87storms Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey now! This is what I want to hear. One of the early clues for an overperformer in our neck is models busting low with the bulge into central va. Sometimes we get fooled though when the coastal goes nuts and tightens the gradient towards the coast but if my yard is going to get more than 1", I want a while bunch of yards in central va getting many inches. Lol. agreed, and i feel like some of the models showed a bit of east wobble as it got near our latitude. i almost feel like i'd rather see the low move more northward than westward. i mean west is also good, but the further north it gets the better chance we may have of avoiding the western extent from collapsing east when the coastal takes over or "gets really going" (which i've seen before and is something i think central NC gets nervous about). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The gray is subsidence? Or does the gray represent much less lift? Seems the orange area carries higher values. Just a weenie trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Not sure if anyone uses this product, but it is an interesting way to see onset time. This is the visibility from the HRRR at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: The gray is subsidence? Just a weenie trying to learn. The blue/cool colors. Those panels actually show that DC/Baltimore stay under upward motion most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Not sure if anyone uses this product, but it is an interesting way to see onset time. This is the visibility from the HRRR at midnight. That's really cool, even if it is the HRRRR. Looks like it would come in hot and heavy if that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 AA County already announced two hour delays for Thursday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Newbie question. Just watched Bernie’s video and he said that any snow we get in central MD will come from the trough and not the low. Is this the common belief here? I work in finance not meteorology so be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The blue/cool colors. Those panels actually show that DC/Baltimore stay under upward motion most of the time. Thx for the clarification - I have a lot to learn, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Radar starting show the western extent of flakes? Virga now out toward HGR and probably virga the rest of the storm there but a good sign for those east imo. Even some light returns showing up near Cumberland. Not expecting anything imby but if I were to get flakes...this is how I would hope the radar would look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The blue/cool colors. Those panels actually show that DC/Baltimore stay under upward motion most of the time. Yea, I kinda liked that a lot. One way to bust high is to get under an outer band twice. Once as it moves west and another shot as it pulls east. There can be a bit of a stall in between. If banded structure sets up like that, whoever gets the stall could win the western edge accum prize. That usually happens in jackpotville/upper MoCo etc. Maybe it happens in Columbia/rockville with the low being further east. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I kinda liked that a lot. One way to bust high is to get under an outer band twice. Once as it moves west and another shot as it pulls east. There can be a bit of a stall in between. If banded structure sets up like that, whoever gets the stall could win the western edge accum prize. That usually happens in jackpotville/upper MoCo etc. Maybe it happens in Columbia/rockville with the low being further east. Lol This is how the HoCo/MoCo/Chill Deathband gets set up and stalls for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 23z HRRR is pushing the western edge of precip almost to the border of Washington/Fredrick counties in MD and the panhandle of WV. I like seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That's really cool, even if it is the HRRRR. Looks like it would come in hot and heavy if that's right. Well, I think 1.5 mi vis is still pretty light snow. The colors may exaggerate it some. The lowest we get is about 0.5 mi vis. Below 1/4 mi in the heavy stuff in eastern NC and very SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The Kuchera ratio is pushing 20:1 on the 23z HRRR. Best to stay away from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said: Newbie question. Just watched Bernie’s video and he said that any snow we get in central MD will come from the trough and not the low. Is this the common belief here? I work in finance not meteorology so be nice. I'd have to see the video to understand the context. In some ways it's all connected but if you took away the low there would be flurries at best with the frontal passage associated with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 23z HRRR is pushing the western edge of precip almost to the border of Washington/Fredrick counties in MD and the panhandle of WV. I like seeing that. Gets...decent precip to FDK..intesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I kinda liked that a lot. One way to bust high is to get under an outer band twice. Once as it moves west and another shot as it pulls east. There can be a bit of a stall in between. If banded structure sets up like that, whoever gets the stall could win the western edge accum prize. That usually happens in jackpotville/upper MoCo etc. Maybe it happens in Columbia/rockville with the low being further east. Lol I'm all about the deathband coming back to Columbia-Rockville where it belongs. Lots of the progs show extreme NE MD and Philly area getting caught between our hopefully strong midlevel frontogenesis band and the much stronger band offshore and on the NJ shore. They probably recover that eventually, but those bands in our area are probably our best show at someone getting some dendrite fluff above the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Jebman said: This is how the HoCo/MoCo/Chill Deathband gets set up and stalls for hours. No doubt I bet AA county gets stuck between the bands, then as the storm pulls away the outer band will fall apart as it heads east, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It's starting to look like classic I-95/slightly west of I-95 banding. Models are pretty far west with precip shield. I'd guess 3-6" for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 23z HRRR is pushing the western edge of precip almost to the border of Washington/Fredrick counties in MD and the panhandle of WV. I like seeing that. Ninj'd...thought I was going to get that one. Snow accumulated pushed west from 22z just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Well, I think 1.5 mi vis is still pretty light snow. The colors may exaggerate it some. The lowest we get is about 0.5 mi vis. Below 1/4 mi in the heavy stuff in eastern NC and very SE VA. Oh ok, looked like 0.3-0.5mi coming in immediately in that panel you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This is probably a good time to remind everyone that the "ring" of radar returns developing around DC/Baltimore does not mean it is snowing in PA or necessarily even in VA and totally missing the metro area. The radar is hitting the snow falling from the clouds at much higher elevations far from the radar and it's all evaporating before it reaches the surface. As that ring "fills", the snow will start reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I liked seeing the 23z hrrr bulging precip further west in central VA too. That's our tell I think. If that keeps ticking west over the next 6 hours then even Ji might get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 ground is covered already snow and sleet mix right now but no doubt will go to all snow shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Beachin said: ground is covered already snow and sleet mix right now but no doubt will go to all snow shortly Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Fwiw, the snow backed up almost to Greensboro in NC, which is west of Raleigh. Maybe that was an ok development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: This is probably a good time to remind everyone that the "ring" of radar returns developing around DC/Baltimore does not mean it is snowing in PA or necessarily even in VA and totally missing the metro area. The radar is hitting the snow falling from the clouds at much higher elevations far from the radar and it's all evaporating before it reaches the surface. As that ring "fills", the snow will start reaching the ground. A good trick I use when snow approaches from the south is when the beam shadow aimed SW fills in close to LWX. Usually means it's reaching the ground and my yard is an hour away. That and when the snowhole fills in of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Good time to remind everyone to use mPING to report ground conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Where are you? Quinby VA on the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Fwiw, the snow backed up almost to Greensboro in NC, which is west of Raleigh. Maybe that was an ok development. My friend in Greensboro has about a coating now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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