anotherman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 55 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It's nice to see the NAO finally going negative on the model forecasts. It's not so nice seeing such a negative PNA.. like really negative.. down under -6 at one point! That's an overpowering magnitude even if we reverse to a -NAO eventually. Even half that magnitude implies some of the troughiness and cold air dumping into the west is going to suggest the SE ridge is going to be an influence in response with or without a -NAO. How far down the line are we talking to see any effects from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, anotherman said: How far down the line are we talking to see any effects from this? Check the dates in the bottom of each indicies. Verbatim PNA says trough in west 19th as NAO still not very neg so that screams ridge in east. As PNA rises back towards + would say more zonal flow and NAO going further neg would help to suppress flow in the east. Imo best time for a colder snow event would be a bowling ball coming across or energy from the SW between 2/27 through 3/3ish. Can’t really say much more than that from indicies above. Hope that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 CTP seems fairly confident in most of us seeing 2-4 inches of snow Saturday night. Most models today had MDT in the 4 inch range. If we can score 4 inches or so, it would get us close to back on pace for average snow totals this season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Check the dates in the bottom of each indicies. Verbatim PNA says trough in west 19th as NAO still not very neg so that screams ridge in east. As PNA rises back towards + would say more zonal flow and NAO going further neg would help to suppress flow in the east. Imo best time for a colder snow event would be a bowling ball coming across or energy from the SW between 2/27 through 3/3ish. Can’t really say much more than that from indicies above. Hope that helps Thanks, man. Let’s hope we get an epic end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, anotherman said: Thanks, man. Let’s hope we get an epic end of winter. I'm right with ya. to me, NAO is critical based on other indicies. Otherwise, we'd be playin w/ fire and natsomuch ice.... also to my eye, ensembles seemed a little less pronounced with NAO it but still workable. Too far out to get really caught up other than to monitor trends IMO. As PNA rises towards neutral, NAO EPO and AO can all help to keep us on the right side of the snow fence. We've seen what a neg EPO can do for us cold wise, so to my less than trained eye, its still workable. Just trying to throw some chatter out there, and if any see otherwise, chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 0z's are running and the NAM'rs are starting off on the right foot. Much of our forum is into the goods and would be a nice event. Hoping rest of overnights keep trending right for us. GFS also trends a little better. ICON only one that looks a little less excited about snow in these here parts... Hoping the across the pond model does as well. I'm turning in, so gnight all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 hours ago, anotherman said: How far down the line are we talking to see any effects from this? Well we already have been seeing the effects of the -PNA, with the southeast ridging pumping up warmth and lots of rain to close out this week. We're lucking out with this wave this weekend, which is timed well enough in the heels of tonight/tomorrows system to traverse the eastern US while it is still cold enough for our area. I mean really the weekend system in itself is a good example of the ability to still winter when the pattern is downright lousy for it. Right after that getting into next week (coinciding with the biggest drop in the PNA ) is when more troughing dumping into the west and pumping up what looks to be an even more anomalous ridge in the eastern third of the country. It's right around then that the NAO is supposed to go negative. We're probably looking around at least another 7-10 days before we MAY see the establishment of a -NAO help us out. There's still a lot of other factors going on and I think we're still in a transition period where the models are still trying to hash out the mid-long range. Guidance is still kinda split on what to do with the MJO.. either taking it into Phase 8/1 or losing the pulse into the circle without ever coming out of 7. I have felt we've needed this strong pulse to continue to traverse into phase 8 (which pretty much amounts to the pulse of tropical convection moving across the western Pacific toward the western hemisphere, etc to help force this -NAO we've seen being modeled. I want to be optimistic about the chances in March, and I am to a degree... but I'm still uncertain how well things are going to come to fruition. Or if they do.. it may well be later in March. We can do just fine without a -NAO. However, if we're going to be playing with a pretty solid -PNA pattern... we better have a pretty robust west based -NAO to force the southeast ridge down enough, or we'll be dealing with a lot more rainy waves and limited chances for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The 0z Euro is good for the LSV & delivers 4 to 5 inches of snow. The NAM earlier tonight also was on board with similar amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 i would assume i have already reached my high temp for the day and it will steadily decline throughout. Happy Friday fellas cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i would assume i have already reached my high