pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Superstorm said: Harrisburg was 20.6 officially in ‘93. The wind and thunder and lightning were incredible. . The drifts with 93 were the best. I got stuck at my parents For 2 days. They lived out in the country (behind green dragon fir you locals) and front end loader and plow didn’t come till day 2. Easily 8-10’ drifts in spots. Abandoned car buried in middle of road. Just awesome from that perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The Blizzard of 93 was the greatest storm to me due to the impacts across the entire eastern part of the country. Locally, the winds & drifts, along with nearly 2 feet of snow made this the best storm for me. It is also the storm that caused my fascination with the weather to grow immensely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The 0z & now the 6z GFS continued to push the Saturday storm further south & east. The 0z GFS brought the low almost through the LSV, which put State College & Williamsport in the 4-8 inch snow zone, & it even had around 4 inches near Selinsgrove. The 6z GFS now brings the low through the Philadelphia area on Saturday am. The The Williamsport & State College area still get 4-8, but the 1 inch line pushed to almost Harrisburg. Northern Dauphin & most of Perry county are now in the 2-3 inch of snow range per this model run. If this shift continues, all of CTP,including the LSV,could cash in with this one. It would also be nice if the other models would join the GFS with this track trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Today's going to be the first day to get above freezing in two straight weeks, which the 14 days below 32 will go down as the next-to-longest such streak in MDT history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z & now the 6z GFS continued to push the Saturday storm further south & east. The 0z GFS brought the low almost through the LSV, which put State College & Williamsport in the 4-8 inch snow zone, & it even had around 4 inches near Selinsgrove. The 6z GFS now brings the low through the Philadelphia area on Saturday am. The The Williamsport & State College area still get 4-8, but the 1 inch line pushed to almost Harrisburg. Northern Dauphin & most of Perry county are now in the 2-3 inch of snow range per this model run. If this shift continues, all of CTP,including the LSV,could cash in with this one. It would also be nice if the other models would join the GFS with this track trend. Boy I'm telling ya, I am hugging the GFS for all its worth. Ens runs are still slightly SE of Op so it holds some weight to your points above. Would be nice to score in the middle of the "end of winter" as many in the MA forum were touting over the weekend....and some still are. This winter is so much better than the last 2 and yet i feel as though many have checked out at every poor model run and follow them blindly off cliffs. D@mn computers are ruining us IMO. It makes me think of the "good ol' days" of when forecasters had to use instinct and pattern recognition, and not a 6hr increment of tons of data to parse through. Or maybe thats what all the smart guys ARE doing, and I'm just too dumb to know better.... Regardless, 2m air temps show moderation from the freezer, but normalish, and as were entering peak climo for snow....I'm more than fine with it. we CANT score on every one. Not loving the pattern as depicted, but it beats a raging furnace (which still looms in the minds of some), and shows much more in the way for appreciable events. This winter has shown me/us to not look on past 10 days, and until something proves otherwise, i'm sticking with it. Actually looks like a couple chances in the next 10 days (and verbatim 6z GFS shows a similar setup to this weekend is being shown for next weekend as well.) Point is, there will be lots of weather to talk about....wet or white (hopes for latter...of course). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z guidance today seemed to have went the other way today a bit, with a general consensus on a surface low track right through PA and attending 850 and 700mb lows going just west of the state. The result is a significant snow swath through the Ohio Valley into the Lower Lakes and a more rainy scenario for most of C-PA save for maybe some ice northern tier and some upslope snow in the mountains after the low passes. 8 hours ago, pasnownut said: Boy I'm telling ya, I am hugging the GFS for all its worth. Ens runs are still slightly SE of Op so it holds some weight to your points above. Would be nice to score in the middle of the "end of winter" as many in the MA forum were touting over the weekend....and some still are. This winter is so much better than the last 2 and yet i feel as though many have checked out at every poor model run and follow them blindly off cliffs. D@mn computers are ruining us IMO. It makes me think of the "good ol' days" of when forecasters had to use instinct and pattern recognition, and not a 6hr increment of tons of data to parse through. Or maybe thats what all the smart guys ARE doing, and I'm just too dumb to know better.... Regardless, 2m air temps show moderation from the freezer, but normalish, and as were entering peak climo for snow....I'm more than fine with it. we CANT score on every one. Not loving the pattern as depicted, but it beats a raging furnace (which still looms in the minds of some), and shows much more in the way for appreciable events. This winter has shown me/us to not look on past 10 days, and until something proves otherwise, i'm sticking with it. Actually looks like a couple chances in the next 10 days (and verbatim 6z GFS shows a similar setup to this weekend is being shown for next weekend as well.) Point is, there will be lots of weather to talk about....wet or white (hopes for latter...of course). Nut We have the luxury of it only being January 9th and a ton of winter plus our best bigger