Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

yup....and I can also hearing the snow screaming "Im melting" after some as well.  Would be nice to have some come, and stay for a while for sure.  So far with the exception of the cold shot of late Dec., the pattern hasn't been one for this.  Take what we can get and it is what it is.

We've had a pretty good portion of this winter be supportive in the temp department but not in terms of an active storm pattern, pretty much from mid-December to almost mid Jan and then to open up February. Now that we have an active storm pattern we're in a rough spot with how the pattern is positioned currently. I'm always a fan of racking up snow when it comes but it is a bummer when whatever we get is likely going to barely last an extra day or so afterwards. I like to go snowboarding and stuff much like you like to go snowmobiling so I look at the bigger picture of the several days preceding and following the potential snowfall as still a net loss. The local resorts are going to really get adversely affected by the warm weather and significant rainfall that's coming both within the next couple days and also probably next week as well. But on the other hand, I would consider it extremely lucky if any of us get this snow event considering the setup. I did say the other day that outside of a well timed wave that we're probably mostly out of the game for at least the next week to 10 days... so this would def fall in the well timed wave category. 

I do remain cautiously optimistic about getting into March. It probably is one of the better signals from modeling we've seen recently regarding the development of a -NAO, and I think we're going to need it to succeed with more snow events and have a solid end game in March. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The overnight models all look to be on board for a few inches of snow on Saturday night for the LSV.

[pasnownut]

8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

We've had a pretty good portion of this winter be supportive in the temp department but not in terms of an active storm pattern, pretty much from mid-December to almost mid Jan and then to open up February. Now that we have an active storm pattern we're in a rough spot with how the pattern is positioned currently. I'm always a fan of racking up snow when it comes but it is a bummer when whatever we get is likely going to barely last an extra day or so afterwards. I like to go snowboarding and stuff much like you like to go snowmobiling so I look at the bigger picture of the several days preceding and following the potential snowfall as still a net loss. The local resorts are going to really get adversely affected by the warm weather and significant rainfall that's coming both within the next couple days and also probably next week as well. But on the other hand, I would consider it extremely lucky if any of us get this snow event considering the setup. I did say the other day that outside of a well timed wave that we're probably mostly out of the game for at least the next week to 10 days... so this would def fall in the well timed wave category. 

I do remain cautiously optimistic about getting into March. It probably is one of the better signals from modeling we've seen recently regarding the development of a -NAO, and I think we're going to need it to succeed with more snow events and have a solid end game in March. 

Yeah I guess temps havent been horrid, but keeping snow around sure has.  In truth, this is a "normalish" kinda winter, and all things considered, We are either seeing or talking about snow almost every week, so I'm fine w/ it.  My cousin sold me a few sets of skis, and I'm hoping to get out as its been many years (I started out a ski bum before I could afford the sleds), and my kids board/ski a little so it would be fun to go again.  I think the slopes will taking a huge hit, and feel bad for them.  They needed a good year, and its been decent, but hope this doesnt knock them back too far.  

Yeah the LR still seems to be gaining momentum, so hopefully we go out with a bang.  NAO is long overdue to the party.  Once we get to next weekend, we can see the SE ridge breaking down and the early signs of the NAO starting to show up.  Hoping in the next week that we can continue to see that trend, as with the shortening wavelengths as we turn the calendar, we could really have some fun.

[Itstrainingtime]

March has always been a "go big or go home" kind of month, and with the pattern being advertised on the long range modeling our chances at going big are even higher than normal. Doesn't mean it will snow at all...but i think most of us will be invested for at least several more weeks. 

[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

March has always been a "go big or go home" kind of month, and with the pattern being advertised on the long range modeling our chances at going big are even higher than normal. Doesn't mean it will snow at all...but i think most of us will be invested for at least several more weeks. 

agreed man.  I think that if it continues to evolve as it appears, some really fun looking model runs will start to show up....and like it or not, we'll all get sucked back in.  One point of concern for me is the troughing in the SW that seems to keep showing up.  If the NAO flops....we might be in trouble.

[pasnownut]

First nooner 12k NAM says....enjoy your Saturday night special.

LP jog north has me finishing w/ drizzle but I even get 4-6".  Most of the forum is in 3-6" range.  Get beer ready now!!

edit -  I could still see it coming further north and giving the LSV lesser totals due to taint.... Hoping thats not the case.  Clean snow is hard to find down here this winter.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

First nooner 12k NAM says....enjoy your Saturday night special.

LP jog north has me finishing w/ drizzle but I even get 4-6".  Most of the forum is in 3-6" range.  Get beer ready now!!

edit -  I could still see it coming further north and giving the LSV lesser totals due to taint.... Hoping thats not the case.  Clean snow is hard to find down here this winter.

Agreed, there's a lot of swiftly moving pieces and i don't know if we should feel comfortable/certain about any of this until at least tomorrow. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Agreed, there's a lot of swiftly moving pieces and i don't know if we should feel comfortable/certain about any of this until at least tomorrow. 

Yeah man.  Timing is everything in the midst of a hostile pattern.  While the rest of the 12z's are still largely game on....I'm not pushing any chips in until 12z tomorrow.  Just enjoying seeing the chance at adding to snow totals when its supposed to be over....

[Itstrainingtime]

Short term, let's see what happens this afternoon. My temp has spiked to 54 at 11:25am and is rising rapidly...

[anotherman]

I'm thinking that this could be a classic "north and west" storm.  Remember those?

[Santa Clause]

Any downpours or interesting weather possible later?

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Any downpours or interesting weather possible later?

Rumbles of thunder were mentioned down this way for later today. 

[pasnownut]

Its friggin sticky outside.

I hope a thunderstorm comes in to cool things off...........