temp for the day and it will steadily decline throughout. Happy Friday fellas cheers I believe you are correct. Confession...and this kinda proves my cold bias, but after watching it get up to 76 in my living room last evening, I cranked up the AC. Oh yes I did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I believe you are correct. Confession...and this kinda proves my cold bias, but after watching it get up to 76 in my living room last evening, I cranked up the AC. Oh yes I did... So proud of you..... you get the atta boy for the day!! Yeah I was not ready for yesterday. Guess it’s practice for what’s around the corner. Just hoping the corner is a long long sweeping one and not a hard right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, maytownpawx said: I believe you are correct. Confession...and this kinda proves my cold bias, but after watching it get up to 76 in my living room last evening, I cranked up the AC. Oh yes I did... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Hmm, in either 2015 or 2016 it was super warm on Christmas Eve. It felt very strange going to bed that night with the air running. My wife was like "do we really need the air running on Christmas Eve" and I'm saying does it really matter what the date is if it's a sauna in the house? At any rate, it's a beautifully damp fall morning outside. Here's hoping for good model runs at 12z today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 34 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Hmm, in either 2015 or 2016 it was super warm on Christmas Eve. It felt very strange going to bed that night with the air running. My wife was like "do we really need the air running on Christmas Eve" and I'm saying does it really matter what the date is if it's a sauna in the house? At any rate, it's a beautifully damp fall morning outside. Here's hoping for good model runs at 12z today... December 2015. i mowed my grass that afternoon, just to say i did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Let’s take the Euro and run with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: December 2015. i mowed my grass that afternoon, just to say i did it we had windows and doors open while cleaning and preppy for family GTG that evening. I was in a horrid mood as i was sweating my arse off in shorts and Tshirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Winter storm watches for Berkshire and Chester.Guess CTP waiting for more guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: we had windows and doors open while cleaning and preppy for family GTG that evening. I was in a horrid mood as i was sweating my arse off in shorts and Tshirt. I went to my sisters for our annual Family Christmas Eve gathering in my swim suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Winter storm watches for Berkshire and Chester.Guess CTP waiting for more guidance. . CTP's forecast discussion this morning wasn't much of a read. I think it might have been 2 sentences for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: CTP's forecast discussion this morning wasn't much of a read. I think it might have been 2 sentences for tomorrow and tomorrow night. They have been less then thrilled about this the last couple of days. I guess when it happens and there are impacts they will change their tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: CTP's forecast discussion this morning wasn't much of a read. I think it might have been 2 sentences for tomorrow and tomorrow night. They have a bias against snow and it's evident in their wording at times. Been that way for a long....long time. While I get that they dont have to like it, for those that relish our few months, its often painful to read for those of us that seemingly "know better". lol and to be fair, sometimes they are right in their approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I went to my sisters for our annual Family Christmas Eve gathering in my swim suit It wouldnt surprise me one bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12Z NAM looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: 12Z NAM looks good. . it's a good quick hit. Thump and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, paweather said: it's a good quick hit. Thump and done. and qpf distribution is similar to the Euro. looks like they still like rt 15 to i 80 boundary for best snow too. Northern sheild backed off a bit, but is not totally shocking due to speed of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 My little President's Day weekend storm looking good! I'm terrible at seeing timing, does it look to start up around 7-8ish pm tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 FWIW 3k just got stingy for true central. Hug 12k if you want more snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, canderson said: My little President's Day weekend storm looking good! I'm terrible at seeing timing, does it look to start up around 7-8ish pm tomorrow? late afternoon for you. 4-5 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: It wouldnt surprise me one bit.... I have a picture, but its to big and for some reason editor isnt allowing me to crop/resize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: FWIW 3k just got stingy for true central. Hug 12k if you want more snow... It's about the difference between 0.5" and 1" for this part of true central haha. It looks good for the LSV, but not for much of any other part of the subforum. NAM has really tightened the northern extent to the snowfall over the last few runs since 18z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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