Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

[Blizzard of 93]

It looks like the next potential snow window could be next weekend. The GFS & Euro the last day or 2 have been showing a light to moderate snow event next weekend.

The Euro Control run last night produced the “Canderson” President’s Day weekend storm & had 6-10 inches of snow across all of CTP!

While we track this, I will actually enjoy melting off some of this 6 inch glacier of snow & ice that this week’s 2 storms produced here. Then, I want powder snow with the storm next week!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like the next potential snow window could be next weekend. The GFS & Euro the last day or 2 have been showing a light to moderate snow event next weekend.

The Euro Control run last night produced the “Canderson” President’s Day weekend storm & had 6-10 inches of snow across all of CTP!

While we track this, I will actually enjoy melting off some of this 6 inch glacier of snow & ice that this week’s 2 storms produced here. Then, I want powder snow with the storm next week!

It will be interesting to see how next weekend evolves. I think our best chance comes the last week of February/first week of March. 

[Voyager]

Check out this guy's video. He's a Canadian trucker and he does battle with the Coquihalla Summit in British Columbia. This is the same highway featured in The Discovery Channel's "Highway through Hell" TV series. Best footage of the struggle begins at the 9:00 minute mark.

 

 

[canderson]

That’s insane. No plowing in Calgary, wtf.

[MAG5035]

I've been growing progressively more pessimistic about the prospects for the rest of the month in terms of cold and snow. It's funny how differently things can evolve from how they looked just a week or two ago. I was looking at this current time and onward a couple weeks ago as just getting into the period of where we could see a decent reestablishment of a cold pattern and a shot at bigger storms. It ended up we see the period of winter weather coming in a week early in the first week of Feb and it's a good thing we cashed in on at least some snow because as it looks right now that might've been our best snow prospects of the month outside of a well timed wave. EPO remains negative, but PNA and NAO have become more of an influence. PNA is quite negative and NAO has become pretty positive as of late.. making for a much stormier pattern across the US but also one that doesn't benefit us very well as models have been portraying a pretty sizable Southeast/W Atlantic ridge that maintains the Eastern third of the US in above normal heights. 

The look of the pattern across the US being progged going forward is also quite indicative of a Phase 7 MJO if one compares to its JFM tendencies on temp departures, which is where the decent ongoing MJO pulse currently is in the middle of. It can be a stormy pattern that favors cutters more often than not and that has been playing out to a degree in the last week despite getting positive snow. There's still a good bit of time and a lot of potential going forward to late Feb and into March but I think a major key to this is whether or not this progresses into the more favorable 8 and 1 phases...and with how much magnitude. The big thing a lot of models have been doing in the last week or so has been keeping the MJO mired in phase 7 for awhile and moving towards 8 but also losing magnitude and going towards the circle. I personally think a strong MJO run through 8,1, etc may be what is potentially needed to help force the NAO out of it's seemingly perpetual state of positivity. The question is if it can get there and if it does.. how long does it take to get there. Predicting the MJO progression is something that models can certainly struggle with so this could still in quite a flux. But I feel for this coming week and probably at least the next 10 days or so overall I'd say we're mostly out of the game right now... which is a bummer because we're going to be eating up prime snowstorm climo. We also have the strat-warm event going on but one has to remember that it's not an exclusive (or well understood) teleconnector to Northeast US cold. There's also the whole rest of the northern hemisphere that arctic cold can be released into after a SSW event.

[pasnownut]

49 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I've been growing progressively more pessimistic about the prospects for the rest of the month in terms of cold and snow. It's funny how differently things can evolve from how they looked just a week or two ago. I was looking at this current time and onward a couple weeks ago as just getting into the period of where we could see a decent reestablishment of a cold pattern and a shot at bigger storms. It ended up we see the period of winter weather coming in a week early in the first week of Feb and it's a good thing we cashed in on at least some snow because as it looks right now that might've been our best snow prospects of the month outside of a well timed wave. EPO remains negative, but PNA and NAO have become more of an influence. PNA is quite negative and NAO has become pretty positive as of late.. making for a much stormier pattern across the US but also one that doesn't benefit us very well as models have been portraying a pretty sizable Southeast/W Atlantic ridge that maintains the Eastern third of the US in above normal heights. 

