mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR at 18Z is the farthest west of any of the HRRR runs with accumulating snows into central VA Compare the 18Z run to prior ones here; go to top left of page and on the drop down menu just choose a prior run and it takes you to the same actual hour so long as you don't pick too late of an hour that wasn't covered on the prior run http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010318&fh=16&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Temperatures up nicely, balmy 36 here in NW DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 53 degrees not far off the coast of Norfolk http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?image=sfc&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Agree . And There's always surprises with these big ones . It wouldn't surprise if the short range models play catch up to the end. Mitch...you're on it man..bravo I will admit...a rapidly developing storm progged to be very intense is one of the situations that even with today's models can end up having last minute upside. All models run qpf through the corridor so it's not like we still hoping to get "anything at all" in the region. My worry is convection off shore screws up moisture transport and that leads to disappointment even as meager as it is for most folks. However, would not take much to push an upside bust west... There will be A LOT of hallucinations over the next 12 hours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If obs over the next few hours start to look significantly different than the short range models I think 3-6 inches could be on the table for DC metro. Especially if we get an early onset and a slower NS kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: HRRR at 18Z is the farthest west of any of the HRRR runs with accumulating snows into central VA Compare the 18Z run to prior ones here; go to top left of page and on the drop down menu just choose a prior run and it takes you to the same actual hour so long as you don't pick too late of an hour that wasn't covered on the prior run http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010318&fh=16&r=us_ma&dpdt= Totals go up to almost 6" for the Richmond people. BIG impacts to the city and metro RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Are you sure it wasn't for DCA? Looking at IAD obs-- there were not 3 consecutive hours of high enough wind gusts. DCA did meet criteria for 3 consecutive on-the-hour observations in a row (2:52 pm, 3:52 pm, 4:52 pm), which Capital Weather Gang pointed out. But that's really two hours, not three. Nope, it was IAD. I have a screenshot from the 3 obs. I'll PM it to you once I dig it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 my family in charleston, sc says they've got roughly an inch atm and coming down good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 53 degrees not far off the coast of Norfolk http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?image=sfc&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at I used to live in Hampton Roads and you would sweat every event. Anyone who thinks its bad here should try there for a while. Not today of course because you would like it a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't care what the models say, the radar returns are moving nicely NW here. I know all about lack of ground obs, but the models have sim/rad return products and they don't show such a NW move. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at Here's the NAM 3K for 2PM.....the BEST model for snowfall and it shows nothing like this. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=0 Here's the NAM for 2pm https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=218 even when you click ahead one hour to 3pm, it's still not like reality You remind me of us back in 2000. It warms my heart. Seriously. By hook or by crook, you're going to will this thing to us. But probably not. Godspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 FWIW, 15z SREF mean at DCA is 2" If you remove all of the AR members, and just use the MB members, mean is around 1.5" If you remove all of the MB members, and just use the AR members, mean is around 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You remind me of us back in 2000. It warms my heart. Seriously. By hook or by crook, you're going to will this thing to us. But probably not. Godspeed. Man, I can't believe it has been 18 years since that day. But I'll tell you, even though I'm a weenie, I think this turns out decent enough all things considered. One thing I am noticing is that it "looks" like the thing is going faster than models showed in their sim/sat pics. Might help the low get further north, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 it would be kind of lol if the whole system shifts west to the richmond bmore corridor. if jan 2000 can bust in our favor, all we need is 1/3 of that type of a bust, so it's within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My worry is convection off shore screws up moisture transport and that leads to disappointment even as meager as it is for most folks. However, would not take much to push an upside bust west... There will be A LOT of hallucinations over the next 12 hours. lol I’m very worried about convection. I also wouldn’t be surprised (totally) if I woke up to 4” and it snowing fairly heavily. It’s still a tough forecast. I guess our cold temps ensures that even if we’re robbed of moisture from convection, whatever does fall will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not to get to technical but that blob off the North Carolina coast seems to be pushing bigger blob north toward Dumfries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m very worried about convection. I also wouldn’t be surprised (totally) if I woke up to 4” and it snowing fairly heavily. It’s still a tough forecast. I guess our cold temps ensures that even if we’re robbed of moisture from convection, whatever does fall will accumulate. that could very well be the reasoning behind the tight gradient in the models, so if they overamped things maybe that helps us get to advisory level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Not to get to technical but that blob off the North Carolina coast seems to be pushing bigger blob north toward Dumfries What is your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m very worried about convection. I also wouldn’t be surprised (totally) if I woke up to 4” and it snowing fairly heavily. It’s still a tough forecast. I guess our cold temps ensures that even if we’re robbed of moisture from convection, whatever does fall will accumulate. If we woke up to 4" and snow it'd be a freaking regional meltdown. Absolutely no prep for snow being done right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ger said: What is your location? I'm just west of 95. But the speed of this thing is giving me hope. It looks like returns could be pressing into EZF by 9pm tonight. I don't think I've seen any model show that. However I haven't delved into Deep Thunder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Dry air really letting temps skyrocket. Some places like College Park are 36/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't care what the models say, the radar returns are moving nicely NW here. I know all about lack of ground obs, but the models have sim/rad return products and they don't show such a NW move. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at Here's the NAM 3K for 2PM.....the BEST model for snowfall and it shows nothing like this. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=0 Here's the NAM for 2pm https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=218 even when you click ahead one hour to 3pm, it's still not like reality I think that's composite radar. If so, it's not too far off from the NAM 3k. The NAM 3k predicts a lot of virga over VA and NC around now. What do ground reports say? Just in case dry air is a big issue, I'm going to turn on my sprinklers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, arlwx said: YUCK! From LWX: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-King George- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland and central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of around one inch are expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north central and northern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 St. Marys-Calvert- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. * URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Frederick MD-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch are expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD. In Virginia, Southern Fauquier and Eastern Loudoun. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... MDZ008-012-040530- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T2200Z/ Cecil-Kent MD- Including the cities of Elkton and Chestertown 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Cecil and Kent MD counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday. * URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... MDZ015-019-020-040530- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T2200Z/ Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Including the cities of Centreville, Easton, and Denton 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Queen Annes, Talbot and Caroline counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 900 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Westmoreland-Richmond-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Eastern Hanover- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Lawrenceville, Petersburg, Hopewell, Mechanicsville, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Sandston, Aylett, King William, West Point, King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 900 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts east of Interstate 95. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday. Moving in the right direction if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Flurries in Va Beach right on the water per family there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18Z NAM looks better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: I'm just west of 95. But the speed of this thing is giving me hope. It looks like returns could be pressing into EZF by 9pm tonight. I don't think I've seen any model show that. However I haven't delved into Deep Thunder lol Hours of virga is what you will see before anything reaches the ground unless this thing moves in unexpected direction. If we even see snow west of 95 it will be very early morning I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Virga showing up on the I-64 corridor. This thin cirrus will give everyone an amaizing pre-storm sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The driest air seems to be farther nw so far on this run. Don't know if it will translate into anything in the way of increased precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we woke up to 4" and snow it'd be a freaking regional meltdown. Absolutely no prep for snow being done right now. Yet the secondary and tertiary roads in Fairfax County were brined like Kosher dill pickles days in advance of 0.5" of snow last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z ETA nice west move with precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we woke up to 4" and snow it'd be a freaking regional meltdown. Absolutely no prep for snow being done right now. True. I do snow removal both residential and commercial...Down in annapolis today running around and people have no clue it's supposed to snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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