ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is that a Virga band over RVA, or is there any ground truth to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: Is that a Virga band over RVA, or is there any ground truth to it? Virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Please forgive me if this is a stupid question, but I would think wind direction (namely seeing wind out of the east at some point) would be a feature we would want to focus on? Most definitely onshore flow is something you want to see early on. Bands will be rotating in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It was 35/12 here at 2pm, and is now 32/5. Not a deal breaker, but would like to see that DP start creeping back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Is that a Virga band over RVA, or is there any ground truth to it? There's going to be HOURS of virga tonight. Get ready for all the whiny posts about how the atmosphere is stealing all the snow and things like that. lol. We probably won't see anything start reaching the ground until after midnight and it will start in the SE zones first. Until then, radar hallucinations will be out of control and meltdowns will soon follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The air definitely has the smell of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Weenie intellicast radar starting to light up in central VA and SE WV. Inconsequential virga or signs of the precip shield building a little further NW than anticipated? It has zoomed past me here, and now all the way out to almost Beckley, WV.....but it is all virga here. Still nice to see moisture make it back here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: From what I’ve heard, it’s been negative for a while. yea it's supposed to, but the whole issue was that it's too far east. i don't know that will change because of nowcasting. i'm expecting 1-2" here. anything more is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I see you've done this before. Once you do it once, every single time it happens again is a carbon copy. There were reports of light snow and sleet in VA Beach a little while ago. You can see the legit returns on radar with this loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-12 I suppose the ocean moisture influx will help our area overcome the dry air much easier than what has been happening all day in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It was 35/12 here at 2pm, and is now 32/5. Not a deal breaker, but would like to see that DP start creeping back up. Check out the 850 moisture transport on the SPC mesoanalysis. We shouldn't have any problems moistening up along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 To our south it has taken at-least three hours for flakes to start falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Guys, for goodness sakes. BANTER THREAD. use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is going to cut back some. The hourly loop isn't as good as 12z. Still a good run though. About the same extent to the west just lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM is going to cut back some. The hourly loop isn't as good as 12z. Still a good run though. About the same extent to the west just lower totals. all the off runs seem to be drier than the 00z and 12z runs. don get me started on the 18z GEM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the 850 moisture transport on the SPC mesoanalysis. We shouldn't have any problems moistening up along I-95. Pattern for guidance to emphasize that coastal front is YUGE for us. Helps place the mid level frontogen over us which hopefully will give us some moderate snow overnight with great dendrite production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM is going to cut back some. The hourly loop isn't as good as 12z. Still a good run though. About the same extent to the west just lower totals. Looks like 0.20" QPF or so over DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM is going to cut back some. The hourly loop isn't as good as 12z. Still a good run though. About the same extent to the west just lower totals. Looks like precip lingers longer though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Looks like 0.20" QPF or so over DCA and along I-95 Yeah only main difference is it gave some of Baltimore's precip to Montgomery county, overall still looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I like the duration of the RGEM. If it snows and I'm not awake to see it, it might as well not have snowed at all. I'm about rates more than inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like 0.20" QPF or so over DCA Yea, just did some different stuff with the banding. Not as much qpf near the bay in general so that's the cutback. In my yard it improved so I'm obviously good with it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'll be honest. Everything seems to be racing north faster than what the models, including 18z, have shown it would. Starting to concern me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 FWIW 18z RGEM Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I'll be honest. Everything seems to be racing north faster than what the models, including 18z, have shown it would. Starting to concern me a bit. What are you concerned about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: I'll be honest. Everything seems to be racing north faster than what the models, including 18z, have shown it would. Starting to concern me a bit. If you're concerned then everything is going as planned....haha It's been progged to be a very fast mover the whole time. I'm not sure I see that much difference in forward speed on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you're concerned then everything is going as planned....haha It's been progged to be a very fast mover the whole time. I'm not sure I see that much difference in forward speed on anything. just seems faster....maybe it's the virga that's shooting north is faster than what I was expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mitch, I thought we were wanting the moisture to race north faster, to get it here longer before it could get kicked east. Why would you be concerned the other way now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you're concerned then everything is going as planned....haha It's been progged to be a very fast mover the whole time. I'm not sure I see that much difference in forward speed on anything. What is good to see is what MN has been pointing out about the DGZ being primed for dendrite production. It looks like on recent guidance .2” is pretty consistent from about BWI-MTN westward to GAI. If that’s the case and with the ML fronto were seeing on the progs some of those 4” dreams are not dead for a select few assuming modeling does not fail us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'll be honest. Everything seems to be racing north faster than what the models, including 18z, have shown it would. Starting to concern me a bit. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I would think faster is better. Get the storm out ahead of the northern stream. More chance to come north before negative influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I would think faster is better. Get the storm out ahead of the northern stream. More chance to come north before negative influence. I was under the same impression. If this thing clears up through are area before getting kicked I see that as one of the ways we can get higher totals. There could be other problems with dry air and moisture transport but one step at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I would think faster is better. Get the storm out ahead of the northern stream. More chance to come north before negative influence. I don't like it when things don't go as I thought....like I said, it's virga that's shooting out well north of precip hitting the ground honestly, how often do you see virga in central VA and the closest precip hitting the ground is as far away as coastal SC? hey, maybe it turns out to be a good thing, or maybe no change whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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