BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here from the Southeast Forum... My Wifes Family down near Charleston with 6"+ and still snowing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Raleigh seems like heavy virga with a DP of -2 That is some dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 need Wes to give one of his famous how to read a sounding lessons again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 21z RAP came west with the precip shield...0.25" into DC....HRRR holding steady Less than steady, but it upped snow totals, which is good, I guess. Still don't trust the HRRR, but the RGEM/RAP/NAM camp is better than HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Guys. This storm is probably one where HRRR is really going to struggle. It MIGHT be okay if stuff is already happening and can depict banding features, but I don’t know about right now. Plus, it’s still out in time. Keep an eye on it to measure verification later though. If snow was more convective driven, then it could have some merit, but it has struggled with big systems many times before. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfpackwxDC said: Just heard from family in Greenville, NC - currently 33-35 degrees and rain. From what I was seeing, I always expected there to be a mixing issue - maybe with ice/sleet there, but thought they would be sufficiently cold enough to be all frozen. Sort of surprised, but perhaps that bodes well for us with a stronger westward push? I think one of the things we have going for us further north versus central NC is flow off the Atlantic as the circulation becomes well defined. Overcoming very dry air should easier here as moisture is transported in off the atlantic instead of advecting from the south like what's happening in NC. Not saying I think we're going to get some big blob of heavy snow marching in. Just that we should only have hours and hours of virga instead of hours and hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Flakes falling in quinby VA 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 High-res RGEM barely changed from 12z. It's still drier than the RGEM, but a little better for I95. 0.05" - 0.1" near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think one of the things we have going for us further north versus central NC is flow off the Atlantic as the circulation becomes well defined. Overcoming very dry air should easier here as moisture is transported in off the atlantic instead of advecting from the south like what's happening in NC. Not saying I think we're going to get some big blob of heavy snow marching in. Just that we should only have hours and hours of virga instead of hours and hours and hours. What are you hiding from us? When does the big blob start? I'm scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Para Rap smokes DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That should help boost morale in here haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Apparently you're new here. You don't want to post that map ever again young fella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Para Rap smokes DC Do you have QPF or a link to that? Or did I miss the sarcasm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Virga is now reaching Quantico... so if we have hours and hours of virga, at least those hours start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well, so this now looks a bit more interesting! Like I said before, regardless of snow amount, it sure looks like that wind later tomorrow and tomorrow night will feel quite brutal outside as it gets colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Full disclosure...I am prone to radar hallucinations.... Surprised to see that decent returns are showing up near CHO. Due N maybe NNE trajectory. Hoping for flakes...and I am sure you peeps to my east are hoping I see flakes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Check out the RAP. much different. 3-4" Baltimore and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Have studied the current evolution, here's some observations and a revised (upgraded) second call ... 1. The low is now situated at 30N 78W, most features are moving NNE. 2. There will be explosive deepening now to 06z when low should be east of ILM. 3. Western edge of enhanced cloud will merge with reinforcing arctic front about that time. 4. Ship report in warm sector is very encouraging (SE 49 knots, 66 deg over 77 deg water) 5. Cannot stress enough how explosive this storm will be tonight and Thursday. Upgraded forecast amounts for Mid Atl forum regions DCA 4-7" (similar northeast to York PA) BWI 7-10" (similar northeast to PHL and EWR) Delmarva 12-18" raging blizzard gusts to 80 mph possible southeast VA 14-24" gusts to 70 mph possible RIC 10" CHO 4" Western cutoff for snow will be indistinct because of upslope potential and Lake Erie streamers invading the dry zone west of the Blue Ridge, which is about where it would cut off without those factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Have studied the current evolution, here's some observations and a revised (upgraded) second call ... 1. The low is now situated at 30N 78W, most features are moving NNE. 2. There will be explosive deepening now to 06z when low should be east of ILM. 3. Western edge of enhanced cloud will merge with reinforcing arctic front about that time. 4. Ship report in warm sector is very encouraging (SE 49 knots, 66 deg over 77 deg water) 5. Cannot stress enough how explosive this storm will be tonight and Thursday. Upgraded forecast amounts for Mid Atl forum regions DCA 4-7" (similar northeast to York PA) BWI 7-10" (similar northeast to PHL and EWR) Delmarva 12-18" raging blizzard gusts to 80 mph possible southeast VA 14-24" gusts to 70 mph possible RIC 10" CHO 4" Western cutoff for snow will be indistinct because of upslope potential and Lake Erie streamers invading the dry zone west of the Blue Ridge, which is about where it would cut off without those factors. Your lips to God's ears. That's one heck of a bold call. So you think this will basically blow up after all.Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If DCA gets more than an inch this is a win. Lol. That call for 4-7” is bold to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Have studied the current evolution, here's some observations and a revised (upgraded) second call ... 1. The low is now situated at 30N 78W, most features are moving NNE. 2. There will be explosive deepening now to 06z when low should be east of ILM. 3. Western edge of enhanced cloud will merge with reinforcing arctic front about that time. 4. Ship report in warm sector is very encouraging (SE 49 knots, 66 deg over 77 deg water) 5. Cannot stress enough how explosive this storm will be tonight and Thursday. Upgraded forecast amounts for Mid Atl forum regions DCA 4-7" (similar northeast to York PA) BWI 7-10" (similar northeast to PHL and EWR) Delmarva 12-18" raging blizzard gusts to 80 mph possible southeast VA 14-24" gusts to 70 mph possible RIC 10" CHO 4" Western cutoff for snow will be indistinct because of upslope potential and Lake Erie streamers invading the dry zone west of the Blue Ridge, which is about where it would cut off without those factors. You have big balls my friend. I sure hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snowfall rates will be 2-3" an hour once the storm explodes, so my call really means that I think DCA is on the edge of heavier snow bands and gets a few hours of good snow, perhaps not continuous, adding up to 4-7" ... and that may end up being like 1" cover in some places and 1-2' in others once the wind gets done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Like what I'm seeing. Winds now blowing out of the east and the DP is rising. College Park Airport (KCGS) Humidity 49% Wind Speed E 3 mph Barometer 30.12 in Dewpoint 12°F (-11°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Last update 3 Jan 6:06 pm EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Aggressive forecast Roger and my Jeep tires are ready. I’ll say this...gotta love the airmass we have in place. Cannot beat these temps for a costal. They are literally perfect for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: HRRR'ed I like it lol... looks like 0.20 QPF at DCA... Maybe 0.25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trained spotter reported 1.5 inches in Tramway, NC, about 45 mi SW of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 All the short range stuff shows Delaware getting stuck between the two heavy bands. I hope that changes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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