anotherman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 ZR in York New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 All sleet again, it’s loud in here. I undersestimated my snow total - looks like 2” of this slop so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Heavy snow really coming down, however dry punch in swpa has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i was looking at those south of us to get a feel for when the temps would rise and came to the same conclusion that it could be awhile. 2-3 this afternoon. How does radar look? radar looks wet - going to rain for several hours still. A ton of moisture still moving northward. With not losing much from Sunday with the sun not appearing until late yesterday and now the snow/sleet from this morning we are going to need upper levels to get several degrees above freezing for the rain to be warm enough to help get surface temps above freezing. They are not even close to that yet when looking at SPC's mesoanalysis page (like the speed of the warm up that the NAM had) but warm enough for these ptype changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Moderate sleet continues to fall just after 10:00AM, mixed with a little bit of freezing rain. I'd say 90/10 mix at the moment. Temperature holding steady at 28.0 degrees. I can't see how temps rise above freezing until at least mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Tons of precip yet to come. Also, no temp above 32 north of the M-D line at the moment. Even 30-32 down to BWI/DC. i just read somewhere that the cold air was dropping south, that it wasn't going to warm up soon. not sure how accurate that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i just read somewhere that the cold air was dropping south, that it wasn't going to warm up soon. not sure how accurate that is. What djr said a few posts ago I think will make all the difference. The longer it freezing rains, and the heavier that rain falls, the warmer the surface temps will gradually become. However, there is a CAD signature still present with this storm, and the CAD will mitigate some of the warming for a while, which will slow down the warm-up. It honestly wouldn't shock me if we stayed ZR for the majority of the storm until near the very end. I think the HRRR had the precip out of here before 7:00pm, with snow showers gradually moving back in on the very back edge of the precip shied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Heavy snow really coming down, however dry punch in swpa has my attention. Tip for ya buddy. Enjoy the +’s and don’t focus on the -‘s. Life gets much better real quick that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Oh and after 1” mostly zr down here as expected. Happy for central n northern crew. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Tip for ya buddy. Enjoy the +’s and don’t focus on the -‘s. Life gets much better real quick that way. Lol you know me, im okay with it shutting off little early, just didnt know by 1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Zr in Lititz. About a half inch to inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, skiier04 said: Pretty dang frustrating but not unexpected. I can’t think of a SWFE storm like this (and I experienced a good number) in State College that wasn’t mostly sleet with a little snow at the start and some ZR or rain at the end. You can almost lock it in as soon as it locks on the models. And as you guys can all see now, the snow maps were way too generous and underdid the warm air aloft. Always really dangerous to forecast much snow when the mid level lows go to your northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 So Tom Russell is a weenie, huh? A foot for State College? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I can’t think of a SWFE storm like this (and I experienced a good number) in State College that wasn’t mostly sleet with a little snow at the start and some ZR or rain at the end. You can almost lock it in as soon as it locks on the models. And as you guys can all see now, the snow maps were way too generous and underdid the warm air aloft. Always really dangerous to forecast much snow when the mid level lows go to your northwest. yeah it sounds like it outran the models, but at least you guys wont likely see any non freezing precip. I'm already teetering down here and will likely be toast in next hour or so. I thought track staying slightly under true central might save them from the dreaded mid level punch. As i was driving most of the morning, i was suprised and the periods of sleet and occasional catpaws still hitting my windshield well after transition to liquid had seeminly occurred. I hope were back at it after our next week to 10 days off. Come on SSW. Do your thing and do it quick.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Shortly after 11:00 AM my temperature continues to slowly rise and is now up to 29.8 degrees. The precip remained mostly sleet until about 10:30 when a gradual transition over to freezing rain began to take place. At this moment I'd say I'm now 90% ZR / 10% IP. Intensity of the precip is light to occasionally moderate. Wunder temps due south of here are no warmer than 32 degrees. Only locations at 33 or 34 are near Cumberland MD and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Still all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Still all snow here. If you taint, it will be briefly, and likely after best precip has gone through. Sit back drink a beer, smoke a stogey, make snow angels, whatevs.... Just enjoy it. I had you jackpoting and still think i may be close in my call. Precip to the NW doesnt look quite as intense, and