January 6-8 Snow/Ice/Rain

[Hoosier]

Some differences in the details, but we have pretty good model agreement now on having more of a southern wave.  This looks to be mainly a Sunday/Monday thing, but precip may get going on Saturday in northern/western areas.

Overall, the synoptic setup does not look particularly favorable for a lot of icing (lack of surface high to the north), but there should be some.  Also, as has been mentioned in other threads, the extreme cold with little time for modification leading into this system is likely to result in slippery conditions even in areas that rise above freezing.  

On the snow side, may manage a band of several inches somewhere inside of a broader swath of light amounts but it's a bit early to get into that.

[snowlover2]

12z runs brought the snow line farther south. Looking not too bad for lots of us.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

open waves like this are hard for models to get a good grip on until close in.

This season, everything's been hard for the models to get a grip on, lol. Any heavy snows that have occured (4-6+ clippers) have trended favorable inside of 3 days, thus nothing but LES outbreaks have shown up on CPC's hazard maps. Little else has (Hvy snow swaths), save for current hit over NNE, and Maine..

This kind of map I've been looking for all season..

 

[RogueWaves]

To the point of our cold dome not having time to "get moved out", the 12z GEM made pretty good sense without getting into too much of the details behind the surf map

 

[CoalCityWxMan]

8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

To the point of our cold dome not having time to "get moved out", the 12z GEM made pretty good sense without getting into too much of the details behind the surf map

 

Even if temps did rise enough above freezing to support rain, the ground would still be well below freezing for quite awhile as it wouldn't have very much time to thaw. If some areas in central IL/IN eastward do see liquid precip, icing could be an issue. Interested to see how the models handle this in coming days. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Even if temps did rise enough above freezing to support rain, the ground would still be well below freezing for quite awhile as it wouldn't have very much time to thaw. If some areas in central IL/IN eastward do see liquid precip, icing could be an issue. Interested to see how the models handle this in coming days. 

This is where human input/common sense pays off in forecasting.  The models are only going to output ice where temps are warm enough aloft and at/below 32 at 2m.  They don't know about the extreme cold spell so it will be up to area forecasters to account for it.

[Geoboy645]

Whats it looking like for Wisconsin?

[Jackstraw]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is where human input/common sense pays off in forecasting.  The models are only going to output ice where temps are warm enough aloft and at/below 32 at 2m.  They don't know about the extreme cold spell so it will be up to area forecasters to account for it.

Do the models also take snow cover into account?

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Do the models also take snow cover into account?

As far as I know, yes, unless something changed.

[buckeye]

Not liking the look of this one.  I can't think of any good snow events we've scored on with a low tracking to our north while another tracks to ur south.   This has "dampen out"  written all over it.   As far as icing goes.   That works much better when an arctic high is being attacked and putting up a fight vs. exiting stage right while a system moves in from the west.   Relying  on cold surfaces to produce anything other than some annoying nuisance glaze is a long shot.

Maybe this will morph into something more...but I won't hold my breath.

[Snowstorms]

So close. Timing is everything. Ugh! 

The H5 pattern, especially the s/w, is much more defined on tonights 0z run vs previous runs! 

[Snowstorms]

The GGEM H5 pattern is quite different than the 0z GFS. We can see a partial phase, but a late phase, on the 0z GGEM. Most of us don't get anything as a result. 

[mimillman]

33 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

So close. Timing is everything. Ugh! 

The H5 pattern, especially the s/w, is much more defined on tonights 0z run vs previous runs! 

That looks miles and miles away from happening. It's not even close. The ridge in the west is not sharp enough for the northern stream to dive down enough.

The one after this looks far more interesting but will also likely disappoint.

[Stebo]

41 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

So close. Timing is everything. Ugh! 

The H5 pattern, especially the s/w, is much more defined on tonights 0z run vs previous runs! 

Northern stream is too fast and knowing how it acts, it will only continue to speed up from here on out. Take what you can get with this one because a biggie isn't coming.

[Snowstorms]

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

Northern stream is too fast and knowing how it acts, it will only continue to speed up from here on out. Take what you can get with this one because a biggie isn't coming.

Great point, I agree. This one's going to be a dud for most of us, lol. And the next may have more WAA to work with and therefore could be a nasty mix for some of us. Getting a phased solution, especially in 2nd year Nina's can be difficult, as they're primarily northern stream dominant anyways. 

Outside of a few lucky clippers and LES enhancement in December, this winter's terrible. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Great point, I agree. This one's going to be a dud for most of us, lol. And the next may have more WAA to work with and therefore could be a nasty mix for some of us. Getting a phased solution, especially in 2nd year Nina's can be difficult, as they're primarily northern stream dominant anyways. 

