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Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc


mappy

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No. Very different. Let's not get off track. The premise is when a coastal low rapidly deepens it can pull best dynamics closer to the center at the expense of the edges. The euro is the most accurate global at short range with qpf and it was much drier than everything else in our area. That can't be ignored even when meso's show much bigger totals. 

Ah, so the Euro, then, may have (if what that NAM run showed were to verify) correctly predicted when the low was going to rapidly deepen the most...hence the drier QPF? (And my apologied, didn't mean to take things off topic, just wondering about what things help us and what things screw us, lol)

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pretty cool looking.  synoptic comparisons aside, the radar depiction reminds me of a further south and east jan 2000, without a doubt.  atlantic moisture is no joke and not surprised to see it snow moderate/heavy...especially with temps in the 20s...which was exactly how jan 2000 was.

 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Didn't Bob say that would happen?  

No, I said that's what the nam showed and what can happen with any rapidly deepening coastal. There can be big winners that weren't forecasted well too.  Like west of RIC in Mar 2013. All big storms have surprises in places. Sometimes good ones and other times bad ones. I don't know how it's going to play out on the edge. Right now things look half decent. Chips fall and have fun 

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