snow climo ahead of us. It has in fact been a completely different opening month or so to meteorological winter than the last two winters, especially from a standpoint of cold air with most of the region seeing the coldest opening week of a new year on record. It's all a matter of perspective.. this winter will be considered better of course by most if the goods get delivered. From what I've seen out of this winter so far and what it looks like at least in the near future.. I'm not so much concerned about prolonged torches as I am about it simply being dry. This upcoming event will likely be the heaviest precip event we've seen in awhile regardless of p-type, so hopefully it is the sign of more active times ahead storm wise. We had a lot of very warm spells last winter, but I also had at least three 6+ events personally and most of us got rocked by that mid-March storm.. and 2015-2016 speaks for itself with most of it stupid warm but the LSV's biggest snowstorm ever getting snuck in there in January. Both had pretty unique ways of getting seasonal to above average seasonal snowfall to parts of the region, so we'll see if we can at least get an average snowfall with it seeming to be a much colder winter this year so far. Right now in the early going this winter to me has been reminiscent of the 99-00 winter.. a nina winter that had a lot of cold but ultimately was very dry. UNV had 19.8" that winter.. a number on par with 11-12 and 15-16 but less than other famous non-winters such as 94-95 and 01-02. Harrisburg and Williamsport had more snow than UNV that winter (22.5" and 23.1" respectively), which was aided by the Jan 25, 2000 "surprise" storm which got into the LSV but not the central counties. Not saying this winter is going to turn out like that one, but the cold/dry scenario is on my mind. There's plenty of time left to disprove that worry of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 12z guidance today seemed to have went the other way today a bit, with a general consensus on a surface low track right through PA and attending 850 and 700mb lows going just west of the state. The result is a significant snow swath through the Ohio Valley into the Lower Lakes and a more rainy scenario for most of C-PA save for maybe some ice northern tier and some upslope snow in the mountains after the low passes. We have the luxury of it only being January 9th and a ton of winter plus our best bigger snow climo ahead of us. It has in fact been a completely different opening month or so to meteorological winter than the last two winters, especially from a standpoint of cold air with most of the region seeing the coldest opening week of a new year on record. It's all a matter of perspective.. this winter will be considered better of course by most if the goods get delivered. From what I've seen out of this winter so far and what it looks like at least in the near future.. I'm not so much concerned about prolonged torches as I am about it simply being dry. This upcoming event will likely be the heaviest precip event we've seen in awhile regardless of p-type, so hopefully it is the sign of more active times ahead storm wise. We had a lot of very warm spells last winter, but I also had at least three 6+ events personally and most of us got rocked by that mid-March storm.. and 2015-2016 speaks for itself with most of it stupid warm but the LSV's biggest snowstorm ever getting snuck in there in January. Both had pretty unique ways of getting seasonal to above average seasonal snowfall to parts of the region, so we'll see if we can at least get an average snowfall with it seeming to be a much colder winter this year so far. Right now in the early going this winter to me has been reminiscent of the 99-00 winter.. a nina winter that had a lot of cold but ultimately was very dry. UNV had 19.8" that winter.. a number on par with 11-12 and 15-16 but less than other famous non-winters such as 94-95 and 01-02. Harrisburg and Williamsport had more snow than UNV that winter (22.5" and 23.1" respectively), which was aided by the Jan 25, 2000 "surprise" storm which got into the LSV but not the central counties. Not saying this winter is going to turn out like that one, but the cold/dry scenario is on my mind. There's plenty of time left to disprove that worry of mine. yeah saw both 12 and 18's and it did step the wrong way. CMC trended east though.....lol subtle shifts still to be had, but it just looks like the cold is going to be more backended than out front, so this one may be in trouble. In truth I wasn't really sure how we saw the runs of yesterday with big snow totals in the NW counties w/ no H in the NE to help cool this puppy down, but who knows. The cold is close enough so maybe still enough time for some parts of NW Pa to get a into some action. On the bright side, and as you stated, winter is far from over, and a look at the long range, shows a few things wanting to break right after we relax for a bit. Even during the next 10 days, there are a couple of chances to ease the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I’m looking forward to the rain actually to wash the salt and dirt away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Overnight 0z and now 6z guidance has yielded some interesting developments with our end of the week system. They have come back southeastward some with the storm track, placing western and northern Penn back under the gun for a more substantial snow and/or ice threat, especially via the 0z Euro and NAM. The Euro was snowier and the NAM icier. 