midatlanticweather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: More weenies are happy with the 3k. No doubt about that. Unless you live in western Loudoun.. Lol! Mby post. Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Unless you live in western Loudoun.. Lol! Mby post. Apologies It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 3k NAM soundings are glorious. Dendrite to the max. Huge omegas and a deep dendrite growth zone. Hope it’s right. Could you show a quick example on the sounding in regards to omegas and the DGZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Could you show a quick example on the sounding in regards to omegas and the DGZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wow, that DGZ looks worlds better than the sounding I posted yesterday off the GFS. Ratios would be better than 10:1 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 32/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 wow GFS is 11 MB stronger at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Could you show a quick example on the sounding in regards to omegas and the DGZ? WxUSAF already got a good one, but here is about the best for FFx Co. Basically, we want the best lift in the right temperature zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: wow GFS is 8 MB stronger at 12 Not sure that’s good but ok. Might pull precip inward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not sure that’s good but ok. Might pull precip inward All models show the storm deepening more rapidly than expected. Only question is does it mean capture or tuck? I doen't have the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS nearly the same in general. Cut totals near the bay like the rgem. Pushed the shield a little west. The only thing of note imo is the bulge to the west in central VA and NC. Not sure how much value guidance can add at this point. I suppose 0z will be important because the storm is more organized @ init. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nice view of deep moisture getting ready to pour in off the atlantic on AKQ radar. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20z HRRR looks good for about a half inch in DC. Trace/dusting for anywhere north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: 20z HRRR looks good for about a half inch in DC. Trace/dusting for anywhere north of DC. Hate to be that “HRRR sucks guy” but, the HRRR has sucked this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Unless you live in western Loudoun.. Lol! Mby post. Apologies What 75 miles would do for the PWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: 20z HRRR looks good for about a half inch in DC. Trace/dusting for anywhere north of DC. Yeah, the HRRR is trending a bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Hate to be that “HRRR sucks guy” but, the HRRR has sucked this year. Honestly I feel like it’s never good. Get burned every time I use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 While not spectacular, the 18Z GFS is the single best short term GFS run for I-95 and west so far. It relaxed the gradient, so it's a more gradual drop-off as you head west from the bay. That's the best part of the run, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RAP gets 0.1 to IAD and 0.25 to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mini comma head forming with that convective blob east of Jacksonville. Some lighting close to the outer banks now also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, the HRRR is trending a bit drier. If i'm gong to use a crappy QPF model today I prefer the lateast RAP which gives DC .25 and my house around 0.50" liquid. If i"m going to be a weenie, I mightest well fall into the trap. I still like a dusting to 2" for DC and 2-4 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Honestly I feel like it’s never good. Get burned every time I use it. I noticed last storm (Dec 8-9) that the HRRR trended drier into the night hours, and we ended up getting much more. It's just not that good. Even during the Blizzard of 2016, I remember it had 22" for DC before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just getting home from work and Prince George Va went from an advisory to warned, 4-6" with locally up to 8". 32/11, still pretty dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That sounding looks even better than one this morning. I like. God I hope it’s right. That’s a great way to pick up an easy inch or two west of 95 without too much trouble. Bad snow growth with current precip could struggle to reach 1” in spots. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I noticed last storm (Dec 8-9) that the HRRR trended drier into the night hours, and we ended up getting much more. It's just not that good. Even during the Blizzard of 2016, I remember it had 22" for DC before sunrise. If memory serves...wasnt it also kinda crappy last March with what became a "sleet storm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: If memory serves...wasnt it also kinda crappy last March with what became a "sleet storm"? Yes. It vastly overestimated precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I noticed last storm (Dec 8-9) that the HRRR trended drier into the night hours, and we ended up getting much more. It's just not that good. Even during the Blizzard of 2016, I remember it had 22" for DC before sunrise. I agree it's a bad model but the dec 8-9 storm was a qpf bust low and a ratio bust high. The hrrr was right about the lower qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: If i'm gong to use a crappy QPF model today I prefer the lateast RAP which gives DC .25 and my house around 0.50" liquid. If i"m going to be a weenie, I mightest well fall into the trap. I still like a dusting to 2" for DC and 2-4 at my house. I will take 2 inches and be happy Nice write up in CWG. I like the map showing historic storm tracks. The cool thing about this one is... if it were to "boom" and give us like ten inches.. this would be the first MECS with such a track.. but at this point I dont think a wobble in the track could cause enough of the precip shield to get over top if us and give us ten inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21z RAP came west with the precip shield...0.25" into DC....HRRR holding steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, bigjohndc said: To our south it has taken at-least three hours for flakes to start falling. Just heard from family in Greenville, NC - currently 33-35 degrees and rain. From what I was seeing, I always expected there to be a mixing issue - maybe with ice/sleet there, but thought they would be sufficiently cold enough to be all frozen. Sort of surprised, but perhaps that bodes well for us with a stronger westward push? Edit - as of 5:30, changing to sleet/snow - temps down to 32... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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