The look of the pattern across the US being progged going forward is also quite indicative of a Phase 7 MJO if one compares to its JFM tendencies on temp departures, which is where the decent ongoing MJO pulse currently is in the middle of. It can be a stormy pattern that favors cutters more often than not and that has been playing out to a degree in the last week despite getting positive snow. There's still a good bit of time and a lot of potential going forward to late Feb and into March but I think a major key to this is whether or not this progresses into the more favorable 8 and 1 phases...and with how much magnitude. The big thing a lot of models have been doing in the last week or so has been keeping the MJO mired in phase 7 for awhile and moving towards 8 but also losing magnitude and going towards the circle. I personally think a strong MJO run through 8,1, etc may be what is potentially needed to help force the NAO out of it's seemingly perpetual state of positivity. The question is if it can get there and if it does.. how long does it take to get there. Predicting the MJO progression is something that models can certainly struggle with so this could still in quite a flux. But I feel for this coming week and probably at least the next 10 days or so overall I'd say we're mostly out of the game right now... which is a bummer because we're going to be eating up prime snowstorm climo. We also have the strat-warm event going on but one has to remember that it's not an exclusive (or well understood) teleconnector to Northeast US cold. There's also the whole rest of the northern hemisphere that arctic cold can be released into after a SSW event.

Im gone for a few days and I come back to this.........

Thx for catching me up man, and in truth from the little i was able to keep in touch while in the mountains, I sorta got the idea that our nice Feb, and potentially beyond was pooping the bed.

For those that were able to enjoy the snow, it sure was nice to play in it.  We had about 14" on the ground at the cabin, but had lots of compaction (and some ice) as we left this morning.  

Hoping the warmup goes away as quickly as it popped up, and in my mind, the way this winter has not locked into anything, I"m hoping thats our way into another go or 2 at snow.  Darn NAO.

[canderson]

Today was a nice April day. Winter looks dead for the rest of February. Reading about Nina’s March doesn’t seem to be worth betting on either. Yikes.

[WmsptWx]

It's over. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Might it not snow again this winter? Sure...that's an option. But to call this winter over seems foolish to me. I mean, you have to go ALL the way back to 2017 and see that the storm that saved that winter came on...March 12th. That's a full month away. 

I think our chances of significant snow are extremely low for the next 2+ plus weeks. How anyone can say what happens in early to mid March is beyond me. There are strong signals for that elusive blocking to set up by then. That's one huge thing we need during Nina's. 

Come on, we're better than this. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Might it not snow again this winter? Sure...that's an option. But to call this winter over seems foolish to me. I mean, you have to go ALL the way back to 2017 and see that the storm that saved that winter came on...March 12th. That's a full month away. 

I think our chances of significant snow are extremely low for the next 2+ plus weeks. How anyone can say what happens in early to mid March is beyond me. There are strong signals for that elusive blocking to set up by then. That's one huge thing we need during Nina's. 

Come on, we're better than this. 

No one is saying it's really over, but current prospects aren't pretty. March can be big here, and our biggest storms can come then, jso I'm putting my hopes there. But February looks very ugly. Maybe toward the end something can change to set up a system.

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, canderson said:

No one is saying it's really over, but current prospects aren't pretty. March can be big here, and our biggest storms can come then, jso I'm putting my hopes there. But February looks very ugly. Maybe toward the end something can change to set up a system.

and only a little over a week ago....February looked epic, so to his point, as you already called Feb dead, any calls (right or wrong) are premature.  Yeah, the elusive NAO has been largely gone for almost 5 years, but it is currently modeled to show itself in the LR (sure, its been modeled many times, but climo and base state argues for this to be a something that can happen). 

We're all (well save a few) bummed that were loosing peak snow climo, but it is what it is.  Kickin stones wont change it. Nor will wishing it here. 

We've got 5-6 weeks left to play not matter the sun angle, rising temps and whatever the complainers will complain about with late snow....blah blah blah. 