6z NAM goes even further getting all of central PA and a big chunk of the LSV into a moderate to significant ice threat. This is going to be an interesting setup as there is a major thermal gradient being progged with the cold air behind the frontal boundary being pretty notable. NAM really gets low level cold bleeding underneath with easily sub 0ºC 925mb temps and surface temps while maintaining warm 850mb air with the 850 low lagging in SW PA. The result is a mess like this: Those were the worst two frames, ice was already ongoing hours 69 and 72 in Western PA. The Euro had the 925 low tucked in a bit more towards the 850 low, so the low level cold didn't appear to be as wide as the 6z NAM portrayal, but there is still likely a swath of pretty good ice in there somewhere in the central counties and significant snows in western PA. The rest of today's model suite (12,18,0z) I think will be starting to hone in on where in PA (if anywhere) this wintry threat ultimately resides. There's been some pretty wild swings with this in the last couple days...and the GFS and Canadian while improved some still confine the biggest wintry issues to far NW PA. This winter pattern has liked progression, so I can see this trending a bit more to the southeast. But this storm could also wind up more and be back west again. I still continue to think west and north central PA are most under the gun with an eye kept on the central counties and perhaps the LSV. The LSV is still a bit of a hard sell, even if the surface low gets shoved southeast enough to cut over say, southeast PA.. the attending 850 and 700 lows are going to be to the west/southwest of the surface low. Ice would be the primary threat there if the new 6z NAM's penetration of low level cold across PA (as well as the surface low getting pretty much all the way under PA) is to believed...but otherwise the dry slot of the system as well as lagging temperature drops could minimize the potential for issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Trends keep moving things eastward.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 45 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Trends keep moving things eastward. . If the cold only got here 24 hours earlier .... we'd all have a 6+" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: Trends keep moving things eastward. . this has been a trend weve seen with most storms this season, so that is why I was thinking more progressive (SE solutions) had a chance. The storm hasnt bounced around much (well the NAM has looked like a yoyo as it seems unsure as to which side of the mountain to place the low...lol). That said, it will be interesting to see what the next few model runs do for this storm. I'll be in north central pa, so I'm rooting for the SE tick, so that we all can share in some fun. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: this has been a trend weve seen with most storms this season, so that is why I was thinking more progressive (SE solutions) had a chance. The storm hasnt bounced around much (well the NAM has looked like a yoyo as it seems unsure as to which side of the mountain to place the low...lol). That said, it will be interesting to see what the next few model runs do for this storm. I'll be in north central pa, so I'm rooting for the SE tick, so that we all can share in some fun. Nut All models trended southeast today & bring the cold air in to the LSV before precip shuts off on Saturday. The temperature drop early Saturday could be dramatic. It could be a rain to ice to snow scenario. If the east trend continues, things could get even more interesting in terms of winter weather on Saturday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Dang this storm is such a tease. Juicy system with an almost perfect low track but still can't be confident in much if any accumulation consindering the warmth ahead of the storm and the classic dryslot incoming once the temps do start to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 So naturally the Euro has to come in and drop 8-10" on all of Centre county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, skiier04 said: So naturally the Euro has to come in and drop 8-10" on all of Centre county It also blew that clipper slated for the middle of next week up into a full blown coastal and backed it right into central PA. As for this event, I've seen enough from models tonight to think that CTP will be warranted in making a pretty good extension to their watch area, probably the central counties from I-80 corridor northward but maybe even the rest of the I-99 corridor counties too given the potential for mixed precip before snows. Trends have been good overall the last 24 hours for seeing a more noteworthy winter event in the central counties, and possibly a mixier scenario for the LSV too. We now have a pretty good consensus of a low tracking under PA and then coming up from the VA piedmont through far SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: It also blew that clipper slated for the middle of next week up into a full blown coastal and backed it right into central PA. As for this event, I've seen enough from models tonight to think that CTP will be warranted in making a pretty good extension to their watch area, probably the central counties from I-80 corridor northward but maybe even the rest of the I-99 corridor counties too given the potential for mixed precip before snows. Trends have been good overall the last 24 hours for seeing a more noteworthy winter event in the central counties, and possibly a mixier scenario for the LSV too. We now have a pretty good consensus of a low tracking under PA and then coming up from the VA piedmont through far SE PA. 6z's coming in rather consistent, and while limits of NAM's are being stretched, LP placement and precip fields within the "nest" are looking quite similar to globals. I'm not blowing any horns yet, but I've been feeling this one for a couple days. Mag, just saw Euro off TT and yeah, we'd all take what it is showing for next Thursday. so....since this was to be our warmup.....i guess i'll take it :). (does not spike football...yet) verbatim, it would'nt stick around long as modeled, but hey, I'm not looking past 8-10 days for the rest of winter. I'll go blindly and hope for more surprises. