arlwx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest analysis shows very strong low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast this morning. This can be seen via the comma head signature in the satellite imagery. Arctic high pressure is building over the northern Plains. The low will continue to intensify as it moves up the Mid- Atlantic coast this morning and well off to our north and east this afternoon. A band of snow has moved into eastern portions of the area overnight. This band will remain nearly stationary through early this morning before weakening during the mid- morning hours as drier air works its way in from the north and forcing weakens in response to the low pulling away from our area. Over the next several hours through mid-morning. The heaviest snow is expected along and east of of Interstate 95. Will continue with winter storm warnings for extreme southern Maryland and Winter Weather Advisories elsewhere. For locations north and west across north-central Maryland into northern Virginia. No snow has fallen yet...but latest hires guidance shows a period of light snow early this morning and this makes sense given some weak frontogenetical forcing at the mid-levels of the atmosphere that is progged to increase on the global models as well. Therefore...the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place for now with a coating up to an inch of snow most likely. Farther north and west toward the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains and points westward...mainly dry conditions are expected. (snip) TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Arctic high pressure will be directly overhead to start the day Sunday, leading to a very cold morning. This will slide offshore during the day, allowing for light southerly flow to develop. 850mb temperatures increase markedly during the day (near -2C), but lack of boundary layer mixing will likely limit surface temperature response. Have shown highs in the 20s to around 30F. The next system will then push eastward Sunday night and Monday with southwest flow intensifying aloft. This will bring increased chances for precipitation Monday and Monday night. While temperature profiles are expected to modify, the low levels may remain cold enough for mixed precipitation, and with ground temperatures that will be quite cold leading into the event, will have to watch for potential ice concerns. (snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snow had tapered off for an hour or so in B'more City, but started coming down again as the band to the west built east a bit, getting some breeze now as well. 23/18 w/ 80% humidity currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Hills down the road from me already appear to have some willing daredevils attempting to not destroy their cars tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like the typical band to the west of the cities is setting up again. More of a N/S axis though with DC on the southern portion running up to and beyond Manchester. I've been staring at that for a while, normally tends to set up in a SW to NE configuration just north of DC proper. This one appears to want to plant vertical right through DC on upwards. Will be interesting to see any impact from the band coming down from FDK...perhaps we'll just create a superband and we can all dance with join. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looking at the low it doesn't look to be taking as hard a right off of OBX as some of the models suggested. Actually looks to be some wobbles now with it like you would see with a tropical system. Seeing all the convection on the north side may be hindering it's eastward movement. Needless to say a farther track north keeps the snow in longer. Still early so lets see where the low goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 CBBT is officially shut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Green Death Band a mile to my east is parked there lol. Congrats to folks east of the Potomac. Maybe I was wrong about the dry air winning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Very heavy band on the shore right now pushing 1.7-2.0 per hour this will definitely be over a foot or more here by 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, terpsnation said: I've been staring at that for a while, normally tends to set up in a SW to NE configuration just north of DC proper. This one appears to want to plant vertical right through DC on upwards. Will be interesting to see any impact from the band coming down from FDK...perhaps we'll just create a superband and we can all dance with join. That band from the west is probably the last Hurrah so the longer it takes to pull east the longer we see snow. The speed of that eastward will depend on where the low goes from here. Low continues on a more northerly component and that will serve to delay that band somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the low it doesn't look to be taking as hard a right off of OBX as some of the models suggested. Actually looks to be some wobbles now with it like you would see with a tropical system. Seeing all the convection on the north side may be hindering it's eastward movement. Needless to say a farther track north keeps the snow in longer. Still early so lets see where the low goes from here. It looks like it may be thinking about its move to the right - you can see from the precip caving in in SC from W to E towards the shore. The low is starting to move away from the coast, so the good returns down there closest to the low are going to probably be the best prognosticators on the radar as to where the low is going and how fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Back in the dry air again after a nice hour of moderate, windy, low visibility snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Band is forming to my west. I remember looking at some model runs earlier. They clearly showed I'd be IN BETWEEN bands lmao. lol lol lol. Well at least I have some very very very very very very very very very very very light snow. It was WeatherWxMan back on Page 9. He posted the 18x GFS UVV's, the panels he posted on that page detailed the possibility of I 95 ending up in-between the two big deathbands. It has now come to pass. I am in-between the two massive deathbands. But, congratulations to the big winners in both bands. May they get many inches of snow tonight and end up with strong winds later today blowing snow all over the place in a true deep winter setting. At least I got my car top coating of one eighth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Started snowing here at 3am and the intensity has slowly picked up to where are seeing rates approaching 1/2 inch an hour at this point. Temps are now sitting at 19 degrees, down one degree from 20 seen shortly before the snow started. Somewhat brisk breeze out of the N/NE. Total snowfall is roughly half an inch at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This west band is legit. Moderate snow still small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice snow squall in Gainesville now. Might have been our first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice snow and some blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My God. One of the most epic jebwalks I've ever taken. My car is encased in ice The parking lot is ice Can't get a good measurement because of the wild winds. Easily over 40 in gusts. Airport gusting to 45. I had to turn back because I almost got knocked off my feet by a gust. This is insane. I need to go back out. CONGRATULATIONS! You deserved it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Its breezy. The snow rate IS picking up a bit, and I am really praying HARD, I mean I am praying harder than ever before, for these two deathbands to MERGE over me! Please, let this happen! Those north winds are kicking up a LOT at times! Snow is blowing off the roofs! This is very very cool! Please dear lord, please let these two green deathbands MERGE over me while the bands are not moving! Please, just this once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just gusted to 58mph in quinby va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1.5" 23/21 Severna Park My total has only gone up .25" in the past hour and 45 minutes. Hopefully we can squeeze out another inch. Im hoping this band stays over top of me. It looks stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wow. Man I tell you, this wind is LEGIT. You really need to go back out there, right now, and EXPERIENCE this, on the storm's terms. Don't hold back at all. Deliberately walk in-between buildings. Seek out that VENTURI EFFECT with the winds! Get blown around! Let the Blizzard have its way with you! This is the only way. You MUST do this. You must get smashed into things just like in a mosh pit. You wanted this storm. You are there, Go for it! You know you want to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This band saved me out here. Should be able to break an inch from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I did. I wasn't going to let this storm PUNK ME. Pics and video forthcoming... You MUST go out in it NUMEROUS times. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Pouring snow. An inch out of these last few bands would do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Wind really picking up to go with snow coming down. Not the biggest storm for us but outside has that frozen tundra look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 Pixie dust snow falling. No idea how much as it’s all wind blown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 SHWEET VIDEO!!!!!!! North winds here are gusting over 30 mph! Snow is picking up, and it is not only blowing off the roofs, it is blowing along the sidewalks, roads, it is getting very fun, the depth is near impossible to measure because of drifting! Its dry snow at 23 degrees, some of it has drifted off my back porch and covered up part of my back lawn! That green band is forming directly over eastern Prince William!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Hardest snow of the year in Arlington. Roads are clear so I’m guessing something went wrong overnight but I’ll enjoy what I have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Woke up and took one look at radar, was pleased to see returns over me. Got up to look outside - nothing falling and not even a full car topper. Gratz to those cashing in though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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