If anything, this winter should have taught all of us that nothing is a lock.

[Santa Clause]

Im on board, tired of boring weather lol.

[pasnownut]

 

27 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Im on board, tired of boring weather lol.

I was surprised at how much snow you got last Wed.  I guess you were snowed in

 

Truth told...it hasnt been a dead ratter, but it hasnt been great by any stretch.  Still worlds better than last 2 winters.  I think surprises are still possible.  Heck look at the 12z icon if you want a weekend snow event. :).  thats just my point.  Volitility aint for the weak of heart.  lol

[Itstrainingtime]

With highs potentially reaching the 70s next week, winter cancellations will be in full force. I still believe we might have an active week or 2 in early to mid March. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Im on board, tired of boring weather lol.

I find myself agreeing with you a lot this winter.

As a snow lover, I wait patiently for 8-9 months throughout the spring, summer, and fall for the 1st winter weather opportunity to begin showing up on models. It's disappointing when we're in peak snow climo right now and there is nothing going on and nothing really in sight. In just 4-6 weeks, tracking is essentially over in these parts until sometime in November. That's a tough reality for us snow hounds. Am i disappointed right now? Yes. I love the chase. The week leading up to a snowstorm is like the month of December leading up to Christmas. Excitement, anticipation, happiness...those are all things I go through at that time. Christmas day finally comes and by that night I feel almost let down. That's what happens the day after a big snowstorm. All the euphoria of tracking and then watching it unfold is thrilling...and pretty much as soon as it's over I feel like...okay, when and where is the next one to track? It's a roller coaster of emotions but it's something that I so look forward to.

Right now...I miss that. A lot. Right now there should be SOMETHING to track, but there just isn't. I'm still hoping that we'll score before the curtain comes down. I'm looking forward to Blizzard of '93 giving us some good news in about 3 weeks...

[Santa Clause]

I wholeheartedly agree man, you guys have converted me. I will even take a skimming just for something to track. I like all exciting weather, but not even a solid rainstorm lined up.

[Santa Clause]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

 

I was surprised at how much snow you got last Wed.  I guess you were snowed in

 

Truth told...it hasnt been a dead ratter, but it hasnt been great by any stretch.  Still worlds better than last 2 winters.  I think surprises are still possible.  Heck look at the 12z icon if you want a weekend snow event. :).  thats just my point.  Volitility aint for the weak of heart.  lol

Ehhhh we sleeted early after 3.7 total, but hey, better than boring.

[canderson]

3 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

With highs potentially reaching the 70s next week, winter cancellations will be in full force. I still believe we might have an active week or 2 in early to mid March. 

Holy moly, that warm? Crazy.

[Blizzard of 93]

We are not getting anywhere near the 70’s next week! 50’s yes, near 60 maybe, but no way do we get near 70.

Winter is far from over ! Every year we go through this early “winter is over” nonsense! The last time I checked, TODAY IS FEBRUARY 12 TH ! We have over 40 days where we could still score good snow. Even those with short term memories should remember that 2 of the last 3 years we have had good March snow storms, including last year’s blockbuster on March 14th for most of CTP. 

The MJO will progress eventually out of phase 7 into more favorable phases. We also have the chance of the elusive -NAO setting up toward the end of February.  We still have the chance to get into a good pattern to close out winter strong.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I find myself agreeing with you a lot this winter.

As a snow lover, I wait patiently for 8-9 months throughout the spring, summer, and fall for the 1st winter weather opportunity to begin showing up on models. It's disappointing when we're in peak snow climo right now and there is nothing going on and nothing really in sight. In just 4-6 weeks, tracking is essentially over in these parts until sometime in November. That's a tough reality for us snow hounds. Am i disappointed right now? Yes. I love the chase. The week leading up to a snowstorm is like the month of December leading up to Christmas. Excitement, anticipation, happiness...those are all things I go through at that time. Christmas day finally comes and by that night I feel almost let down. That's what happens the day after a big snowstorm. All the euphoria of tracking and then watching it unfold is thrilling...and pretty much as soon as it's over I feel like...okay, when and where is the next one to track? It's a roller coaster of emotions but it's something that I so look forward to.

