Z-Cast Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Guys, really think this is an I-95 corridor and EAST system. Maybe NOVA gets lucky with another slight W shift, but even the latest 3K NAM doesn't budge much. Sharp cut-offs are our specialty with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanInMd Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Raleigh radar has some yellows heading NW. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is overall drier than the 12z 3K Cutoff is further west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Deck Pic said: Cutoff is further west... It's not an insane North South bomb like 12z had so it is wetter to the west and not as wet to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Stores are sold out of everything on the shore no water milk bread tp nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Deck Pic said: Cutoff is further west... Yea, instead of maxing amounts with a brutal cutoff it's a nice spread out event for many more people to enjoy. We need to get Winchester in the game. Then we KNOW we're getting hit hard here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warnings extended for coastal NJ and DE. Legit storm down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: More weenies are happy with the 3k. No doubt about that. Lol, 0.25" QPF for MBY. I've gotta hope for 20:1 ratios, and I'm golden. A bit bullish, but the trend is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 0.25" QPF gets into all of Fairfax County... 12z had the western part in like 0.1 Yes the shield did expand west, however the heavier QPF moved east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, instead of maxing amounts with a brutal cutoff it's a nice spread out event for many more people to enjoy. We need to get Winchester in the game. Then we KNOW we're getting hit hard here. lol Still time to trend. If Winchester gets an inch its definitely game on in the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: More weenies are happy with the 3k. No doubt about that. Yes this weenie is happy. That dark green is close to my yard in PWC. Still close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That thick, heavy area of clouds moving in off the ocean off SC coast as depicted on sat/pic below is bringing with it heavy rains off the ocean moving NW http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-09-48-1-100 https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, instead of maxing amounts with a brutal cutoff it's a nice spread out event for many more people to enjoy. We need to get Winchester in the game. Then we KNOW we're getting hit hard here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like the mid level cloud deck is somewhere between I-64 and I-66. DCA reporting clouds at 25kft, while CHO is reporting 11kft. Should move in right at sunset. The mid level cloud deck has reached Fredericksburg, can see the edge to the north. 33/8 here atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nowcast update mentioned earlier about low hugging closer to coast and example at that time if precip overspreading 2/3 of SC and not 1/3 as model depicted departing Arctic air masses with an even colder one moving in will befuddle models as to convection robbing-we see this at times when convection is running west to east well to our south, like ms/al/ga/fl don't know why mechanically but when convection aligns north to south right along coast the same moisture rob does not occur so not worried about convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some returns on LWX as far west as Petersburg, WV and Cumberland, MD. Likely virga since it's light but that's pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes this weenie is happy. That dark green is close to my yard in PWC. Still close call It's been a good day. Euro/ukie are the driest but they both moved west. While the NAMs might/probably be overdone (hopefully not) it is comforting to see the western extent go west again. Living on the edge sucks but now my friends to the west are living on the edge and I have room to spare. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That thick, heavy area of clouds moving in off the ocean off SC coast as depicted on sat/pic below is bringing with it heavy rains off the ocean moving NW http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-09-48-1-100 https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Man it sure looks like the trough wants to go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Clouds are getting lower and thicker in Gainesville 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I lived in Upper Marlboro at the time and I can assure you we were in the white band on this map, received at least 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Man it sure looks like the trough wants to go negative From what I’ve heard, it’s been negative for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I like the look of that blue blob in Central North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19z HRRR is basically 0.10" near DC. Maybe half of that at IAD. And for whatever reason, it keeps the gusts much lower than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: From what I’ve heard, it’s been negative for a while. If you look at the national 500mb analysis on the SPC Meso page, it's neutral going slightly negative right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, instead of maxing amounts with a brutal cutoff it's a nice spread out event for many more people to enjoy. We need to get Winchester in the game. Then we KNOW we're getting hit hard here. lol I am down with that! I have been noticing that the meso's are showing a band set up to the west associated with the northern system. That might be the only real way we see anything out here out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Weenie intellicast radar starting to light up in central VA and SE WV. Inconsequential virga or signs of the precip shield building a little further NW than anticipated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Man the clouds rushed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawone Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Weenie intellicast radar starting to light up in central VA and SE WV. Inconsequential virga or signs of the precip shield building a little further NW than anticipated? Virga right now. I'm in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Weenie intellicast radar starting to light up in central VA and SE WV. Inconsequential virga or signs of the precip shield building a little further NW than anticipated? It's going to be hours of virga but I can't find any composite sim radars that match how things look in real time. Don't think it means much but it's not a bad thing no matter how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Please forgive me if this is a stupid question, but I would think wind direction (namely seeing wind out of the east at some point) would be a feature we would want to focus on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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