sauss06 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Looks like it wants to start snowing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Looks like it wants to start snowing right now. flurries here in northern Lanco. I've gotta overperform w/ my flurries today, cause I'll be stompin in my puddles tomorrow. Enjoy tomorrow....ya bugger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The 12z NAM looks really warm - 850s all the way to I80 it appears. That'd cut back the snow for the northern guys quite a bit I'd assume, since it'd flip over for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 16 hours ago, maytownpawx said: I would love what the 18z NAM and some other guidance is suggesting. Given a choice between 6" of fluff and 3"-4" of snow followed by an icy mixture, I'll take the latter for snow pack preservation. Not suggesting that it's fun to drive in nor am I looking forward to it from that standpoint, but I just received less than 2" of snow yesterday and I maintained 75% of it today because of the layer of ice. Had I received all snow, much of it would have been toast by now. I agree with others that having that high to the north and the easterly wind component helps keep me frozen longer. 15 hours ago, pasnownut said: I knew I liked you..... amen brother. Snowpack retention/preservation is everything to me. Yes! Up here, we don't often get ice on top of the snow...and the snow is often lake effect FLUFF. Fluff melts FAST, as there isn't much moisture in it. Lost over a foot of snow in 48 hours several times this winter. I remember living in New Holland back during the (I think it was February 2007?) sleet storm. We had 6 to 8 inches of sleet (mixed with snow) that froze into a glacier. That stuff lasted forever! Survived many days in the 40s and 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 With that qpf whatever falls will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, canderson said: The 12z NAM looks really warm - 850s all the way to I80 it appears. That'd cut back the snow for the northern guys quite a bit I'd assume, since it'd flip over for them. I am really interested in seeing what temps get up to today if this cloud cover hangs around most of the day. If we don't get much above the low 30s an initial burst of snow to rain tomorrow is going to be very messy with an already cold surface and not losing much of this ice covered snow around the region today. Models completely whiffed with the overnight lows last night which doesn't necessarily mean much but worth noting especially if highs end up off during the day today too. 12z NAM really does surge that warm air through the region which is making this very tough to predict - a degree or two difference at any level could determine what precip type occurs for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 44 minutes ago, canderson said: The 12z NAM looks really warm - 850s all the way to I80 it appears. That'd cut back the snow for the northern guys quite a bit I'd assume, since it'd flip over for them. Just looked. No different than the last 3 runs (since 18z yesterday). Lilkely noise, but keep wishing it away, and you'll likely win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, djr5001 said: I am really interested in seeing what temps get up to today if this cloud cover hangs around most of the day. If we don't get much above the low 30s an initial burst of snow to rain tomorrow is going to be very messy with an already cold surface and not losing much of this ice covered snow around the region today. Models completely whiffed with the overnight lows last night which doesn't necessarily mean much but worth noting especially if highs end up off during the day today too. 12z NAM really does surge that warm air through the region which is making this very tough to predict - a degree or two difference at any level could determine what precip type occurs for most. I'm not so sure the Nam has a total grasp on this storm. It's been struggling with this storm from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just looked. No different than the last 3 runs (since 18z yesterday). Lilkely noise, but keep wishing it away, and you'll likely win. They look further north for me - I want all snow. F ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 30 minutes ago, djr5001 said: I am really interested in seeing what temps get up to today if this cloud cover hangs around most of the day. If we don't get much above the low 30s an initial burst of snow to rain tomorrow is going to be very messy with an already cold surface and not losing much of this ice covered snow around the region today. Models completely whiffed with the overnight lows last night which doesn't necessarily mean much but worth noting especially if highs end up off during the day today too. 12z NAM really does surge that warm air through the region which is making this very tough to predict - a degree or two difference at any level could determine what precip type occurs for most. Go to the 700 panels and take a look. "Warmest" panel at 33 suggests mid levels are safe well below the MD line through duration of storm. We lose the lower levels, which could either be sleet, ZR or with best lift, can still be catpaws, or rimmed flakage. Yes, it will rain down my way, but anyone north/west of chambersburg/pottsville will likely stay some sort of frozen for a large part of the storm. Just my observations, and Mag or anyone who sees different can tell me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 here. I'll save you a little time dj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 And for all watching, my opinions are purley extrapolations of the NAM. Not how the storm plays out. Thats Mag's job. I post my opinions cause this is a weather discussion forum. Thats all. Williamsport will be the big winner IMO. I'll let you know how wrong i am as I'll be going through tomorrow night on the way to Tioga. Vrooommm Vrooommm. Goin snowmobiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 58 minutes ago, blackrock said: Yes! Up here, we don't often get ice on top of the snow...and the snow is often lake effect FLUFF. Fluff