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January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

When Dendrite thinks something should be a blizzard it probably should be as the board observation/quality control expert.

I just want consistency and a concrete definition. The whole thing is too subjective for me and people take their blizzards seriously.

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So this was the only ob that officially kept BOS from blizzard criteria? This is despite the 1754z ob and 1833z ob having gusts over 31 knots. So we're talking like a 15 min period of wind criteria that falls short by 2mph...but the blizzard definition of frequency of wind is subjective..."frequent gusts" over 35mph doesn't tell you how long of a lull there can be. The visibility criteria is more objective. It has to be continuous. 

KBOS 041810Z 35022G29KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2906 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1810 PRESFR P0004 T10221028

 

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Stop stealing our blizzards!

My guess is that most of the public would feel it was a blizzard around Boston no matter what NWS classifies it as.

Although do most people only think of a blizzard as a 24” storm? Do they consider the wind?

Once you are convicted in the court of public opinion...

 

Also, Blizzard of 2018 is so much more marketable than "that really big storm in 2018 that was more intense than some of the other storms that winter".

 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

For any BOX mets that lurk, I’d like to add kudos for a great aggressive forecast. I still think the blizz criteria determination needs work though. Yesterday should’ve counted. You can’t subjectively take 1/4sm obs because ASOS low vis blows and then nit pick 5min wind obs where maybe a couple of obs fell a few mph short. This was hours of near 0SM vis with high impact winds. If this doesn’t count just toss the warning option to the curb then. Everything just becomes a WSW. 

Valid argument indeed.

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Best winter storm since Boxing Day imo, but I lived in central LI up through 2015. So many of you guys will likely have others...

 

I think this was the best significant snow/wind combination I've experienced in my life though. I'm 30, so many of you may have others that predate me...

 

 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So this was the only ob that officially kept BOS from blizzard criteria? This is despite the 1754z ob and 1833z ob having gusts over 31 knots. So we're talking like a 15 min period of wind criteria that falls short by 2mph...but the blizzard definition of frequency of wind is subjective..."frequent gusts" over 35mph doesn't tell you how long of a lull there can be. The visibility criteria is more objective. It has to be continuous. 

KBOS 041810Z 35022G29KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2906 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1810 PRESFR P0004 T10221028

 

A little birdie told me they use the 5min wind obs...so there were a few more than that mixed in.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=BOS

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well even though i wasn't overly impressed with yesterdays event personally for my house, as far as I am concerned it was a blizzard with the falling/blowing snow combo

even when the snow was light the vis with freezing fog and blowing snow was <1/4 mi

most blowing snow I have seen since boxing day debacle

 

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40 minutes ago, adk said:

Once you are convicted in the court of public opinion...

 

Also, Blizzard of 2018 is so much more marketable than "that really big storm in 2018 that was more intense than some of the other storms that winter".

 

And "marketable" is key.  Though bombogenesis is commonly in use by mets, and on here, I'd never heard the term "bomb cyclone" before Wednesday, though I've heard it many dozens of times since - the new ear toy for MSM.  4 years ago it was "polar vortex".

Finished with 13.0" here on 0.99" LE, with 11" coming noon-6 PM.  Visibility for those 6 hours ranged from 1/4 mile down to under 1/16 (at 4 PM, under The Band), but winds did not approach blizzard criterion until after the snowfall was about done, peak gusts were right around that 35 mph.  Odd to get 13" on 1/4, as we had the same exact amount on 1/4/2003 (and only got 4.5" more for the month.)  The only other January date with more than 8.0" since 1999 is the 27th, 16.0" from the 2015 blizzard, one of only 4 events here that I consider to have met the full blizz criteria.  (Others are 12/6-7/03, 12/21-22/08, 3/14/17.)

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6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I live at exit 3 off of rt3, my roommate plows at Colony Place at exit 7...maybe that is 6mi N of my house at the most. They changed to a heavy wet snow and picked up 6 or 7 inches.

I literally just missed out on this storm...crazy how that works

Ouch. I thought you'd do a little better..that r/s line was stubborn.

Areas to my north and to my west about 10-15 miles had 2-3x more than me. 

 

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little birdie told me they use the 5min wind obs...so there were a few more than that mixed in.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=BOS

Interesting...that doesn't seem consistent with previous criteria when we look back on other storms where blizzard criteria was claimed (you already mentioned this). I'm fine with using 5 min wind obs, but like you, I want consistency.

 

It looks like the 5 min wind obs is also what eliminated ORH from blizzard criteria....because all these METARs (more than 3 consecutive hours worth) satisfied the criteria:

 

KORH 041954Z 33018G33KT 1/4SM R11/1400V1600FT SN FZFG VV005 M04/M06 A2895 RMK AO2 PK WND 34037/1940 SLP816 P0007 T10391056 $
KORH 041907Z 35023G31KT 1/4SM R11/0800V1200FT SN FZFG VV004 M03/M05 A2899 RMK AO2 PK WND 35032/1855 P0003 T10331050 $
KORH 041854Z 35022G33KT 1/4SM R11/1200V1400FT SN FZFG VV006 M03/M05 A2900 RMK AO2 PK WND 34035/1821 PRESFR SLP832 P0003 T10331050 $
KORH 041847Z 35022G34KT 1/4SM R11/1200V2000FT SN FZFG VV007 M03/M05 A2901 RMK AO2 PK WND 34035/1821 PRESFR P0003 T10331050 $
KORH 041826Z 35022G35KT 1/4SM R11/2000V2600FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2904 RMK AO2 PK WND 34035/1821 PRESFR P0003 T10331056 $
KORH 041754Z 36022G41KT 1/4SM R11/1200V2000FT SN FZFG VV006 M04/M06 A2908 RMK AO2 PK WND 01041/1747 SLP861 P0005 60023 T10391056 11039 21083 56065 $
KORH 041719Z 36024G39KT 1/4SM R11/1400V2000FT SN FZFG VV007 M04/M06 A2913 RMK AO2 PK WND 36039/1717 PRESFR P0001 T10391061
KORH 041654Z 36019G31KT 1/4SM R11/2000V2800FT SN FZFG VV007 M04/M07 A2918 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/1609 SNB13 SLP894 P0006 T10441067
KORH 041650Z 01019G31KT 1/4SM R11/2000V2800FT SN FZFG VV007 M04/M07 A2918 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/1609 SNB13 PRESFR P0006
KORH 041630Z 01019G31KT 1/4SM R11/1400V2000FT SN FZFG VV005 M05/M07 A2922 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/1609 SNB13 P0004 T10501067
KORH 041618Z 01023G39KT M1/4SM R11/1000V1400FT SN FZFG VV004 M05/M07 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/1609 SNB13 P0000 T10501072

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We got another inch overnight to end with 4.5 inches.  I guess it turns out that it is not just my winter and the lot of you are not just living in it.  I am not crushed about it as the shoveling was bad enough this morning.  It was like shoveling sand.

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Good morning everybody.  One hell of a storm yeasterday.  Sucks that something like this storm fell barely short of a true Blizzard based on wind sustainability but that is splitting hairs.  Double digit snows in the heart of our viewing area (Boston and Surrounding Burbs), coastal flodding.  I guess the only real thing missing was if the storm had traveled just a little slower.  May have added 4-6" more but who the hell knows.  Enjoy it, it's the only weather you've got!

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Want a laugh...  Boston PNS Snowfall report has a 32.4" amount for Haverill, MA and Holliston.  Stick slanting? Drift? Wipping the board every hour?  No, it may be an error in which it they really have meant 12.4", that makes more sense.  I think that's what they meant.:wacko:

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