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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018


MAG5035

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Just now, canderson said:

Was the Jan 2016 storm more fun than the Jan 1996 storm? Hard for me to imagine anything beating the NAM special from 2016. 

Although those two back-to-back storms in February 2010 (that iirc shafted a lot of the northern part of this region) was awesome. 

The storm itself in '96 was better to me, however, there really wasn't tracking going on other than following forecasts on the Weather Channel.

January 2016 (and other big ones the past decade) were awesome for tracking on these weather boards, and of course the NAM spitting out like 40" totals and then nearly verifying during the storm you mentioned. 

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14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Was the Jan 2016 storm more fun than the Jan 1996 storm? Hard for me to imagine anything beating the NAM special from 2016. 

Although those two back-to-back storms in February 2010 (that iirc shafted a lot of the northern part of this region) was awesome. 

96 hands down for me. 

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17 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

96 hands down for me. 

Im going w/ 2016 cause i tainted in 96 for a bit.  You guys didnt.  

2016 was long duration loving and 99% snow IMBY.....and its ALL about the back yard ya know....

that said, I'd take either in a heartbeat.  Just no big warmup right after.  God that sucks 

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Im going w/ 2016 cause i tainted in 96 for a bit.  You guys didnt.  
2016 was long duration loving and 99% snow IMBY.....and its ALL about the back yard ya know....
that said, I'd take either in a heartbeat.  Just no big warmup right after.  God that sucks 

You had sleet in 96? I thought that was pure.

I do know Lancaster and Harrisburg tainted in 93.

Even with lower totals and taint, 93 is my favorite storm of all time.


.
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I have lived in cpa all my life and have been through all the big events . I try to stay outside and up as much as I can for all of them and never leave my/My fathers wood heated shed window until the end. 93 and 96 hands down.

The long duration of 96 and wind and thunder of 93 are the benchmarks for all other storms for me. 2016 is  third and a few good ones 08. I remember 83 but not much. I was born during the Presidents day storm of 79 my mother would have gave birth to me on a snowmobile Had I not been entangled in a umbilical cord. So That was pretty exciting although I dont remember that one .

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Temps here in the central counties right off the Allegheny front (AOO/UNV region) have erupted into the mid-upper 30s today as gusty winds have been able to mix down and likely a bit of downsloping as well, and thus I've actually had a bit of a net loss of snow today. 

The warmup this week still appears to be short lived, but the main question is going to be whether we go back into the freezer empty handed. Models are in relatively good agreement on the main wave of low pressure riding up with some difference in track but in general an unfavorable one for most of Central-PA attm. GFS runs the low right through the heart of the state, as does the Canadian it appears.. While the European has more of an Ohio Valley/Lower Lakes to St Lawrence River track. The GFS/Canadian take invites ice to creep into the northern part of the state. It would seem the GFS/Canadian build more high pressure to the north to maybe force the more PA track. I think western PA stands a much better chance to get involved but the Sus Valley is going to need a more significant shift in guidance or secondary development to the coast which I'm not seeing signs of such things in the models.. or at least on time for us if there is. GFS ensemble means had more of a coastal but a lot of spread in the mslp and 850 temp means. Still a good bit of lead time but right now this looks to potentially be more of a Ohio Valley/Lower Lakes winter storm.. a type we haven't seen in awhile. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Superstorm said:


You had sleet in 96? I thought that was pure.

I do know Lancaster and Harrisburg tainted in 93.

Even with lower totals and taint, 93 is my favorite storm of all time.

oops....wront blizzard.  yeah 93' we tainted.  96 was all snow.  now that i think more about it, 96'  i "only" got like 24-5 and with 16' I got 28.5.


yeah youre right.  wrong blizz.  lol

 

93' i def tainted and still got 28". 

96 was all snow but "only" like 25". 

16' was 28.5" of pure cold smoke powderbomb.  still 2016 for me.

I'm always welcome for challengers to knock 2016's crown though....:P

 

Edit- and while the sleet surely helped to compact and keep it around for a few days, pingers during a blizzard when you live where i do, is a scary thing, cause many events when I'm pingin....y'all to the N/W are still snowing, and I've lived through so many 1-2" snow to sleet/zr events down here in the piedmont, that it just gives me a nervous tick when I hear em.  Guess I need a therapist to fix that.....or a couple good snowstorms to heal my damaged soul.

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38 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Temps here in the central counties right off the Allegheny front (AOO/UNV region) have erupted into the mid-upper 30s today as gusty winds have been able to mix down and likely a bit of downsloping as well, and thus I've actually had a bit of a net loss of snow today. 

The warmup this week still appears to be short lived, but the main question is going to be whether we go back into the freezer empty handed. Models are in relatively good agreement on the main wave of low pressure riding up with some difference in track but in general an unfavorable one for most of Central-PA attm. GFS runs the low right through the heart of the state, as does the Canadian it appears.. While the European has more of an Ohio Valley/Lower Lakes to St Lawrence River track. The GFS/Canadian take invites ice to creep into the northern part of the state. It would seem the GFS/Canadian build more high pressure to the north to maybe force the more PA track. I think western PA stands a much better chance to get involved but the Sus Valley is going to need a more significant shift in guidance or secondary development to the coast which I'm not seeing signs of such things in the models.. or at least on time for us if there is. GFS ensemble means had more of a coastal but a lot of spread in the mslp and 850 temp means. Still a good bit of lead time but right now this looks to potentially be more of a Ohio Valley/Lower Lakes winter storm.. a type we haven't seen in awhile. 

