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January 3-4 Noreaster Obs


ChescoWx

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I would never use that method...way too many discrepancies as way too many variable with w.e. equations to make it work well...PHL airport did use that for a while and abandoned it due to it's inaccuracy. Although with this storm I understand your thinking but really the best way is to find the snow depth on a day like today is to find the most level spot on your property and take 10 sticks across a few hundred feet and average them.

Just did exactly as you suggested and ended with an avg of 4.9". However there was still snow on the ground from the last storm so while I agree with what you suggested and the reasoning behind, the reason I chose the le for today was both the wind/drifting and the prior snowpack which i knew would skew the measurement. I could have gone out last night and taken avg measurements using your method and subtracted from todays total but that is probably even less accurate. In any event the 4.3" isnt far off from some of the official obs locally and reports here on the forum locally.  

 

Looks like officially a general 2-5" over majority of SE PA. PHL looks like officially 4" unless they do a late update. Obviously some lollis will surface and some spots slightly lower.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

4.3" here using melted liquid method from rain gauge and ratio chart based on approx air temps. Not 100% accurate but melted down had .27" le with air temp 20-22F during event = ~4.3" snowfall. Flurries periodically now but likely wont add to the totals.  Another overperformer.

That ignores dendrite quality, which can make for significant differences.  Back in Dec. 2003 we had 2 very similar snowstorms on 6-7 and 15.  They had 1.63" and 1.53" LE respectively (cores taken from storm-average depth areas), each came with temps hovering +/- 20, the 6-7 event had winds gusting high 30s, the 15th mid 20s.  Despite the stronger flake-fracturing winds, the 6-7 snow was 24" for a 14.7-to-1 ratio, the 5th 13.0" for 8.5-to-1.  The only reason I can think of for the ratio difference is dendrite formation. 

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3 hours ago, Bliz299 said:

As of 1pm 9.6" on ground. Really tough measurement. Still have a light fall but with plenty of blowing snow. Radar says we're done very shortly. Maybe we'll get another one (or two?) this winter.

Hey Wayne

Not too shabby being at climo on Jan 4. I think we get a good period in Feb. more STJ. Thanks for your reports  

Jeff

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56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just did exactly as you suggested and ended with an avg of 4.9". However there was still snow on the ground from the last storm so while I agree with what you suggested and the reasoning behind, the reason I chose the le for today was both the wind/drifting and the prior snowpack which i knew would skew the measurement. I could have gone out last night and taken avg measurements using your method and subtracted from todays total but that is probably even less accurate. In any event the 4.3" isnt far off from some of the official obs locally and reports here on the forum locally.  

 

Looks like officially a general 2-5" over majority of SE PA. PHL looks like officially 4" unless they do a late update. Obviously some lollis will surface and some spots slightly lower.

Hey Steve, totally understand your rationale and am not questioning...we all just need to understand it is not an exact science when it comes to snowfall measurement. The NWS suggests the method I use not using melted...due to my earlier comments. It is not exact and depending on your station's topography can be problematic for sure...I am kind of lucky in that I am tucked between hills with higher elevations of 750 to 900ft ASL all around me so my wind speeds are always muted....so my method is usually not too far off the mark of surrounding obs.

Paul

 

 

 

 

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Wish I had a final number, but had to work, so couldn't keep up with measurements.  And there's no way now with the drifting.  It's either 2 inches or 2 feet at this point.  

Looks like a 6 or 7 inch storm, though.  It's been a hell of a great start to this winter.  

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Have no idea how much fell for me this storm.  I shoveled spots either 1/2" or 6"+.  Best guess from the most common depth shoveling would have been 3-3.5", but it appears some of you west of me had more than that, so who knows.

Good indication of how this storm went.  Front porch steps under cover - 4" of snow.  Car in driveway - clean.

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Finished with around 5" (SE Montco).  +/- half an inch.

Certainly a decent little hit, but you can't help wishing it took a more westward volley.  The best bands never made it this far inland.  Small flakes almost the entire time hurt the end totals, I think.  There was a period where it snowed for about 6+ hours with only 0.5" to 1" accumulation.  I guess, depending which model you chose to follow, this could be considered a success locally.  This may end up being the last of the snow until February if you believe current long-term prospects.

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Final total here is 4.6", although like others have said it's got to have some kind of margin of error given the wind. As cold as it is, it was fairly compressed due to the fractured dendrites and wind. 14.9" for the season so far. This being the 5th measurable snow event here really makes the winter enjoyable. Last winter seemed long, probably due to the extended periods of drab and brown landscape. And the snow pile is happy :o...

Snowpile-Jan-4-18.jpg

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17 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Finished with around 5" (SE Montco).  +/- half an inch.

Certainly a decent little hit, but you can't help wishing it took a more westward volley.  The best bands never made it this far inland.  Small flakes almost the entire time hurt the end totals, I think.  There was a period where it snowed for about 6+ hours with only 0.5" to 1" accumulation.  I guess, depending which model you chose to follow, this could be considered a success locally.  This may end up being the last of the snow until February if you believe current long-term prospects.

