mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here you guys go. If it fails, blame Waterboy. I'll take credit otherwise. PLEASE KEEP BANTER IN BANTER THREAD Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 to echo the point even more. While it doesn't specifically say STORM MODE, consider it that way. No banter, keep posts on topic and if you have issues over it not snowing then go elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Right on.. feels like snow. just not much for me in Warrenton.. good luck to you folks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Radar loops, WV, hallucinations and now-casting along with the hi-res model talk all go in here now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 beeline for the hampton roads area...gonna be some fun videos there tomorrow morning... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here is a neat WV link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: beeline for the hampton roads area...gonna be some fun videos there tomorrow morning... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Looks like it may swing West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 another important link... https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=RAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/09/20180031827_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-09-2500x1500.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Radar loops, WV, hallucinations and now-casting along with the hi-res model talk all go in here now, right? Yup, that's fine. But if it gets too bantery, I will be removing posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just before other thread was closed Bob Chill Posted a precip map. It showed eastern 1/3 of SC getting precip. So far eastern 2/3 of SC is getting precip so further west already the kicker perse is the new Arctic airmass front and you can see how the high ne of NS is pushing on it and retarding its eastward motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Still a bit surprised that Wakefield hasn't issued a Blizzard warning for the eastern coast of MD. Looking at the guidance, the wind looks to be about as strong, and right along the shore at least, I doubt there will be an issue with frequent gusts to 35mph during the early morning hours. Could be an issue of visibility though...but I think that probably won't be an issue if we rip at the shore. Maybe later periods will pull the trigger? Winds are strong enough. They need to be sustained or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the current radar and comparing to the 12z euro it appears the euro does have a pretty good handle on the current western extent of the precip in NC. Hopefully as the afternoon progresses we can get central NC to blossom instead of the shield being shunted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: Looks like it may swing West i think there's limits to how far west this system can go without a full phase from the NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Just before other thread was closed Bob Chill Posted a precip map. It showed eastern 1/3 of SC getting precip. So far eastern 2/3 of SC is getting precip so further west already the kicker perse is the new Arctic airmass front and you can see how the high ne of NS is pushing on it and retarding its eastward motion Don't just look at the radar... You need to look at the Obs. A red tagger said yesterday that model take virga into consideration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If you want to visualize what people were talking about at the end of the last thread, here's the qpf from the last 3 Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 https://mping.ou.edu/display/ flurry mPing reports in Concord, near Charlotte. Sure would like to see more of this over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Still a ways out and it is the HRRR but worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Current IR shows the gap between cloudbands well NW of were the GFS simmulated it. GFS had it Paralleling the the Carolina coast. Goes R shows its shooting NW fast. Proobably a good sign. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=ir&runtime=2018010312&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-southeast-14-48-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I think they will be. Not sure about sustained to 35 but I think the coast can get string together frequent enough gusts. LWX used to put out blizzard verification releases. I haven't seen one since 2010 here. Taunton did in more recent seasons. It seems that if the gusts are above 35 mph on the hourly reports, it's good enough for the forecast offices. They're not requiring sustained 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: LWX used to put out blizzard verification releases. I haven't seen one since 2010 here. Taunton did in more recent seasons. It seems that if the gusts are above 35 mph on the hourly reports, it's good enough for the forecast offices. They're not requiring sustained 35 mph. LWX did one for 2016 where IAD verified the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Pity Winter Wx Advisory out for I-95: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=17961973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Still a ways out and it is the HRRR but worth a look. HRRR nailed the 16 blizzard, but since, it has been... rather unreliable. I am super hopeful for that scenario. Love the look of that band, right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX did one for 2016 where IAD verified the blizzard. Are you sure it wasn't for DCA? Looking at IAD obs-- there were not 3 consecutive hours of high enough wind gusts. DCA did meet criteria for 3 consecutive on-the-hour observations in a row (2:52 pm, 3:52 pm, 4:52 pm), which Capital Weather Gang pointed out. But that's really two hours, not three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 First virga returns showing up on klwx radar down by RIC. The flag has dropped and the game is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Allan Huffman is revising his forecast for central/southern SC upwards...now thinks 6"+ for the Charleston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 YUCK! From LWX: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-King George- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland and central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of around one inch are expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north central and northern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 St. Marys-Calvert- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. * URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Frederick MD-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun- 207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch are expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD. In Virginia, Southern Fauquier and Eastern Loudoun. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... MDZ008-012-040530- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T2200Z/ Cecil-Kent MD- Including the cities of Elkton and Chestertown 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Cecil and Kent MD counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday. * URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... MDZ015-019-020-040530- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T2200Z/ Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Including the cities of Centreville, Easton, and Denton 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Queen Annes, Talbot and Caroline counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 900 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Westmoreland-Richmond-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Eastern Hanover- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Lawrenceville, Petersburg, Hopewell, Mechanicsville, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Sandston, Aylett, King William, West Point, King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 900 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts east of Interstate 95. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I don't care what the models say, the radar returns are moving nicely NW here. I know all about lack of ground obs, but the models have sim/rad return products and they don't show such a NW move. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at Here's the NAM 3K for 2PM.....the BEST model for snowfall and it shows nothing like this. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=0 Here's the NAM for 2pm https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=218 even when you click ahead one hour to 3pm, it's still not like reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We haven't yet mentioned the DWD-ICON (German) model, probably because it has been dry as a bone for the cities. But the 12z run today for the first time brought measurable precip (about 0.05" qpf) to DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Moderate to heavy snow down in Charleston right now: http://webcams.cofc.edu/webcam3/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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