BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:16 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Uh-oh....any other examples of when this happened in past "busts"? (Certainly sounds like something that would happen up here, lol) Expand All the time. eta: 1 NAM means nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:16 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Uh-oh....any other examples of when this happened in past "busts"? (Certainly sounds like something that would happen up here, lol) Expand March 13 comes to mind. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 What makes no sense is that below is the radar reflectivity at 2am off the 3k Nam. One problem. That's what radar looks like right now at 9:18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This whole storm has been hyped to death. It will underperform all the way up the coast. Book it. Only notable because of snow in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 01z HRRR seemed to tick east and trim back snow totals. From 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:20 AM, mitchnick said: What makes no sense is that below is the radar reflectivity at 2am off the 3k Nam. One problem. That's what radar looks like right now at 9:18. Expand The straight line west edge also suggests they ran out of time/data and Darryl just went in and fixed it with a pencil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Please be mindful that if you can’t handle weather, log off and spare us your emotional drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Latest HRRR, FWIW, cutback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Steady light to moderate snow has begun here at Rehoboth. Nice coating on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:20 AM, mitchnick said: What makes no sense is that below is the radar reflectivity at 2am off the 3k Nam. One problem. That's what radar looks like right now at 9:18. Expand Yeah, the NAM 1 hr from now looks like we're not even gonna get virga until tomorrow Pretty sure there's no reason to panic. NAM isn't up to par with the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Switch to heavy snow in SE North Carolina along with a switch in wind to NW. Storm must be pivoting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Maybe it's a hiccup but the latest HRRR looks a lot like the last run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 1:59 AM, WxWatcher007 said: First ob from Ocean City: light rain/snow mix. Breezy. Choppy seas. I’m gonna rock here high up in the hotel. Expand Sent you a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:18 AM, Bob Chill said: March 13 comes to mind. Lol Expand Was something like this also responsible for the Dec 2010 storm of misery? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:07 AM, Bob Chill said: Nam did the one thing I was nervous about...outer edge dies as the coastal wraps up. Could be right but who knows. Expand It sure could be right. I have seen this happen right before my eyes on radar returns up my way during rapidly developing coastals. It seems more prevalent with Miller B's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nice bands coming in from the SE. I can see the virga clearly with the lights of Baltimore reflecting on it. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 912 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rapidly strengthening low pressure will pass east of the region tonight into Thursday. Arctic high pressure rebuilds Thursday night into the weekend. High pressure will move off the coast early next week as another storm system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Update... Going forecast generally on track, so will leave previous discussion below for those interested. Low pressure (996 mb) southeast of Cape Hatteras as of 9 pm. Radar returns noted across the southeastern half of the KLWX radar scope, but dewpoint depressions still 20-25 degrees, so at worst a flurry is possible as the lower levels saturate. Latest guidance in agreement that will take place over the next 2 to 4 hours. Made a couple tweaks to better reflect that timing in the PoPs (it was already in our onset graphic), but ultimately it doesnt change the snowfall accumulation forecast. The other place where forecast could go astray is predawn/toward sunrise, which is when snowfall should be at its heaviest. Subtle differences in QPF or snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) might result in adjustments of an inch or two. At this time, it looks like the best frontogenetical forcing will be over the eastern shore. If that were to shift west, then an enhanced band of accumulation would set up, which would require a Warning. While there are some superensemble members that do support this, the synoptic forcing elements do not. The next 6 hours will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:25 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Was something like this also responsible for the Dec 2010 storm of misery? Lol Expand No. Very different. Let's not get off track. The premise is when a coastal low rapidly deepens it can pull best dynamics closer to the center at the expense of the edges. The euro is the most accurate global at short range with qpf and it was much drier than everything else in our area. That can't be ignored even when meso's show much bigger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Orange, VA and Louisa, VA both reporting Light Snow now..... Cloudy here in Stafford, 29/10 https://twitter.com/ABC7Alex/status/948740854608531457 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Some heavier echoes along the Rt. 50 corridor up through Fells Point in the last 2 frames of LWX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Some nice banding setting up in SE VA. This thing is starting to crank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 NAM is weird.. RAP has been consistently showing 3-4" for DC and Baltimore. SREF is 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:32 AM, Eskimo Joe said: Some heavier echoes along the Rt. 50 corridor up through Fells Point in the last 2 frames of LWX radar. Expand I'm under that heavier echo and still virga right now. I was staring at the street light for about 5 minutes to see if I could spot any flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:35 AM, Ltrain said: I'm under that heavier echo and still virga right now. I was staring at the street light for about 5 minutes to see if I could spot any flakes. Expand There's still a decent bit of dry air to overcome...00z IAD sounding tells the story: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/18010400_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:28 AM, yoda said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service The next 6 hours will be telling. Expand Does anyone else feel like that last line is a deliberate dig at this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 HRRR doesn’t get measurable precip to DC until ~midnight. Will be interesting to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Here, from the aliens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:37 AM, nj2va said: HRRR doesn’t get measurable precip to DC until ~midnight. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.Kinda seems like an obvious question but the heavier the virga, the faster the dry level fades, yes? Or does it not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:36 AM, eurojosh said: Does anyone else feel like that last line is a deliberate dig at this forum? Expand I thought more a nice shoutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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