melts FAST, as there isn't much moisture in it. Lost over a foot of snow in 48 hours several times this winter. I remember living in New Holland back during the (I think it was February 2007?) sleet storm. We had 6 to 8 inches of sleet (mixed with snow) that froze into a glacier. That stuff lasted forever! Survived many days in the 40s and 50s. I remember it well. That ice was on the roads for a week and a half straight. towards the end, the "potholes" in the ice were brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS starts a pinch better down here, but still shows no love for Lanco (me)..... boooo Pa Watch, now that i know where Garden View PA is (i dated a gal from Mosquito Valley when at Penn College), your in the catbird seat buddy. Enjoy. Tell Rick Mahonsky i asked about him. Cool jewelry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 the swipe of good stuff on the GFS looks like it wants to bring that love into Northeast Cumberland county. But y'all know, i'm usually wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: the swipe of good stuff on the GFS looks like it wants to bring that love into Northeast Cumberland county. But y'all know, i'm usually wrong at 36, LP went from north of altoona at 6z to south of cumberland Md at 12z. IF that trend could continue, I'd think that based on sharp cutoff w/ SE gradient, that it would make a difference for those around and just north of the burg... heck maybe i get to keep some slush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: at 36, LP went from north of altoona at 6z to south of cumberland Md at 12z. IF that trend could continue, I'd think that based on sharp cutoff w/ SE gradient, that it would make a difference for those around and just north of the burg... heck maybe i get to keep some slush... I wouldn't be surprised if we see a slight SE trend Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Horst calling for a coating at the M/D line with amounts ramping up quickly moving north through the state. Up to 3" along the Pike, up to 8" in Central PA, and over 8" up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 43 minutes ago, pawatch said: I wouldn't be surprised if we see a slight SE trend Nut. If we had a HP holding in northern NY state, I'd be giddy, as CAD would be stonger, and I'd be more white than wet, and those to the north of me would get a powder bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Companies have a tough choice tomorrow - do you close entirely? Delays won't make much sense and it'll just get worse as the day goes on. I assume all schools cancel tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, canderson said: Companies have a tough choice tomorrow - do you close entirely? Delays won't make much sense and it'll just get worse as the day goes on. I assume all schools cancel tonight. ****. Who you kidding? State employees are off. Private sector? "Take a few extra minutes to drive safely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: ****. Who you kidding? State employees are off. Private sector? "Take a few extra minutes to drive safely." Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Looking at the 12z guidance so far it seems things have been trending towards a bit more robust at warming 850mb the last couple runs, and having a look at a couple model generated skew-T's it appears generally the most warming occurs between 800-900mb (roughly 4-6k feet). 925mb holds in pretty strong over most of the region except the southern tier with temps in the central counties at that layer staying solidly below 0ºC for a majority (best QPF part) of the event. I look at that layer in these mix scenarios to make a determination of whether or not sleet may be a more predominant p-type vs freezing rain. 925mb is at about 3000ft or so. GFS column is not as warm as the NAM's, specifically at the aforementioned 850mb layer. I think any warning level ice that crops up will be confined to a section encompassing the Laurels and south-central ridge tops below oh roughly US route 22 and west/NW of I-81. CTP extended their watches in a thin zone south from the original area early this morning to reflect this possibility of warning ice (0.25" or so). This is going to be tough to pinpoint transition timing and how much transition occurs in any one area. We don't have an ideal CAD setup but we certainly have enough of one that we probably aren't going to see low level cold (up to 925mb) routed out given a pretty weak surface low. I think we'll be dealing with a majority frozen/freezing event and not much plain rain except for maybe the mason dixon line and SW PA. I've seen this song and dance before plenty of times with stronger storm systems. For south central and LSV precip rates are going to be important in determining whether those region get up to several inches of snow before mixing. Should be a pretty heavy slug of precip that comes through, and like I said yesterday the damage could get done before it changes... as in the transition doesn't occur for a big chunk of the region until precip lightens. At any rate, use caution when consulting p-type maps and snowfall maps.. especially the TT ones as they incorporate sleet with their 10:1 maps. Euro's up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Hows NCPA looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: ****. Who you kidding? State employees are off. Private sector? "Take a few extra minutes to drive safely." 24 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Truth. yup, that's how it'll go. And if you can't make it, take a PTO day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: ****. Who you kidding? State employees are off. Private sector? "Take a few extra minutes to drive safely." That's not how we roll here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 LWX puts warnings out for bordering counties for .25 to .50” freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, sauss06 said: yup, that's how it'll go. And if you can't make it, take a PTO day. Used to surprise me....now nothing does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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