 

Oh, sorry, just practicing for the next 9 months of the year.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Euro still good for 4"+, however the max has been shifting north and east of me bit by bit with every one. Tamaqua land is looking really good on the Euro...

I'm up to 65.4 now. Making a run at 70 today. Still think next Wednesday we torch as well. 

[canderson]

Yea I’m nervous Saturday dogs more birthday and we down here see more rain. State Collegw to Tamaqua look good at this moment. 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Its friggin sticky outside.

I hope a thunderstorm comes in to cool things off...........

 

Oh, sorry, just practicing for the next 9 months of the year.

 

I'm looking forward opening up the garage door and let some fresh air into my shop.

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea I’m nervous Saturday dogs more birthday and we down here see more rain. State Collegw to Tamaqua look good at this moment. 

There is no model showing Harrisburg/LSV as rain and we are 48 hours out. Euro even had has -5 850's  I believe. 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, paweather said:

There is no model showing Harrisburg/LSV as rain and we are 48 hours out. Euro even had has -5 850's  I believe. 

Yeah, the r/s line ticked north, but northern MD still looks to be primarily snow.  

State college has been northern fringe of best precip panels, but thats like 3 -5 more ticks north for that to happen.  Best precip panels have roughly been Rt15 to I80 and points S/E for Pa

 

[paweather]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Yeah, the r/s line ticked north, but northern MD still looks to be primarily snow.  

State college has been northern fringe of best precip panels, but thats like 3 -5 more ticks north for that to happen.  Best precip panels have roughly been Rt15 to I80 and points S/E for Pa

 

agreed. It will be warm over the next few days and folks are going to be there is no chance for snow but this happened many times before in our area. I am liking 4"> quick thump. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

agreed. It will be warm over the next few days and folks are going to be there is no chance for snow but this happened many times before in our area. I am liking 4"> quick thump. 

I agree. I think.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

agreed. It will be warm over the next few days and folks are going to be there is no chance for snow but this happened many times before in our area. I am liking 4"> quick thump. 

If we can sneak in a Sunday w/ snow on the ground....its a win for me.  I'll be out taking the dog for a hike or whatever i can do to enjoy the beauty of an overnight paste job.

[Itstrainingtime]

Think 65 will be high today, wind has shifted due east and I've dropped to 63.2. Already cooling off for this weekend's snowstorm.

[CarlislePaWx]

3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Think 65 will be high today, wind has shifted due east and I've dropped to 63.2. Already cooling off for this weekend's snowstorm.

Currently at 65 also, which is the current high, and still slowly rising.  Very light NNE winds less than 5 mph.  Feels really nice, but getting excited about the next snowstorm.  18Z 3-K NAM will have the event in its last 2 panels, so anxious to see what it paints for us.

[pasnownut]

Heres the Kings output for all of us pawns.....

[WmsptWx]

Oh look. The central PA bubble of lesser accumulations. Color me shocked.

[djr5001]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

agreed. It will be warm over the next few days and folks are going to be there is no chance for snow but this happened many times before in our area. I am liking 4"> quick thump. 

With a southeasterly wind and dew point temperatures in the 20s it would not surprise me one bit if Harrisburg area was overcast and had temps stay a few degrees below forecast highs on Saturday prior to the event.  Glad there is at least something to track the next few days. 

 

As for tonight, this is a ridiculous amount of moisture moving into the east coast that we do not typically have in the month of February.  Flooding threat is real for some areas east Ohio, west PA, north WV tonight.

[Itstrainingtime]

Wind shift, full sun, and now up to 67!

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Oh look. The central PA bubble of lesser accumulations. Color me shocked.

I know the central PA bubble is a thing with certain events but I don't think I've seen it so many times in one winter. Pittsburgh officially as of the 11th had 36.9" which was good for 140% of normal to date and I think that's rather close to climo for the whole season for them. That's outpacing my measured seasonal total here by over a foot. 

I think it's a product of the progressive pattern we've had this year, we've had no downstream blocking or even a good well placed high pressure system to help any developing coastals (the few that we've had) get that strong easterly flow off the Atlantic that usually takes away the snow hole. This system Sat Night while a fast mover should be able to run a pretty good slug of moisture through PA so I don't think the snow hole will be as pronounced. It's kind of a similar system to the one we saw two Sundays ago, and the GFS/Euro was really playing up the snow hole on that one but it ended up grabbing some more Gulf Moisture. 

[MAG5035]

It's nice to see the NAO finally going negative on the model forecasts. It's not so nice seeing such a negative PNA.. like really negative.. down under -6 at one point! That's an overpowering magnitude even if we reverse to a -NAO eventually. Even half that magnitude implies some of the troughiness and cold air dumping into the west is going to suggest the SE ridge is going to be an influence in response with or without a -NAO. 

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I know the central PA bubble is a thing with certain events but I don't think I've seen it so many times in one winter. Pittsburgh officially as of the 11th had 36.9" which was good for 140% of normal to date and I think that's rather close to climo for the whole season for them. That's outpacing my measured seasonal total here by over a foot. 

I think it's a product of the progressive pattern we've had this year, we've had no downstream blocking or even a good well placed high pressure system to help any developing coastals (the few that we've had) get that strong easterly flow off the Atlantic that usually takes away the snow hole. This system Sat Night while a fast mover should be able to run a pretty good slug of moisture through PA so I don't think the snow hole will be as pronounced. It's kind of a similar system to the one we saw two Sundays ago, and the GFS/Euro was really playing up the snow hole on that one but it ended up grabbing some more Gulf Moisture. 

Read our thread....you would think it never snows. ☺️

Been an “OK” winter. Seasonal avg is 41.9” so we’ll beat that. But biggest storm was 5-6”, and some of the heavier snow has been localized. Lots of missed opportunities too as usual.