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January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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Recent SLP 960 mb at buoy 44011 with center estimated 50 nw of them. Also 31' waves. This one does not record winds. To the north Mount Desert Rock has 51 knots north gusting to 55 knots. From recent satellite obs, northeast trend with slight NNE jog and probable track now into Bay of Fundy with landfall near St John NB tonight. 

goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs was last place as usual 

Euro 2nd to last. Big struggle 

GGEM decent 

Ukie about like Euro 

Reggie was horrendous 

Nam great

Deep Thunder model was very good 

 

RPM was decent and as mentioned, of the global NAVGEM did well.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Great job by Ray on this

I had briefly written it off.  I was still surprised by the positive bust

4 day weekend for my house

Agree!  The effort Ray have put in have borne fruit.  He really had the bands west of ORH nailed down and also to Kevin and west.  And Kevin said warnings west of the river to NY State-warranted!  

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Are you blocked by anything that would lower your total?

I don't think so, this happened last March too with amounts so much higher so close by

I only observed one hour of really heavy snow in the late morning and another twenty minutes or so of it about 2 hours ago when that last area pivoted through

in between it was really showery, I expected central/western ct to be a few to several inches higher as well as nyc/li/ ema etc

there are lots of trees and the houses are fairly close together and the wind was insane so measuring very challenging but my friend was able to drive his saab right into the unshoveled driveway and the car is low and if there was a foot plus that never would have happened

when i was measuring i was coming up with 7-8 new and then we did get a good burst after so i could see up to 9 legit ...if you are right over the ct/ma border you are 2.5 mi from me as the crow flies

it did snow a long time today (5am-5pm) and i do not believe in 6 hour measurements etc unless a really long duration event so if there was an inch or so lost to compaction and wind fracturing maybe it was as much as 10??

i will tentatively keep it at 9 for now and from all the last minute computer forecast i saw it seems very meh to me, should have been a foot easy(hrrr,gfs,nam,etc etc plus all the expert analysis)......first thing this morning i would not have expected more than 6-10 but then everything just looked so incredible right into the first few hours of the event

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Calling it at 14" unless we get more, with possible range between 13.5-15" due to drifting issues.

January 2016 storm also had drifting issues and range of 13.5-15" so it's a tie between these two storms as my greatest single-storm snow total. 

However, today's the deepest snow I ever seen at 18-20" range in level areas with drifts as high as 3 feet.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, buddy.

I'll analysis what went right and what went wrong in the a post the next day of two...gonna rest tonight. 

Seriously you nailed this area. I was skeptical of the 12''+ forecasts but they were dead on. 

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21 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I'm going with 14.3" so far. My new depth has already compacted a little. Still some -SN

It's somewhere between 14'' and 15'' in reality because it did pick up again a little bit after I thought it was done but there's no way I'm going to be able to accurately measure another couple tenths.

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Last thoughts signing off... (storm's not over... we probably continue 1/2-1" / hr until 8pm at least inside 495 with these dissipating bands)

Wow what an amazing storm! Sunday there was talk of maybe a few inches... and this ramped up into a 12-18" widespread blizzard. Awesome.

So much I don't understand about the mechanics. Since when do we get a miller A originating in the Bahamas that stacks and occludes off NC/VA and yet continues to deepen to 950s and jackpots SNE? Anomalous warm core dynamics that I still don't understand completely and file away as astonishing rare feats like Sandy.

Kudos to NWS with the forecast (and awesome AFDs)... I was nervous about their widespread 12-18 but that was spot on.

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1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

What did KBOS get?

Won’t know till between 7-8pm.  Still some adding on but doubt more than a few tenths after the 7pm measurement.  There was a prelim around 3 of 10.2 with a lot more snow thereafter so my guess is it will be 13-14.

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18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Great job by Ray on this

I had briefly written it off.  I was still surprised by the positive bust

4 day weekend for my house

Yeah Ray you did really well with this. Aside from calling this a while ago, you were bullish and correct when usually reliable models (RGEM!) were out to lunch.

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