to the east of you may be the only areas that do better (sullivan to poconos IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Ice accretion starting to add up here in hbg. Solid light zr for the past 45 mins, ideal icing conditions. With CAD we may end up with quite a bit more ice than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, anotherman said: So Tom Russell is a weenie, huh? A foot for State College? I see it every once in a while in the NYC area, but forecasters really shouldn't release model snow maps (That looked like model output, unless he's really that nuts). Although I can't think of one recent model that showed 12" for UNV (maybe a couple of the NAM runs that were clearly too high since they also showed more warmth aloft), many from even yesterday will bust high such as the Euro that had 6-8". I wasn't focusing much on this area since I live in the NYC area again, but I knew the 8-10" type calls for UNV were too high given the type of system. I was hopeful the front end could produce more before warming came in, but that didn't happen (and very rarely happens). Maybe IPT will end with 4 or 5" but the end result for I-80 and south will be a few inches of sleet with a crust of ice on top-nuisance unless freezing rain comes in sooner. Almost never fails. CTP was a little conservative in that area and looks to have paid off. Impact-wise, the southern part of the state will likely have more freezing rain and be worse off. State College is just a really tough area in the last 15 years to get any major snow amount events (major being over a foot). I think Jan 2016 may have done it, also 2/11/2010. The Valentine's Day 2007 storm was about a foot-I was there for that and again, that warm push aloft was way underestimated. Last March's storm may have come close but it was NW of the really heavy stuff on I-81. Today's run of the mill SWFE certainly ain't doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Ice accretion starting to add up here in hbg. Solid light zr for the past 45 mins, ideal icing conditions. With CAD we may end up with quite a bit more ice than forecast. Agreed! Latest Wunder temps are starting to show a few 33 degree readings just north of the M-D line south of us. Currently I'm at 30.4 degrees with moderate freezing rain and icicles forming everywhere. I don't think there is any sudden warm-up coming in the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If you taint, it will be briefly, and likely after best precip has gone through. Sit back drink a beer, smoke a stogey, make snow angels, whatevs.... Just enjoy it. I had you jackpoting and still think i may be close in my call. Precip to the NW doesnt look quite as intense, and to the east of you may be the only areas that do better (sullivan to poconos IMO). According to dual pol, it might already be non-snow in Williamsport? I think the jackpot areas will be along and mainly north of the NY border. Even BGM to ALB may have their snow cut down a decent bit by sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Precip has transitioned to light freezing rain/rain with temps right around 32ºF... a little bit of icing here and there but nothing really notable yet. Snow part of this storm was a solid disappointment here, technically I got 0.0" of actual snowfall. Precip started as sleet around 5-530 and stayed all sleet until about 1030-11. Measured 1.3" of pure sleet that's being encased with the rain now. The warm push further aloft must have been better than advertised to get things sleeting right off the bat. So yea was hoping for at least a good 3-4 incher before mixing and no such thing happened this time haha. On the bright side it's probably gonna take a week in the 70s to get rid of the glacier pack any time soon that's been established with all that sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just broke 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: According to dual pol, it might already be non-snow in Williamsport? I think the jackpot areas will be along and mainly north of the NY border. Even BGM to ALB may have their snow cut down a decent bit by sleet. My reference to jackpot was not best for storm, it was best for our region/subforum. We don’t follow/discuss NY. I learned a long time ago that you have to smell the rain for the best snows. Wmspt is that spot to me as they are far enough east and north to make my claim...right or wrong. That’s why I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Annnd back to sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Annnd back to sleet! best rates/lift is going on right now for you so its not surprising (ok....well a little bit ) I just went to Darrenkamps here in etown and look like i got hit by a supersoaker... no pellets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I'm hearing Coudersport and areas around there are without power and will be until possibly tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Ice continues to accrete everywhere, and is now quite visible on trees / shrubs. Temperature continues its very slow rise, now reading 31.3 degrees. I continue to think / wonder that the vast majority of remaining precipitation from this storm will be freezing and not liquid. There's less than 6 hours left for the storm, and the coastal / secondary is beginning to take over. That may halt any further warming aloft (and perhaps down here at the surface as well?). We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 looks like Dubois is back to snow....lp is on the move and likely northwestern fring folks may tansition back to white gold before it wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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