Outside of a few lucky clippers and LES enhancement in December, this winter's terrible. 

Isn't Toronto currently running above average snow wise?

[Hoosier]

GGEM still trying for something modestly more interesting.  But yeah, the ceiling is not very high here lol

[Chinook]

Euro P-type also shows freezing rain around Lexington KY with this one. It also has 4" of snow for Columbus by Monday afternoon.

[pondo1000]

12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Euro P-type also shows freezing rain around Lexington KY with this one. It also has 4" of snow for Columbus by Monday afternoon.

Probably can lock that in since I am traveling to Florida on Sunday! Expect 6 inches (that's what she said).

[Snowstorms]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Isn't Toronto currently running above average snow wise?

Yeah by like ~3.5". 1/3rd of our seasonal total is because of LES. That gap will probably close by next week if we don't get something. The 5-6" of snow on the ground is like plaster now, lol. 

[buckeye]

Well I guess this might be the biggest trackable non-clipper 'threat' for us in Central Ohio these past two seasons.  Speaks volumes about our winters.   In spite of an anemic and sloppy set up the euro has the heaviest band of snow ( 3-6")  along the i-70 corridor in OH.   The  amounts increase along the I-70 corridor, (3" in western OH to 6" in eastern OH).   CMH is around 4-5".    The canadian has a very similar snow output both in amount and location.   The gfs is the stick in the mud but still targets central OH with the most snow, (although it's only a couple of inches).

These amounts are about the best you could expect from a set up like this and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the precip shield weaken in future runs with the southern energy diving further south.  

 

[pondo1000]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Well I guess this might be the biggest trackable non-clipper 'threat' for us in Central Ohio these past two seasons.  Speaks volumes about our winters.   In spite of an anemic and sloppy set up the euro has the heaviest band of snow ( 3-6")  along the i-70 corridor in OH.   The  amounts increase along the I-70 corridor, (3" in western OH to 6" in eastern OH).   CMH is around 4-5".    The canadian has a very similar snow output both in amount and location.   The gfs is the stick in the mud but still targets central OH with the most snow, (although it's only a couple of inches).

These amounts are about the best you could expect from a set up like this and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the precip shield weaken in future runs with the southern energy diving further south.  

 

I won't be here so there is no doubt it will happen. We are at about 4 days out so the fact that we have the Euro on our side is a good sign. IF it stays the course through tomorrow we may be in business. Not me though, all of you. LOL

[RCNYILWX]

GGEM still trying for something modestly more interesting.  But yeah, the ceiling is not very high here lol

Hopefully the GEM is onto something this far north but not holding my breath lol. One thing to hang onto for still getting a minor (moderate by 2017-18 standards) event up here is that the models have been terrible even at this range all winter. With that being said, there's good validity to the points made about why this could get squashed south. I'll give it through tomorrow night's 00z runs to show hints of a recovery.

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[buckeye]

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

I won't be here so there is no doubt it will happen. We are at about 4 days out so the fact that we have the Euro on our side is a good sign. IF it stays the course through tomorrow we may be in business. Not me though, all of you. LOL

Enjoy Florida....  I'm jealous and already missing being in the tropics.  The only thing you might miss is a slop fest on the front of a thaw.

[pondo1000]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Enjoy Florida....  I'm jealous and already missing being in the tropics.  The only thing you might miss is a slop fest on the front of a thaw.

Thanks! Yeah, it probably won't be a big deal. Euro for the following weekend looks interesting. Too bad it is like 8 days away. We've been there before! 

[buckeye]

49 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Hopefully the GEM is onto something this far north but not holding my breath lol. One thing to hang onto for still getting a minor (moderate by 2017-18 standards) event up here is that the models have been terrible even at this range all winter. With that being said, there's good validity to the points made about why this could get squashed south.*  I'll give it through tomorrow night's 00z runs to show hints of a recovery.

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* see the ukmet.   Low goes to cuba

[cyclone77]

Looks like this one will be a whiff for Iowa and northwest IL if the Euro and GFS are to be believed.  

[hlcater]

24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like this one will be a whiff for Iowa and northwest IL if the Euro and GFS are to be believed.  

That thing is gross. Never been a fan of carp, never will.

[Baum]

Iowa and NW IL will get there 1-2 inches of snow followed by freezing drizzle and fog. 

[cyclone77]

26 minutes ago, Baum said:

Iowa and NW IL will get there 1-2 inches of snow followed by freezing drizzle and fog. 

I'd take that lol.