Jim Martin Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 00z NAM just rolling in but early returns still suggest a fairly robust warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Riding in on a sea horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Would be interested to get RC's or somebody elses take on how the NAM initialized with temps aloft. I took a quick look and nothing jumped out at me but it was very quick so I may have missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 39 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would be interested to get RC's or somebody elses take on how the NAM initialized with temps aloft. I took a quick look and nothing jumped out at me but it was very quick so I may have missed something. I think Izzi did some discussion of it in a LOT update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 43 minutes ago, Baum said: I think Izzi did some discussion of it in a LOT update. The last update I see is from over 2 hours ago, so before the 00z NAM came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Looks like the RAP is more similar to the NAM with the warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The last update I see is from over 2 hours ago, so before the 00z NAM came in. 0z better or worse wrt warm nose extent? RGEM looks nice, hoping it's got my back on this one. Want to touch 7" depth one more time before mega-melt-off ensues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 0z better or worse wrt warm nose extent? RGEM looks nice, hoping it's got my back on this one. Want to touch 7" depth one more time before mega-melt-off ensues I didn't really see a big difference on the 00z run compared to previous. It still tries to mix pretty far north. So we have the NAM, and the RAP and HRRR trying to go that way vs. the other models. Not a lot of clarity unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Maybe the warmer models won't be entirely correct with the extent of the warm layer, but I think you gotta take it seriously at this point. We do have fairly robust southwesterly flow off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Maybe the warmer models won't be entirely correct with the extent of the warm layer, but I think you gotta take it seriously at this point. We do have fairly robust southwesterly flow off the deck. Just once in 10 yrs I'd like to see that under-achieve, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The last update I see is from over 2 hours ago, so before the 00z NAM came in. Yep. My bad. Though check out the MKE AFD they discuss the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Maybe the warmer models won't be entirely correct with the extent of the warm layer, but I think you gotta take it seriously at this point. We do have fairly robust southwesterly flow off the deck. Been burned so many times by underestimating WAA at H8ish it's hard not to discount the warmer solutions. After 8 days in a row of subzero temps it really seems strange to think that way lol. That being said I really don't know what to expect for tomorrow, which is kind of interesting. I'm sort of expecting a mix-bag, but really wouldn't be surprised if one of the types ends up dominating. At this point I'm just glad the models bumped a bit back north from what they showed a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Been burned so many times by underestimating WAA at H8ish it's hard not to discount the warmer solutions. After 8 days in a row of subzero temps it really seems strange to think that way lol. That being said I really don't know what to expect for tomorrow, which is kind of interesting. I'm sort of expecting a mix-bag, but really wouldn't be surprised if one of the types ends up dominating. At this point I'm just glad the models bumped a bit back north from what they showed a few days ago. I'm thinking a mix here initially, if not straight up freezing rain for a little while (by initially, I mean later in the afternoon when the main precip arrives, not the potential early morning spit of snow) but then a changeover to snow with perhaps a couple inches or so if there's not a delay in changeover. Curious about how fast temps respond. I never discount a faster 2m rise than progged in a southerly flow setup even with the arctic air as of late. But again, there should be a lagging response with the pavement temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Snowing lightly right now with the lead wave. Dusting up the pavement a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Maybe the warmer models won't be entirely correct with the extent of the warm layer, but I think you gotta take it seriously at this point. We do have fairly robust southwesterly flow off the deck. All good points about the WAA magnitude. The big question comes down to what the dew point trace is doing and also if it precipitates and how much prior to the evaporative cooling down to near 0 C and below, the key timing of which is during the afternoon. The northern extent of the ZR threat is a question mark outside of ending as freezing drizzle which is possible everywhere. Maybe the RGEM is a good compromise between the NAM/HRRR and the cooler guidance, bringing in a decent swath of ZR along and south of the IL and Kankakee river valleys. This continues to be a very challenging forecast and I can say it was a difficult headline process for my office and surrounding offices. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Light freezing rain just started here. No sleet. Always fun to see liquid coming down after it being around 50 degrees below freezing the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 13 hours ago, RogueWaves said: 0z better or worse wrt warm nose extent? RGEM looks nice, hoping it's got my back on this one. Want to touch 7" depth one more time before mega-melt-off ensues Our depth hit 10" in mid-December, then melted off to nothing but piles for about 4 days, then has since peaked back at 7" and is holding steady around 5.5-6" still. Model qpf has definitely increased a bit, looks like a quarter inch qpf which should be mostly or all snow. So no doubt it goes up tonight before melting. Its been a cold white winter so far so I can't complain but to get reward comes risk. And we are now entering that type of period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The very cold surface conditions, temp still in the mid 20s, and pure freezing rain that isn't falling too heavily is creating the perfect accretion situation. Already a solid glaze out there with <0.1" of precip. Heard sirens in the distance a few times. I'm hoping the residual salt leftover on the roadways is helping some. EDIT: 11:45am, getting sleet mixing in with this heavier burst of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Pretty much all models are showing a nice bulls eye of 3 to 6 inches for my area in West Central Lower Michigan. Sure hope it happens! ...And GRR just issued a WWA for 2 to 4 inches with a light ice accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Haven't seen a map like this in a while. Above freezing from central Iowa to SPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Several accidents near Ottawa on 80. People in ditches, sliding around, spinning out, etc. Had moderate rain for a good 10 minutes. Almost slid into a ditch myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Several accidents near Ottawa on 80. People in ditches, sliding around, spinning out, etc. Had moderate rain for a good 10 minutes. Almost slid into a ditch myself. People are terrible drivers... even in snow but with this stuff most of the public probably won't think much beyond "oh, it's raining." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nothing too interesting out of this one around here, but should end up with a combo of a DAB of snow/sleet and <0.10" ice accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Roads are absolutely terrible right now. Just heard there have been 2 accidents on I-88 between Erie and Hillsdale, with numerous additional vehicles in the ditch. Still getting very light freezing rain, with the occasional burst of mixed sleet with the heavier showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Light freezing rain/sleet mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Roads are absolutely terrible right now. Just heard there have been 2 accidents on I-88 between Erie and Hillsdale, with numerous additional vehicles in the ditch. Still getting very light freezing rain, with the occasional burst of mixed sleet with the heavier showers. I-55 is terrible also, numerous accidents just between here and I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 MLI up to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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