Right now...I miss that. A lot. Right now there should be SOMETHING to track, but there just isn't. I'm still hoping that we'll score before the curtain comes down. I'm looking forward to Blizzard of '93 giving us some good news in about 3 weeks...

I go through the same process that you described with each winter storm!

I will be right here tracking the next one!

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I go through the same process that you described with each winter storm!

I will be right here tracking the next one!

Add me to the list. Been that way for many years. While it looks less than favorable right now I just chuckle when every year the Its over comments fly during the lulls. There is little going on that states as such and if you looked today it’s quite the contrary after we waste another week or so with a shot this weekend. It’s fair to say I want it more than most....but no matter...it’s just weather, and while I have a passion for it....I also have perspective.  Wall to wall just rarely happens. 

[MAG5035]

On 2/11/2018 at 10:30 PM, canderson said:

Today was a nice April day. Winter looks dead for the rest of February. Reading about Nina’s March doesn’t seem to be worth betting on either. Yikes.

The current Nina we're in hasn't been a particularly strong one, generally in the weak to maybe the low edge of moderate category. The last 3 month running average (NDJ) was right at -1.0ºC. We're actually not in an official classified Nina yet, needing 5 consecutive three month average periods of -0.5ºC or more to be considered a full fledge episode. I'm sure that'll be official once Feb is over and DJF gets calculated as we're still running comparable nina conditions (-0.9ºC as of today). So from the ENSO perspective addressing the possible influence on March is probably a bit of a toss-up. We ran a weak Nina last winter too (although started earlier and went to neutral by late in the winter) and we had our big March snowstorm. There are a couple other positive March examples, like March 99. That was in the midst of a much stronger Nina episode. I was looking at the archived Penn State observation data and 1.5" the whole month of February turned into over 17" in the first 15 days of March that year via three separate events with the headliner being a March 14 Miller A that got most of our region and the whole LSV a pretty sizable snowstorm. I'm pretty sure H-burg saw at least the latter 2 of those events. Before March that winter as a whole was a much bleaker one overall for snow lovers than this one has been (record warm December, mixy January, not much snow in Feb).

So I guess what I'm getting at is we can definitely turn things around quick even in March and that I don't think the Nina is having an overbearing influence on this current winter other than maybe running a more progressive, northern stream dominated pattern. 

On 2/11/2018 at 3:38 PM, pasnownut said:

Im gone for a few days and I come back to this.........

Thx for catching me up man, and in truth from the little i was able to keep in touch while in the mountains, I sorta got the idea that our nice Feb, and potentially beyond was pooping the bed.

For those that were able to enjoy the snow, it sure was nice to play in it.  We had about 14" on the ground at the cabin, but had lots of compaction (and some ice) as we left this morning.  

Hoping the warmup goes away as quickly as it popped up, and in my mind, the way this winter has not locked into anything, I"m hoping thats our way into another go or 2 at snow.  Darn NAO.

I think as I mentioned the other day, that the MJO is going to be a big key into the end game for late in the month and going into March. It wasn't a big key early in the winter as we didn't have the strong magnitude when it was cold in December/early Jan. I personally think this current, stronger MJO pulse can help facilitate a negative NAO IF we can maintain the stronger magnitude if/when it gets to phase 8. There has been some  signs of blocking showing up in the long range of the model guidance. With a pretty solidly negative PNA forecast to continue we could really use a negative NAO developing to help force a low zonal storm track across the country that doesn't cut us. The pattern over the Pacific itself (EPO, WPO) has still looked okay. I'd be careful when looking into the long range guidance (not that you shouldn't be leery to begin with), but it figures to be quite changeable as it sorts out what ultimately starts setting up pattern wise. So while I'm pessimistic about the rest of this month, or certainly the next 8-10 days that take us to the last week of the month.. I still maintain optimism in that the pattern will eventually get back into something that will give us some more chances. And if we do actually end up with a legitimate -NAO I think that can put the big storm option on the table as well. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We are not getting anywhere near the 70’s next week! 50’s yes, near 60 maybe, but no way do we get near 70.

