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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I grew up in central Jersey in the 80s.

A 4 to 6 inch storm was a good snowstorm.

Long Island always turned to rain.

And best snows were always north and west of the city.

It’s opposite now.


.

Yep, I would listen to KYW1060 in Philly. I knew, I just knew if they were calling for 1"-3" in the city and immediate suburbs that out here in Lanco it would be double or triple that. 

The past 10 years or so you can totally flip that equation around. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Truth. I've said that many times about my own area. I was reading in the NYC forum the other day, perhaps it was just yesterday, where someone was talking about how a SECS is equivalent to 6" of snow, and was then ridiculed that 6" is not significant. Hey, when I was a teen i hugged my little 'ole NOAA weather radio when Bob Curl, Dan Hurley, or Russ Jordan would announce a winter storm warning for 4"-8" of snow. That just isn't good enough for people today, apparently. 

Certain generations in certain areas along the east coast are in for a rude awakening if long- term climo reverts back to what those of us who were around here experienced in the 70s and 80s. 

Wow. Thx for the walk down memory lane...Dan Hurley. 

Oh the good ol’ days. 

Wxl40 was this forum for me 30 yrs ago. 

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

In the ~130 years on record – this is the 37th time that Harrisburg has recorded a streak of 10 or more consecutive days with highs not climbing above the 32F mark.  23 of the 37 times have had all days with highs below 32F.  10 of the other 14 streaks had just one day with a high of 32 while 4 of those 14 had no more than 2 high of 32F occurrences.  With forecasted highs the next two days, we are pretty much guaranteed to reach 13 but will depend on what the high ends up being on Monday to see if we move into top 10 at 14 days.

image.thumb.png.3b14820ced46c131c4d48f11c22be8c5.png

 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted
On 1/4/2018 at 8:25 PM, canderson said:

The MA forum has declared winter dead. 

I wouldn't expect too many sympathy cards from the interior central PA or especially western PA/Pittsburgh folks on the Mid-Atlantic's hardship haha. I've mentioned before this was going to be a hard pattern to score on a coastal in our region given the pattern alignment (plenty cold via the -EPO ridging but no NAO blocking). I consider the fact we had such a big one take a wack and just miss us locally a bonus in the current pattern. We had a nicely placed western ridge but a broad trough without downstream blocking to shorten wavelengths and force the storm to travel closer to the coast.. and also allow for a fairly rapid movement. The setup allowed the storm to come together over the Gulf Stream, which is running higher than average SST's along with a pretty big portion of the Atlantic and bomb out. We just don't usually get coastals that bend back far enough to impact central PA much without blocking from where it really started forming off the GA/SC coast. The system seemed more of the mold of a North Atlantic ocean storm than your run of the mill Nor'easter with the explosive deepening and very low central pressure. IMO, the extreme intensification stage of the system may have tightened up the heaviest precip bands, especially in the Mid-Atlantic region.. where the storm was firing off tons of convection near the center at the time. You have that and the dry arctic air pushing in from the NW so it's going to eat at NW extent. There was still a portion of that region that did decently. At any rate, it was a fascinating system to watch develop.... especially with the new GOES East (16) satellite imagery. 

This massive storm moving out is likely going to be a catalyst in shuffling the pattern some as we get into next week. A thaw looks to be coming immediately preceding Monday into Tuesday's system. We're already looking at a rapid moderation aloft ongoing preceding that next system. I think most precip will be of the frozen variety (will have to watch for ice southern tier), but there might not be much of it east of the mountains in the Sus Valley. Mean flow stays westerly, which invites the typical downsloping issues. It will probably still be at least a light event for the whole region. Trough moves the rest of the way out for the mid-week timeframe and ridging builds over us ahead of the next system, so I expect at least a couple days that get relatively warm.  As we get toward the end of next week (D7-8+), there's likely to be a wave (mainly rain) that comes through but the Euro and especially GFS has had a couple interesting takes at times the last couple days. Both models are implying a slow frontal boundary to eventually try to push through with more cold air behind and multiple waves running on it. Take the 18z GFS for example that runs a wave up through us into a 1040 high and a very messy ice/snow storm look. I think we'll have to eventually watch for some issues with that type of setup, but it's probably going to warm up for a few days and likely rain first. The pattern beyond looks to be more changeable, stormier but not the dominant Pac ridging we had.. and not really much NAO help as usual. Could be a back and forth period. There had been some rumblings of an MJO pulse running through the undesirable phases 4-6, which would imply a more robust thaw is in the cards soon..  but CPC's MJO forecast site hasn't worked since Jan 1st. So not really sure where models are currently at with that in terms of magnitude.  

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

The last 2 runs of the GFS bring snow to all of CTP next Saturday with 6 to 10 inches of snow region wide. It pushed the cold boundary through early Saturday after some rain on Friday. Then on Saturday it brings a wave of low pressure that hugs the Coast & puts CTP in a good spot for snow at this juncture. The Euro also has a storm in this time period, but has it riding up the Appalachian’s & brings more rain. If if pushes east perhaps 100 miles or so, CTP would be in a good spot for snow on the Euro as well.

Before all of this potential for next weekend, we have the chance for some light snow or ice on Monday. It looks like not much  precip at this time, but we all know it doesn’t take much ice to cause trouble on the roads, especially with the 2 straight weeks of frigid temps that we have just experienced .

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The last 2 runs of the GFS bring snow to all of CTP next Saturday with 6 to 10 inches of snow region wide. It pushed the cold boundary through early Saturday after some rain on Friday. Then on Saturday it brings a wave of low pressure that hugs the Coast & puts CTP in a good spot for snow at this juncture. The Euro also has a storm in this time period, but has it riding up the Appalachian’s & brings more rain. If if pushes east perhaps 100 miles or so, CTP would be in a good spot for snow on the Euro as well.

Before all of this potential for next weekend, we have the chance for some light snow or ice on Monday. It looks like not much  precip at this time, but we all know it doesn’t take much ice to cause trouble on the roads, especially with the 2 straight weeks of frigid temps that we have just experienced .

 

Should be a really interesting week. Euro paints the LSV at or above 60 later this week, and as you mentioned, a strong front traverses the area late Friday followed potentially by a wave (or two) of low pressure that moves up the eastern seaboard. Timing will be everything but models are spitting out some interesting scenarios for next weekend. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Plenty of good looks on the 12z GEFS for snow for next weekend for CTP. Most of the members give us a couple of inches of snow, & a few provide good hits. This should be another long week of tracking.

you forgot GEPS.  Looks quite similar for next weekend storm...

EPS is on its own...

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