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: 6z's coming in rather consistent, and while limits of NAM's are being stretched, LP placement and precip fields within the "nest" are looking quite similar to globals. I'm not blowing any horns yet, but I've been feeling this one for a couple days. Mag, just saw Euro off TT and yeah, we'd all take what it is showing for next Thursday. so....since this was to be our warmup.....i guess i'll take it :). (does not spike football...yet) verbatim, it would'nt stick around long as modeled, but hey, I'm not looking past 8-10 days for the rest of winter. I'll go blindly and hope for more surprises. Nut Euro drops 2" SE up to 18" NW across Lanco next week. Not much of a gradient there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 27 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Euro drops 2" SE up to 18" NW across Lanco next week. Not much of a gradient there? Wow. Can’t see that on freebies. Ok...I’m in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The LSV guys are missing out of this, but I'm really rooting for it to clobber our friends in the N/W tier of the region. We'll probably see a few mood flakes and sleet down this way, if any actually accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6Z Nam gives me 0.3" of ZR (WSW-worthy) ending with a coating of snow. I think the freezing rain potential down this way is looking pretty significant. Still more runs left for a tiny SE adjustment with more frozen and less freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Oz Euro gave me 18" of snow next week, 12z gives me about 1". The King needs to be moved to the Waffle House. In other news...59 degrees here now. Feels like...well, it feels about 75 degrees warmer than just several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: Oz Euro gave me 18" of snow next week, 12z gives me about 1". The King needs to be moved to the Waffle House. In other news...59 degrees here now. Feels like...well, it feels about 75 degrees warmer than just several days ago. The Euro is worth completely ignoring past, say, 84 hours now. It's horrifically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Lol...the 18z NAM destroys you state college folks with like a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 CTP expanded watches some...adding the Laurels and the rest of the north central counties. They even added Columbia and Schuyllkill County too, for up to 4 inches of snow/sleet and ice accums up to 0.2". Not really the watch alignment I envisioned for this event given potential track/evolution of this storm. Getting watches all the way down to Voyager could be attainable with especially Euro/EPS guidance.. which has quietly become the more southeastern envelope of the guidance making the low more of a coastal runner. But if that's the guidance they're weighing towards, there should be a lot more of the central counties in the watch. A lot of other model guidance takes the low into southeastern PA (GFS, NAM, RGEM).. which could slot a lot of the LSV from getting a lot of wintry precip and make for the icy transition zone in the central counties. I really didn't see a lot to support a watch in that particular region personally. Advisory level yea, and most of the region probably will end up in an advisory for some kind of wintry mix scenario when we get into the short/near term. Def a tough forecast, I've read the last two mornings AFD's from CTP on the storm and the forecaster is leery of how the precip is going to transition from rain-ice-snow, and whether there would be as much ice as modeled and etc. I could certainly get on board with that thinking but this particular system has significant cold air pressing underneath.. which I guess in effect may minimize the ZR threat and make more sleet before turning to snow. But either way there's more of a threat of a freeze-up as the system is ongoing than there would usually be in this type of setup. And theres the actual snow threat too.. which could be at least a solid 4-8" or so where the deform hangs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It certainly is a strange orientation for the watches, unless CTP is strictly going by terrain. Schuylkill County is considerably higher in elevation that most of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The 0z NAM puts .6!!!!, zr for Harrisburg it appears. Biiiig ice storm in the center part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The 0z NAM puts .6!!!!, zr for Harrisburg it appears. Biiiig ice storm in the center part of the region. This storm is weird. Where can I find the thermal profiles for the NAM?When is the last time we experienced ice in a setup remotely similar to this?. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'd love to know where the models are coming up with their numbers for the ice. The 06z GFS is putting out an apocalyptic 1.26" of ice for Hazleton by late morning tomorrow. Not that I believe for one minute that it would verify, but like the NAM numbers, which increased somewhat on the 06z, any region who picked up that much ice would be paralyzed for weeks... Current numbers are 60 degrees here and 0.59" in the rain gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 There will certainly be ice with this setup, but the wedge of cold being advected into the system will be pretty good and a deep enough layer should keep a fair amount of this precip in the form of sleet. I think areas down by the PA line out by Gettysburg and Chambersburg could see some solid ZR that will cause trouble in those parts. Central counties should be more on the sleet side after it starts as ZR, then change over to snow. Quite the mess up there incoming. I wish I could go chase it, but you know the whole working thing. I'll chase my rain south of the Mason Dixon. Boooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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