Winter is far from over ! Every year we go through this early “winter is over” nonsense! The last time I checked, TODAY IS FEBRUARY 12 TH ! We have over 40 days where we could still score good snow. Even those with short term memories should remember that 2 of the last 3 years we have had good March snow storms, including last year’s blockbuster on March 14th for most of CTP. 

The MJO will progress eventually out of phase 7 into more favorable phases. We also have the chance of the elusive -NAO setting up toward the end of February.  We still have the chance to get into a good pattern to close out winter strong.

We shall see, but I think you're going to bust hard on that one. I agree with everything else regarding winter not being over. 

Just curious...what makes you think we don't get anywhere near 70? Last February (maybe the 25th?) I hit 78 and had my family in the basement under a tornado warning...

Here's Eric Horst's take yesterday: (I realize that you're not south of I-76 like I am, but these temperature forecasts often bust LOW. )

* Wet and Increasingly Warm Pattern Developing *

11:00am Monday, February 12: The MU meteogram (below) shows the first 11 days of February featured seasonably cold temperatures, despite less than one inch of snowfall. Looking ahead, however, I see a dramatic shift in the jet stream pattern including a retreat of the Polar vortex, long-wave troughiness in the western US, and an almost Summer-like Bermuda high pressure developing along/off the East coast. The result will be a warming trend that may lead us to near record-high temperatures by the middle of next week. Hitting the low 70s is not out of the question sometime around February 21st or 22nd...and the record high for these dates is 73 and 69, respectively (both set in 1930). Before we crank up the warmth, we do have a couple of chilly days...with highs both today and Tuesday 38 - 44 degrees. Chilly high pressure will retreat the coast on Wednesday, and increasing southwesterly flow will advance warm, moist air our way. Unfortunately, I don't see a completely sunny, warm, and dry day in the late week as jet stream disturbances race through on fast flow. A period of rain Wednesday afternoon and night and another round of rain Thursday PM into Friday AM may bring another inch of rainfall (three-day total). But some peeks of sunshine are possible each day with Thursday midday the best chance for a few hours of sunshine and highs reaching the low 60s. Friday will begin warm, but a slow-moving front will bring a shallow press of chilly air for week's end. Saturday might actually be seasonably cool before Sunday marks the beginning of a long warming trend. Next week, then, may turn into one of the warmest third weeks of February on record as the Bermuda high pressure amplifies and increasingly warm air develops pretty much everywhere east of the Mississippi. While snow-covered areas along and north of the I-90 corridor will sustain low-level chill (high temps in the 40s), many locations from I-70/I-76 southward have a good chance of hitting the 70s! Of course, this kind of anomalous warmth can't last forever, especially given a completely snow covered Canada and largely ice-covered (69%) Great Lakes. Shallow cold air will inevitably nose back into the Commonwealth, but the large-scale pattern may continue to support warmer-than-normal conditions, in the mean, through month's end....and make for the least-snowy February since 2002. --Horst

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The current Nina we're in hasn't been a particularly strong one, generally in the weak to maybe the low edge of moderate category. The last 3 month running average (NDJ) was right at -1.0ºC. We're actually not in an official classified Nina yet, needing 5 consecutive three month average periods of -0.5ºC or more to be considered a full fledge episode. I'm sure that'll be official once Feb is over and DJF gets calculated as we're still running comparable nina conditions (-0.9ºC as of today). So from the ENSO perspective addressing the possible influence on March is probably a bit of a toss-up. We ran a weak Nina last winter too (although started earlier and went to neutral by late in the winter) and we had our big March snowstorm. There are a couple other positive March examples, like March 99. That was in the midst of a much stronger Nina episode. I was looking at the archived Penn State observation data and 1.5" the whole month of February turned into over 17" in the first 15 days of March that year via three separate events with the headliner being a March 14 Miller A that got most of our region and the whole LSV a pretty sizable snowstorm. I'm pretty sure H-burg saw at least the latter 2 of those events. Before March that winter as a whole was a much bleaker one overall for snow lovers than this one has been (record warm December, mixy January, not much snow in Feb).