Nah, I don't believe that (that's with 25% lol). Being the weather, you can never be sure, but this winter has had a theme of pleasant surprises.....and maybe there will be some persistence with that? :lmao:

 

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29 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Final total here is 4.6", although like others have said it's got to have some kind of margin of error given the wind. As cold as it is, it was fairly compressed due to the fractured dendrites and wind. 14.9" for the season so far. This being the 5th measurable snow event here really makes the winter enjoyable. Last winter seemed long, probably due to the extended periods of drab and brown landscape. And the snow pile is happy :o...

Snowpile-Jan-4-18.jpg

Did you ever think about going super nutty and shoveling the lawn to make your pile larger?

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5.1" final here. snow drifts up to 12"+. great great storm. maybe the best ever for the amount of snow we got. my new neighbor probably think I'm nuts. I was making my own kamu pile at the end of my walkway and he asked why I was doing that, since it was harder than just shoveling it. when i responded "so I can keep my snowpack longer" his look to me was like I had said "so I can hide dead bodies under it." :lol:

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2 hours ago, Redmorninglight said:

Hey Wayne

Not too shabby being at climo on Jan 4. I think we get a good period in Feb. more STJ. Thanks for your reports  

Jeff

Thank you. Glad to report whenever I can. Final total 9.8". Yes, being at climo this early, especially when not expected, is cool indeed. However, just gets me/us pumped for more. We shall see.

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2 hours ago, shemATC said:

Have no idea how much fell for me this storm.  I shoveled spots either 1/2" or 6"+.  Best guess from the most common depth shoveling would have been 3-3.5", but it appears some of you west of me had more than that, so who knows.

Good indication of how this storm went.  Front porch steps under cover - 4" of snow.  Car in driveway - clean.

lol...same here! Between the powdery nature of the snow and the winds, you wouldn't know it snowed just by looking at the car.

Very difficult to get an accurate measurement, 4" looks to be a good average. I was hoping for at least 2", so I'm more than satisfied. On to Monday ...

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Been doing clean up for 4 hours. Not finished yet have about 80% complete.

Took a bunch of measurements around the property. Low of 17 and high of 20”. Drifts to 3-4 feet.

Roads are ok. County and state best conditions. Locals did a good job too but have loads of work ahead.

One issue with driving is when you come to an area where the winds are pushing snow across the road. You go from clear road to 6-12 inches quickly and white out conditions make visibility difficult. Sucks on long stretches.

Be safe and stay warm! The cold is a coming.

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21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Did you ever think about going super nutty and shoveling the lawn to make your pile larger?

Lol, yes, but the snow looks nice on the lawn so....and there are only so many hours in a day. I've had other ideas too - getting a machine like a Bobcat and moving much snow from a bigger event into a huge pile (with the added bonus of not being exhausted), but they're a little pricey for recreational use, and the idea of renting one for a day and trying to time that with a significant snow event in advance is not realistic. How about getting a snow making machine and making a huge pile on that hill? This winter would be perfect. The weather dependent status quo works too, lots of snow means nice snow pile, especially with numerous events. Normally it all melts by early April anyway, and by then I'm ready for spring. But yeah, we have fun thinking about stuff like this!

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11 minutes ago, ME_wannabe said:

10" I'd say on the low end. Maybe 1ft but i don't get hung up on it. It was an over-performer though for real. Not nearly as much wind as forecast but I'm deep in the woods. Pup was happy but new Bolt under snow cover for a bit.

 

20180104_155153_resized.jpg

20180104_155257_resized (2).jpg

Nice - looks like a good night for a fire in the fireplace!

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

5.1" final here. snow drifts up to 12"+. great great storm. maybe the best ever for the amount of snow we got. my new neighbor probably think I'm nuts. I was making my own kamu pile at the end of my walkway and he asked why I was doing that, since it was harder than just shoveling it. when i responded "so I can keep my snowpack longer" his look to me was like I had said "so I can hide dead bodies under it." :lol:

That's funny - "It does not compute!". What else could you say? Good job by the way!  I have a similar story from last weekend - we were pushing the 2" of fluff we received about two hundred feet down the driveway to the snow pile because it was light and we decided to optimize it. One of our neighbors walked over to give us a holiday bread (which was appreciated) and said "You know, I just push mine off to the side - it's much easier". Okay, thanks!

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Was put up in hotel again last night for work in Ewing so I have yet to go home back in Monmouth County. Only had what looks like around 4 or 5 inches here in Ewing. Wife and kids couldn't get a good measurement for me back home due to the wind so I'll rely on the NWS official reports of between 10-14 inches by me.  Not sure I trust my wife's measurement here. These are the only three picks that were sent to me from Marlboro, Monmouth County.  I'm going home tonight so will be sure to take some shopping center snow pile pics. ha ha ha

2018-blizzard.jpg

2018-blizzard-part 2.jpg

2018-blizzard-part 3.jpg

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22 hours ago, ME_wannabe said:

10" I'd say on the low end. Maybe 1ft but i don't get hung up on it. It was an over-performer though for real. Not nearly as much wind as forecast but I'm deep in the woods. Pup was happy but new Bolt under snow cover for a bit.

 

20180104_155153_resized.jpg

20180104_155257_resized (2).jpg

I think your right. 10 is a little low. I would say 12 at least in Mays Landing. That is just an estimate but it was the biggest storm since Boxing Day 2010.

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