 

 

yeah, this one is going to be a close call for CTP peeps.  18z, and the last two runs have eeked slightly SE w/ 700's and 850's, and now have the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the state into some fun this weekend.  Still time for some wiggle, but waiting for cold is never an easy thing...especially down in the LSV.  Low placement is improving, but if not, i think we in the LSV are watching from the bench.

AO and signs of NAO wanting to go neg have me hopeful for a return to winter fun, but -PNA will make it a zonal flow with bowling balls crossing the conus.  If thats the case we really need the -AO to show up or we could end up on the warm side of gradients.  NAO would surely help to keep things "under" us. 

Weather is just like poker....

make the best hand outta what you got and sometimes you win......

and sometimes you lose a watch/car/kid....

guess it depends on how much you love the game.....lol

 

 

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54 minutes ago, pasnownut said:


yeah youre right.  wrong blizz.  lol

 

93' i def tainted and still got 28". 

96 was all snow but "only" like 25". 

16' was 28.5" of pure cold smoke powderbomb.  still 2016 for me.

I'm always welcome for challengers to knock 2016's crown though....:P

 

Edit- and while the sleet surely helped to compact and keep it around for a few days, pingers during a blizzard when you live where i do, is a scary thing, cause many events when I'm pingin....y'all to the N/W are still snowing, and I've lived through so many 1-2" snow to sleet/zr events down here in the piedmont, that it just gives me a nervous tick when I hear em.  Guess I need a therapist to fix that.....or a couple good snowstorms to heal my damaged soul.

You had 28" in '93? I didn't think there were totals anything close to that until you got out near Chambersburg. I got 18" in '93.

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31 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

You had 28" in '93? I didn't think there were totals anything close to that until you got out near Chambersburg. I got 18" in '93.

Yeah I’m pretty sure. Maybe it was 22”. I need to find some history but i know lancaster city got 18 and I know we got more. lived in ephrata and can’t find info. Will see what I can dig up. 

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34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yeah, this one is going to be a close call for CTP peeps.  18z, and the last two runs have eeked slightly SE w/ 700's and 850's, and now have the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the state into some fun this weekend.  Still time for some wiggle, but waiting for cold is never an easy thing...especially down in the LSV.  Low placement is improving, but if not, i think we in the LSV are watching from the bench.

AO and signs of NAO wanting to go neg have me hopeful for a return to winter fun, but -PNA will make it a zonal flow with bowling balls crossing the conus.  If thats the case we really need the -AO to show up or we could end up on the warm side of gradients.  NAO would surely help to keep things "under" us. 

Weather is just like poker....

make the best hand outta what you got and sometimes you win......

and sometimes you lose a watch/car/kid....

guess it depends on how much you love the game.....lol

 

 

Sigh, I made a mistake discussing Euro and GFS details. I was in fact giving a thorough take on the 0z runs of those two and not the 12z. AccuPro updated their pro site and for whatever reason it'll say the latest run is such time but you have to manually select the right time if it's not 0z instead of it automatically doing that for you like it's supposed to. Must be a bug that needs fixed I dunno. Either way, the 12z runs were in fact better (more wintry or close to being wintry) than the 0z ones I just commented on. The Euro had a pretty solid looking ice event for the northern tier and a slice of the central counties and it's track almost got underneath PA but its still too far northwest. The 12 and 18z GFS had pretty heavy snows into western PA instead of more in the Ohio Valley. 

So yea, the LSV still needs some work but the western and even true central were more in the game with todays runs than the 0z runs I accidentally discussed haha. We gotta sneak the low underneath PA and get it moving just to the east. 

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11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Sigh, I made a mistake discussing Euro and GFS details. I was in fact giving a thorough take on the 0z runs of those two and not the 12z. AccuPro updated their pro site and for whatever reason it'll say the latest run is such time but you have to manually select the right time if it's not 0z instead of it automatically doing that for you like it's supposed to. Must be a bug that needs fixed I dunno. Either way, the 12z runs were in fact better (more wintry or close to being wintry) than the 0z ones I just commented on. The Euro had a pretty solid looking ice event for the northern tier and a slice of the central counties and it's track almost got underneath PA but its still too far northwest. The 12 and 18z GFS had pretty heavy snows into western PA instead of more in the Ohio Valley. 

So yea, the LSV still needs some work but the western and even true central were more in the game with todays runs than the 0z runs I accidentally discussed haha. We gotta sneak the low underneath PA and get it moving just to the east. 

Lol. All good bud. You had my doubtin myself fr a bit. 

Can you find snow total map fr blizzard 93 for Lanc County?  I’d swear we did somethin in the mid to upper 20’s in my area (ephrata). Lanc online wasn’t much help

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6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Im going w/ 2016 cause i tainted in 96 for a bit.  You guys didnt.  

2016 was long duration loving and 99% snow IMBY.....and its ALL about the back yard ya know....

that said, I'd take either in a heartbeat.  Just no big warmup right after.  God that sucks 

Where were you in 96 that you changed over?  Didn't think anywhere in pa except near philly mixed.  I know here in northern MD was all snow. Also you said 99% in 2016. Does that mean there was some mixing there too?  I didn't think mixing got anywhere near you but maybe I'm wrong in where I thought you lived. 

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where were you in 96 that you changed over?  Didn't think anywhere in pa except near philly mixed.  I know here in northern MD was all snow. Also you said 99% in 2016. Does that mean there was some mixing there too?  I didn't think mixing got anywhere near you but maybe I'm wrong in where I thought you lived. 

Yeah....I need to type slower. 

93’ I tainted. Several hours in afternoon  

96 was all snow to best of my knowledge  but not as much as 16’

16’ was best to me as it was all snow and 2 claps of thunder pulse long duration (approx 28/30 hrs)  

 

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