So I guess what I'm getting at is we can definitely turn things around quick even in March and that I don't think the Nina is having an overbearing influence on this current winter other than maybe running a more progressive, northern stream dominated pattern. 

I think as I mentioned the other day, that the MJO is going to be a big key into the end game for late in the month and going into March. It wasn't a big key early in the winter as we didn't have the strong magnitude when it was cold in December/early Jan. I personally think this current, stronger MJO pulse can help facilitate a negative NAO IF we can maintain the stronger magnitude if/when it gets to phase 8. There has been some  signs of blocking showing up in the long range of the model guidance. With a pretty solidly negative PNA forecast to continue we could really use a negative NAO developing to help force a low zonal storm track across the country that doesn't cut us. The pattern over the Pacific itself (EPO, WPO) has still looked okay. I'd be careful when looking into the long range guidance (not that you shouldn't be leery to begin with), but it figures to be quite changeable as it sorts out what ultimately starts setting up pattern wise. So while I'm pessimistic about the rest of this month, or certainly the next 8-10 days that take us to the last week of the month.. I still maintain optimism in that the pattern will eventually get back into something that will give us some more chances. And if we do actually end up with a legitimate -NAO I think that can put the big storm option on the table as well. 

Thanks as always Mag.  Continuing to try to sort this meteo mess out in my mind, and to me the MJO has not proven to be a big driver....BUT to your point, if the EPO/AO and other indicies are not raging + or -, it would make sense that a strong push into 8 would have greater influence.  Obviously prooves that it is a delicate balance as to the main drivers working somewhat in tandem to get us a good pattern.  +Ao and neut/neg PNA is not good as we head into march, as the conus would be flooded w/ Pac air.  From what I say in wayoutthereville, it looks like we get some ridging in the Pac region.  that w/ a -NAO would definately work for us.  Keep us posted. 

Nut

[pasnownut]

55 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

We shall see, but I think you're going to bust hard on that one. I agree with everything else regarding winter not being over. 

Just curious...what makes you think we don't get anywhere near 70? Last February (maybe the 25th?) I hit 78 and had my family in the basement under a tornado warning...

Here's Eric Horst's take yesterday: (I realize that you're not south of I-76 like I am, but these temperature forecasts often bust LOW. )

* Wet and Increasingly Warm Pattern Developing *

11:00am Monday, February 12: The MU meteogram (below) shows the first 11 days of February featured seasonably cold temperatures, despite less than one inch of snowfall. Looking ahead, however, I see a dramatic shift in the jet stream pattern including a retreat of the Polar vortex, long-wave troughiness in the western US, and an almost Summer-like Bermuda high pressure developing along/off the East coast. The result will be a warming trend that may lead us to near record-high temperatures by the middle of next week. Hitting the low 70s is not out of the question sometime around February 21st or 22nd...and the record high for these dates is 73 and 69, respectively (both set in 1930). Before we crank up the warmth, we do have a couple of chilly days...with highs both today and Tuesday 38 - 44 degrees. Chilly high pressure will retreat the coast on Wednesday, and increasing southwesterly flow will advance warm, moist air our way. Unfortunately, I don't see a completely sunny, warm, and dry day in the late week as jet stream disturbances race through on fast flow. A period of rain Wednesday afternoon and night and another round of rain Thursday PM into Friday AM may bring another inch of rainfall (three-day total). But some peeks of sunshine are possible each day with Thursday midday the best chance for a few hours of sunshine and highs reaching the low 60s. Friday will begin warm, but a slow-moving front will bring a shallow press of chilly air for week's end. Saturday might actually be seasonably cool before Sunday marks the beginning of a long warming trend. Next week, then, may turn into one of the warmest third weeks of February on record as the Bermuda high pressure amplifies and increasingly warm air develops pretty much everywhere east of the Mississippi. While snow-covered areas along and north of the I-90 corridor will sustain low-level chill (high temps in the 40s), many locations from I-70/I-76 southward have a good chance of hitting the 70s! Of course, this kind of anomalous warmth can't last forever, especially given a completely snow covered Canada and largely ice-covered (69%) Great Lakes. Shallow cold air will inevitably nose back into the Commonwealth, but the large-scale pattern may continue to support warmer-than-normal conditions, in the mean, through month's end....and make for the least-snowy February since 2002. --Horst

GEFS for next Thurs

and GFS op run for same time.  Someones gonna bust bad.  Looks like hes taking the "hi road" with the OP run.  Good luck pal.

