pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: As long as he bans the term "American Pie February". This is the second year in a row he's used it and we've had record breaking warmth in both haha (esp after tomorrows projected highs). The Phase 7 MJO really did slow this whole process down. It has spent every single day in February in the phase and counting. If it would have more quickly progressed to 8 like it went through 5 and 6, we might have been talking about this shift in the pattern already occurring. We are starting to see most guidance project it going through at least 8-1 now instead of going into the circle, so that's a plus. They are also starting to show this -NAO development a lot more solidly now and it certainly looks like the real deal. There's a lot in this potential upcoming pattern that screams volatility and we have really extreme teleconnection indices being projected. PNA as low as -6 (ESRL site) , NAO to -4 (also ESRL), AO diving down towards -5. The PNA is also supposed to be swinging toward neutral (a major swing in amplitude) as the NAO dives. So we're talking a massive shift in the pattern, and usually these types of shifts turn into big storms. So certainly the threat is there, and now I think the big coastal threat will be on the table. The presence of a blocking regime via the NAO allows for the longer duration coastals with the anomalous easterly flow from the Atlantic that are hallmarks of the big ones, and something we've really been lacking this winter to this point. After worrying that the NAO amplitude might not be enough to offset the really negative PNA, I also wonder about the projected amplitude of the NAO now if the PNA neutralizes. A -3 to -4 type NAO invites the possibility of storms getting suppressed below us, or at least the prospect of a confluent type setup that has a razor edge in the event of a big snow event. At any rate it's going to be interesting to watch how this all shakes out as we wait out this warm week. Model forecasts are going to be highly changeable. As such, individual events that will prob pop up in the longer range shouldn't be the main focus. Rather, the big picture of the pattern should be first as it comes into focus. Things may pop up in the medium range as well, much like our last event did. Great summary MAG. The tough part is that we are challenged to do something that has been really difficult...look into the long range and hope for continued continuity / evolution. That (for me anyway) is tough after the year we’ve had with LR variability but seeing the NAO, MJO, AO, EPO and PNA trending as they are is like holding a pair of K’s at the blackjack table. Just gotta see what the dealers gonna do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 As we enjoy this winter warm spell, I’m the most excited I’ve been all winter for snow prospects the next few weeks.March with its changing seasons and a negative NAO could be fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 i like extremes and record breakers, so lets break record high tomorrow (Wednesday) and then set up for a record breaking blizzard in March, and we'll call it the maynuttown storm since you 2 have been chirping it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i like extremes and record breakers, so lets break record high tomorrow (Wednesday) and then set up for a record breaking blizzard in March, and we'll call it the maynuttown storm since you 2 have been chirping it up Well................ My wife calls me a nut on a good day, so that works for me. I'm sure it will for the real nut too. I agree with Superstorm. I might actually be disappointed if we don't score. Saying that, I'm smart and old enough to know that a whole lot can go wrong, but man...looking at the modeling for say 2 weeks from now...I start getting goosebumps at the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 You guys enthusiasm is contagious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, sauss06 said: You guys enthusiasm is contagious awww....thanks pal. We gotchu bro.... Lookig at the overnights.....I may be going all in on this one....so if it dosnt work, you may need to bring beer to the cave, cause I'll need a little help from my friends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 and heres why.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Well................ My wife calls me a nut on a good day, so that works for me. I'm sure it will for the real nut too. I agree with Superstorm. I might actually be disappointed if we don't score. Saying that, I'm smart and old enough to know that a whole lot can go wrong, but man...looking at the modeling for say 2 weeks from now...I start getting goosebumps at the possibilities. Im honored to be in such great company....win or lose...y'all make this a great hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 whoa nelly................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Sneaky ice event showing up for us northern dudes Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Sneaky ice event showing up for us northern dudes Thurs. Yeah. I definitely wouldn't sleep on that for anyone along and north of I-80. Ice is always a concern. Doesn't look to be major per say, but any ice is tricky to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, sauss06 said: whoa nelly................................................. Tellies are lining up nicely, and I dare say, may give us a little wiggle room (please dont tell them i said that), but it really is a can do pattern if it evolves as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. I definitely wouldn't sleep on that for anyone along and north of I-80. Ice is always a concern. Doesn't look to be major per say, but any ice is tricky to deal with. hey before you leave for sunny FLA, whats your take on where we are headed? March 5 week looks to be "the one" IMO. whatsayu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 That subtropical jet... I might even get excited for major snowstorm prospects up here if this feature persists into the medium range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Thanks Millville. Reading I guess it is issue of how much precip. is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Just now, heavy_wx said: That subtropical jet... I might even get excited for major snowstorm prospects up here if this feature persists into the medium range guidance. Yeah I didnt post about that, but split flow out west was what sorta got me giddy as well. Suppression is a possibility, but I'd take these odds any day and play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Thanks Millville. Reading I guess it is issue of how much precip. is available. Precip isnt the problem....SER is the problem (tempwise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 850s at same time WSPTWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: hey before you leave for sunny FLA, whats your take on where we are headed? March 5 week looks to be "the one" IMO. whatsayu? My feeling is as long as the blocking setup remains favorable into next week on the ensembles, we're pretty likely to see some kind of an east coast system. As of now, the NAO is favored to be around 3 std below normal for the week you are mentioning. That's a good sign, because so far, any long range blocking has petered to nothing or has been transient at best. I like seeing strong blocking signals in the long term because they usually do occur, even if it means it comes in weaker. Too much a good thing can be bad in this case. We want to see somewhere around 1.5 to 2.5 std below normal for a good shot at reducing suppression. I think we can manage that here. It's a nice retrograding H5 pattern with a classic trough look for the east. That being said, wish the PAC was a little more cooperative on LR guidance. We might need that really strong block to assure better opportunities for here (MAG alluded to this as well). EPS looked okay in that realm this morning. I think we'll be tracking rumors of storms in the coming days. This is one of those times where you can get something to latch at day 7 and carry into the short term. Of course, fine tune details always take time. My WAG, I can see a decent storm or two in March with 3/6-20 being the prime time. That's two weeks with a shot. If everything materializes, bound to see at least a chance come along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: That subtropical jet... I might even get excited for major snowstorm prospects up here if this feature persists into the medium range guidance. Hard not to like with what's coming down the pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Thanks Millville. Reading I guess it is issue of how much precip. is available. It's a marginal setup, but a very shallow, cold airmass can get the job done. Temps will be warm next few days, so areas will see concrete and asphalt surfaces rise in temp to where a sudden cold shot will take longer to bring down the surface temps. As for trees and elevated surfaces, those can cool quick, so there could be some decent accretion if the precip is light with temps in the 20's to near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Sneaky ice event showing up for us northern dudes Thurs. 12z GFS verbatim show HP in better spot and that CAD signal that popped up yesterday popped back up again today. While still not likely a big win, the trends are a little better for maybe I80 and north crew especially northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Hit 70 officially here. Kinda crazy, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 64 here in the burg on Forester st. And to think 2 days ago I was on a snowmobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 74 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 31 minutes ago, 2001kx said: 74 here 74.4 here. Disgusting. This is even exceeding my thoughts from last week. If...and it's a big if...we have full sun down here tomorrow, there will be reports of 80. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 76 now in Etown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 76 now in Etown Etown? You're right up 743 from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Etown? You're right up 743 from me. Yup. I work there. Right across from the college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 MDT looks to have maxed out at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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