couple more shots at frozen. But it will take good timing/luck as always. This upcoming event will have no trouble locking in the duration and staying below freezing in the heart of Cad areas if the moisture arrives at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Zip on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: Zip on the euro hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Esasky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3pm Discussion from FFC: Quote .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... A few changes were needed to the weather grids for Sunday night into early Morning, mainly for p-type. In addition, adjusted the MaxT grids for Monday, especially in areas contained within the wedge. A wintry mix is still possible Sunday night into early Monday morning. A strong wedge will be in place across much of northern GA during this time period. Surface temperatures will be at or just below freezing within the wedge, and with warmer temperatures aloft, the potential for freezing rain will increase. It is still too early to definitively delineate exactly where any wintry mix will occur and any accumulations. Models tend to want to wipe the wedge out a lot sooner than actually occurs. This is forecasted to be a pretty strong wedge...so am concerned about the high temperatures on Monday. Have adjusted values downward a few degrees within the wedged area, and values could go even lower if the surface low to the south and/or precipitation ends up re-enforcing the cold air in place. Interests across northern GA, including the Atlanta metro should continue to monitor later forecasts. The forecast will likely change, it is still 4-5 days out. Any small shift in a low pressure track...or even timing...could vastly affect the forecast. NListemaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 18z NAM still looks solidly cold/dry for the potential event. At hour 84 the surface low is farther south than the GFS and the dew points are a lot lower, especially down into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z NAM still looks solidly cold/dry for the potential event. At hour 84 the surface low is farther south than the GFS and the dew points are a lot lower, especially down into GA. Yep. It’s a shame that low is taking so long to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Sounds about right, thread started and EURO folds to suppression. It was consistent past 3 runs with a lot of qpf to work with. Maybe the next one?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Two words "Lakes Low" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 There’s a huge difference at 84 between the GEM and NAM on low location. GEM is almost over Joplin while the NAM is 75 miles NW of Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: There’s a huge difference at 84 between the GEM and NAM on low location. GEM is almost over Joplin while the NAM is 75 miles NW of Houston. Boom goes the GFS ! Heavier precip, nice wedge sigi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Boom goes the GFS ! Heavier precip, nice wedge sigi! We're almost there, I'd feel better if we were about 6-8 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Boom goes the GFS ! Heavier precip, nice wedge sigi! No it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: No it's not. At my house it does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: At my house it does! What GFS are you looking at. All I see is a FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, SN_Lover said: What GFS are you looking at. All I see is a FROPA. Yeah, cause there's never been an ice storm with a fropa. There's ice over my house at onset. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Shortwaves havnt been sampled yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Shortwaves havnt been sampled yet! LOL okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Early Monday on the NAM 12km. GFS has continued to trend colder and colder with temps on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, J.C. said: Early Monday on the NAM 12km. GFS has continued to trend colder and colder with temps on Monday. It does not matter if wetbulbs are 20 degrees, if the low tracks north. we can kiss any winter p-type bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, J.C. said: Early Monday on the NAM 12km. GFS has continued to trend colder and colder with temps on Monday. I thought precip was supposed to start in N GA by early Monday morning? According to that it's still way back in Western AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: It does not matter if wetbulbs are 20 degrees, if the low tracks north. we can kiss any winter p-type bye bye. In general, i think you have that backwards. If the wet bulb is 20 and Precip falls, it doesn’t matter where the low goes. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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