[Blizzard of 93]

It looks like this weekend may be looking more interesting for possible snow chances according to the overnight models.

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like this weekend may be looking more interesting for possible snow chances according to the overnight models.

But.....But.....didnt you get the memo......

 

ITS OVER!!!

this was being hinted at on sunday night and has been growing a a set of short wobbly legs.  6z is trying (off hour so we toss though....hehe). 

definately going to be long odds, but if we can time it right, we could sneak something in.

Looking at ensembles, it does appear that once further out in time, we may have the all too elusive -NAO trying to show up for the late season party.  While no guarantee as other indicies are not very cooperative, we at least lose some risk of cutters, and just need timing to be on our side.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like this weekend may be looking more interesting for possible snow chances according to the overnight models.

Hey, if it gets no where near 70 next week I WILL gladly admit that you were right!  (and I honestly hope you're right...I don't want that warmth right now)

My point is that it certainly can get that warm, we only have to go back to last year when it got into the upper 70s. 

There is this as well:

John Homenuk@jhomenuk

 

Meanwhile, as the pattern is in flux, ensembles continue to suggest *very* warm temperatures in the East. We could see some record warmth in these 5-day periods. #natgas likely to take a gut punch through 2/24.

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

But.....But.....didnt you get the memo......

 

ITS OVER!!!

this was being hinted at on sunday night and has been growing a a set of short wobbly legs.  6z is trying (off hour so we toss though....hehe). 

definately going to be long odds, but if we can time it right, we could sneak something in.

Looking at ensembles, it does appear that once further out in time, we may have the all too elusive -NAO trying to show up for the late season party.  While no guarantee as other indicies are not very cooperative, we at least lose some risk of cutters, and just need timing to be on our side.

 

There are a lot of people I would love to troll if we're shoveling a crap ton of snow in a few weeks...

[heavy_wx]

8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I think as I mentioned the other day, that the MJO is going to be a big key into the end game for late in the month and going into March. It wasn't a big key early in the winter as we didn't have the strong magnitude when it was cold in December/early Jan. I personally think this current, stronger MJO pulse can help facilitate a negative NAO IF we can maintain the stronger magnitude if/when it gets to phase 8. There has been some  signs of blocking showing up in the long range of the model guidance. With a pretty solidly negative PNA forecast to continue we could really use a negative NAO developing to help force a low zonal storm track across the country that doesn't cut us. The pattern over the Pacific itself (EPO, WPO) has still looked okay. I'd be careful when looking into the long range guidance (not that you shouldn't be leery to begin with), but it figures to be quite changeable as it sorts out what ultimately starts setting up pattern wise. So while I'm pessimistic about the rest of this month, or certainly the next 8-10 days that take us to the last week of the month.. I still maintain optimism in that the pattern will eventually get back into something that will give us some more chances. And if we do actually end up with a legitimate -NAO I think that can put the big storm option on the table as well. 

The GEFS has been showing the amplification of a ridge over the north Atlantic; this ridge starts to retrograde/build westward over Greenland by the 10-15 day time-frame. WIth that feature, it's then a question of how much does a trough from the tropospheric PV over Northern Canada build southeastward upstream of that ridge. That type of upper-level trough would allow for a better cold air source in the Northeast US. The operational GFS is also suggesting some strengthening of the subtropical jet around the 15-day time-frame, another factor that may give us more luck with storm chances.

In any case, March is often a relatively snowy month climatologically, especially in the northern and high-elevation portions of Central PA.