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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018


MAG5035

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26 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

of course after I posted that the fog went away and now there is .05-.1" ice on the trees - exposed pavement is just slush as my driveway may clear before the cold air moves in later.  Curious to see if conditions down around Valley Road are any different just with the slight elevation difference from where I am.

I'm told Valley road is good, just some of the side streets aren't so great in places.

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48 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Yep, you and Maytown stuck with it. 

 

Partially it was luck...but as JM1220 stated several times last evening, it's also just knowing climate around here. Take last March for example - most models weren't picking up on the warm air aloft pushing as far north and west off the ocean like it ended up doing. I've learned a lot over the years simply from remembering how these events play out, one big thing is that models (and I mean all of them) almost always overdue cold air leaving at the surface. BUT...they also grossly underplay warm air aloft. Horst was banging that point during the March storm last year. 

You see the same thing happen time after time, year after year, and you learn when to trust what models are showing, and when to ignore them and go by science and history. This was definitely one of those situations. 

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8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Isn't your ruler indicating 0.04" of ice, not four-tenths??

This is same ruler used to measure the inner tube of the SRG.  It can also be used to measure ice and snow.   Your are correct that if I were measuring liquid out of the tube it would be 0.04” but for snow and ice it would be 0.4”.   The 0.10” on ruler would be 1” of snow or ice etc.   

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48 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Partially it was luck...but as JM1220 stated several times last evening, it's also just knowing climate around here. Take last March for example - most models weren't picking up on the warm air aloft pushing as far north and west off the ocean like it ended up doing. I've learned a lot over the years simply from remembering how these events play out, one big thing is that models (and I mean all of them) almost always overdue cold air leaving at the surface. BUT...they also grossly underplay warm air aloft. Horst was banging that point during the March storm last year. 

You see the same thing happen time after time, year after year, and you learn when to trust what models are showing, and when to ignore them and go by science and history. This was definitely one of those situations. 

That storm taught me storms coming from the this direction are no bueno for anyone in CPA with marginal temps, warm air always races in.

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43 minutes ago, canderson said:

That storm taught me storms coming from the this direction are no bueno for anyone in CPA with marginal temps, warm air always races in.

One thing to look for is the track of the 850mb low. If that goes northwest of you, expect most of the precip to be non-snow because that means winds aloft will be southerly and bringing warm air in. The wild card in these systems is how hard the initial snow falls, sometimes it can hold the sleet at bay for a while but it rarely works out. When you see models printing big snow amounts but the mid level lows tracking NW of you, toss them in the trash. In this system, the 850 low looks to have tracked along the NY/PA border, which is where mixing started really holding down amounts. 

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I'm hoping for a late-season save much like last year...though I'm hoping the bar will be raised even higher this time around. Just have a gut feeling that things line up in early March for a blockbuster. We're not due...but I think it's gonna happen. By then wavelengths sharpen and there are signs of legitimate Greenland blocking. We get a nice juicy vort plowing into a stout block and we'll be celebrating Christmas all over again. 

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Melted down 1.13” of precip for this event which puts me at 6.51” the first 38 days of the year.  I can’t recall a wetter start to the year.  Too bad it wasn’t all snow.   

I just finished melting down everything and I came up with 0.65" total liquid.  Quite a bit less than you, Cash, but definitely more than MDT's area.

Total liquid YTD now = 4.15".

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45 minutes ago, canderson said:

Um, MDT says they had a .3” storm total.

WTF

I thought they would come in a little higher, & maybe they will at the final daily update overnight. They had a few hourly obs with snow, including 1 hour of .25 mile visibility. They also had to have some accumulation of sleet. 

I had around 2 inches or so of cement in Marysville, so I thought MDT would come in at least near 1 inch or so.

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37 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I thought they would come in a little higher, & maybe they will at the final daily update overnight. They had a few hourly obs with snow, including 1 hour of .25 mile visibility. They also had to have some accumulation of sleet. 

I had around 2 inches or so of cement in Marysville, so I thought MDT would come in at least near 1 inch or so.

You know, I misread his original post. I thought it said 1.3"...not 0.3". That seems too low. I don't have an official number but i was close to 1" and I'm 15 miles SE of the airport. They should have been at or above 1". 

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43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I thought they would come in a little higher, & maybe they will at the final daily update overnight. They had a few hourly obs with snow, including 1 hour of .25 mile visibility. They also had to have some accumulation of sleet. 

I had around 2 inches or so of cement in Marysville, so I thought MDT would come in at least near 1 inch or so.

There was about an inch on the ground when I left my motel in Camp Hill at 8:30am. You'd think MDT would have been similar.

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21 minutes ago, Voyager said:

There was about an inch on the ground when I left my motel in Camp Hill at 8:30am. You'd think MDT would have been similar.

With the storm on Super Bowl Sunday, they only showed a little over 2 inches at the 5pm update, but then adjusted it to 3 inches with the overnight update. Maybe they will do the same with this storm ?

PS, I have have enough of these cement type storms! The shoveling is brutal! I hope the next snow is cold powder.

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11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

With the storm on Super Bowl Sunday, they only showed a little over 2 inches at the 5pm update, but then adjusted it to 3 inches with the overnight update. Maybe they will do the same with this storm ?

PS, I have have enough of these cement type storms! The shoveling is brutal! I hope the next snow is cold powder.

Yeah, shoveling this stuff was brutal...

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