wolfpackwxDC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 North Central NC already starting to accumulate (between Raleigh and Greensboro) - I am liking how quickly the precip is advancing and how far inland as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1008mb low in the Great Lakes is keeping us dry on the back side. Models want to pivot back the end of the storm when it bottoms out and unravels off of NYC. I think Jan 25 2000 did that healthily. There is a chance more precip could be at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Cranky sent out a tweet earlier that a lot of that stuff in Central NC will lose intensity or die off entirely as the storm starts to really crank and bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Roger Smith forgot to mention his forecast is in CM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Officially light snow here now. band pushing in off the Atlantic looks much larger then on the short terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NC radar already pivoting. Coma head formed rapidly on goes 16. Based on appearance, I'd say the low has shed at least 10mb in the last 3 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, yoda said: I like it lol... looks like 0.20 QPF at DCA... Maybe 0.25? DCA near 3 inches on 22z HRRR with Kuchera lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: DCA near 3 inches on 22z HRRR with Kuchera lol FWIW, I notice HRRR takes its sweet time upping snowfall amounts. Even though it goes out 18 hours, it doesn't seem to be very accurate until the event is basically on the doorstep, and even then it is hit or miss. I've actually found it to be pretty good with our small snowfalls so far this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, I notice HRRR takes its sweet time upping snowfall amounts. Even though it goes out 18 hours, it doesn't seem to be very accurate until the event is basically on the doorstep, and even then it is hit or miss. I've actually found it to be pretty good with our small snowfalls so far this year though. And as usually the case, will decrease them slightly before averaging out. That is my forecast. eta: a couple more + runs possible before the reverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, I notice HRRR takes its sweet time upping snowfall amounts. Even though it goes out 18 hours, it doesn't seem to be very accurate until the event is basically on the doorstep, and even then it is hit or miss. I've actually found it to be pretty good with our small snowfalls so far this year though. I feel like it sometimes over-corrects too. Like during an event it will show x amount of snow to come despite the radar drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks to me on satellite the western low is clearly dominant, if there is a dual-low structure at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said: Looks to me on satellite the western low is clearly dominant, if there is a dual-low structure at all. What would that mean, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said: Looks to me on satellite the western low is clearly dominant, if there is a dual-low structure at all. We want this correct? Obvious question but I don't like to take my knowledge for granted when met speaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: We want this correct? Obvious question but I don't like to take my knowledge for granted when met speaks. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, T. August said: I feel like it sometimes over-corrects too. Like during an event it will show x amount of snow to come despite the radar drying up. I have personally witnessed this several times - it insists MBY is getting x number of inches of additional snow and it's clear the precip is kaput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yes. Thanks. Kind of knew already but I remember the dual low on the Euro that everyone was excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: We want this correct? Obvious question but I don't like to take my knowledge for granted when met speaks. I would think having the energy consolidated further west with a single dominant low would help with pushing snow banding further inland. But there are more knowledgeable mets on here that may know more. The double-low structures some of the models have been putting out have just looked odd and disjointed to me. We shall see though. I'm not going to go as bold as Roger Smith, but at this point I would hedge toward the more western model solutions. The biggest negative factor at the moment is very dry surface air. The fast motion of the storm means every hour counts, any one location has a max potential of 6-8 hours. Don't want to waste half of that time just trying to moisten the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Climate175 said: I know I shouldn't ask this question here. But what is everybody's thoughts on the potential sleet/freezing rain system on Monday? Long range thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Long range thread Thanks. Will go over there then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: I would think having the energy consolidated further west with a single dominant low would help with pushing snow banding further inland. But there are more knowledgeable mets on here that may know more. The double-low structures some of the models have been putting out have just looked odd and disjointed to me. We shall see though. I'm not going to go as bold as Roger Smith, but at this point I would hedge toward the more western model solutions. The biggest negative factor at the moment is very dry surface air. The fast motion of the storm means every hour counts, any one location has a max potential of 6-8 hours. Don't want to waste half of that time just trying to moisten the column. Met 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Just end every statement with "just a guess" seems to work Roger. Nokesville might do better this time than Leesburg just a guess. Rare occurrence for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We've gone from 28/6 to 28/13 in the last hour here - that's a positive sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thanks. Kind of knew already but I remember the dual low on the Euro that everyone was excited about I think the only reason we started rooting for the dual low is because the eastern low was soooo far out in the Atlantic that it wasn't going to help us. But then the models started to lose dual low and push the main low west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Looks to me on satellite the western low is clearly dominant, if there is a dual-low structure at all. Agreed (fwiw). You rarely see that green color indicating super cold cloud tops on this ir loop. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 DT pushed 2-4" line farther West FWIW He seems to have been playing catch up so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Looks to me on satellite the western low is clearly dominant, if there is a dual-low structure at all. This is good. Western areas of our region need a straight bully to punch into the dry air/subsidence between the coastal and lakes lows. We'll have a good idea within 6 hours if the western extent of model qpf is underdone. It's going to be a boxing match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I have a crappy internet connection right now, but it will be interesting when this is over to go back a few days ago to check out when the gfs was showing that mslp image with clusters to the right and to the left of center to try to understand what the model was seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 54 minutes ago, wolfpackwxDC said: North Central NC already starting to accumulate (between Raleigh and Greensboro) - I am liking how quickly the precip is advancing and how far inland as well! Hey now! This is what I want to hear. One of the early clues for an overperformer in our neck is models busting low with the bulge into central va. Sometimes we get fooled though when the coastal goes nuts and tightens the gradient towards the coast but if my yard is going to get more than 1", I want a whole bunch of yards in central va getting many inches. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, WxMan1 said: Attached are some images from the 18Z GFS regarding the UVVs (omega) within the -12 to -18C layer -- i.e. which would favor better dendritic growth and (thus) higher SLRs. The valid times are for 1 am (06Z), 4 am, 7 am, 10 am, and 1 pm (18Z) These are great 2D fields to look at -- which of course are sort of implied in the point soundings we see via TropicalTidbits. Still, with these 2D images, you can get an idea of where the bands *may* set up. The key thing to note though is somewhere (probably along the I-95 corridor) is going to be in between the better bands W and E. West toward the fall line/orographic "bump" as we typically see now matter WHERE the heaviest QPF is, and East toward the heavier QPF. Should be fun to watch! If anything, you can tell the lift within this layer holds on until close to noon Thursday. Nice! Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.