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Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc


mappy

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4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Is that a Virga band over RVA, or is there any ground truth to it?

There's going to be HOURS of virga tonight. Get ready for all the whiny posts about how the atmosphere is stealing all the snow and things like that. lol. We probably won't see anything start reaching the ground until after midnight and it will start in the SE zones first. Until then, radar hallucinations will be out of control and meltdowns will soon follow. 

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18 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Weenie intellicast radar starting to light up in central VA and SE WV.  Inconsequential virga or signs of the precip shield building a little further NW than anticipated? 

It has zoomed past me here, and now all the way out to almost Beckley, WV.....but it is all virga here. Still nice to see moisture make it back here though.

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23 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

From what I’ve heard, it’s been negative for a while.

yea it's supposed to, but the whole issue was that it's too far east.  i don't know that will change because of nowcasting.  i'm expecting 1-2" here.  anything more is a bonus.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I see you've done this before. 

Once you do it once, every single time it happens again is a carbon copy. 

There were reports of light snow and sleet in VA Beach a little while ago. You can see the legit returns on radar with this loop:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-12

 

I suppose the ocean moisture influx will help our area overcome the dry air much easier than what has been happening all day in NC. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is going to cut back some. The hourly loop isn't as good as 12z. Still a good run though. About the same extent to the west just lower totals. 

all the off runs seem to be drier than the 00z and 12z runs. don get me started on the 18z GEM lol

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Check out the 850 moisture transport on the SPC mesoanalysis.  We shouldn't have any problems moistening up along I-95.

Pattern for guidance to emphasize that coastal front is YUGE for us. Helps place the mid level frontogen over us which hopefully will give us some moderate snow overnight with great dendrite production.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

I'll be honest. Everything seems to be racing north faster than what the models, including 18z, have shown it would. Starting to concern me a bit.

If you're concerned then everything is going as planned....haha

It's been progged to be a very fast mover the whole time. I'm not sure I see that much difference in forward speed on anything. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If you're concerned then everything is going as planned....haha

It's been progged to be a very fast mover the whole time. I'm not sure I see that much difference in forward speed on anything. 

just seems faster....maybe it's the virga that's shooting north is faster than what I was expecting

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If you're concerned then everything is going as planned....haha

It's been progged to be a very fast mover the whole time. I'm not sure I see that much difference in forward speed on anything. 

What is good to see is what MN has been pointing out about the DGZ being primed for dendrite production. It looks like on recent guidance .2” is pretty consistent from about BWI-MTN westward to GAI. If that’s the case and with the ML fronto were seeing on the progs some of those 4” dreams are not dead for a select few assuming modeling does not fail us. 

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll be honest. Everything seems to be racing north faster than what the models, including 18z, have shown it would. Starting to concern me a bit.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I would think faster is better.  Get the storm out ahead of the northern stream. More chance to come north before negative influence. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I would think faster is better.  Get the storm out ahead of the northern stream. More chance to come north before negative influence. 

I was under the same impression.  If this thing clears up through are area before getting kicked I see that as one of the ways we can get higher totals. There could be other problems with dry air and moisture transport but one step at a time

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I would think faster is better.  Get the storm out ahead of the northern stream. More chance to come north before negative influence. 

I don't like it when things don't go as I thought....like I said, it's virga that's shooting out well north of precip hitting the ground

honestly, how often do you see virga in central VA and the closest precip hitting the ground is as far away as coastal SC?

hey, maybe it turns out to be a good thing, or maybe no change whatsoever

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