Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

[canderson]

Tuesday-Wednesday setup reminds me of what we just had, but with heavier snow north. 

[pasnownut]

GFS is a nail biter for me....but I hope its just runnin a little fever....

for the rest of y'all....enjoy!!

 

 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

GFS looks a little better.  Keep low across southern pa to about Allentown.

NAM, went the wrong way and ping pongs LP through southern tier of PA.  

Toggling around through the panels, It looks to me like that a similar evolution of who snows, who taints, and who rains is similar to yesterday.  We need a nice jog south for southern crew.  Think were outta time, but hey, I'd LOVE to be wrong.  Wouldnt take a huge leap to at least keep us southeastern folks more white than wet.

540 nudged ever so slightly SE, but LP placement on GFS jumped 100 miles due north, flooding mid levels again.  IF 12z smoothes out and LP is back south, I think we'd be alright down here. 

NAM needs to step away from the coffee....and I'd think 12z runs should start to shed a better light for the "nest"

Yea the NAM in the last couple runs has become the western-most model, but given the range we're in it could be a case of the NAM being the NAM. This system is a bit different than yesterday's. It's def a more classic decent winter storm scenario for our region, a low coming out of the Tenn Valley with a good Gulf fetch.. but we'll have to sort out the details of track and still have another full cycle most likely before we have a solid idea where we stand. We don't have any interference from the Great Lakes and it does appear that we will have a half decent high to the north for this system. The high will be retreating some but it should hold in some decent cold for I what feel what could be more ice/sleet issues than plain rain if the low in fact comes back a little northwest. 12z GFS looks a tad north and warmer. The TT snowmap wrecks about the whole subforum but there's def some p-type issues in the south central and LSV. The low still goes mostly to the south (barely) of the Mason-Dixon. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea the NAM in the last couple runs has become the western-most model, but given the range we're in it could be a case of the NAM being the NAM. This system is a bit different than yesterday's. It's def a more classic decent winter storm scenario for our region, a low coming out of the Tenn Valley with a good Gulf fetch.. but we'll have to sort out the details of track and still have another full cycle most likely before we have a solid idea where we stand. We don't have any interference from the Great Lakes and it does appear that we will have a half decent high to the north for this system. The high will be retreating some but it should hold in some decent cold for I what feel what could be more ice/sleet issues than plain rain if the low in fact comes back a little northwest. 12z GFS looks a tad north and warmer. The TT snowmap wrecks about the whole subforum but there's def some p-type issues in the south central and LSV. The low still goes mostly to the south (barely) of the Mason-Dixon. 

Yeah man.  It is a better setup.  I just dont like seeing that HP scooting so quickly NE.  At least for MBY antecedent cold and SE of the mountains is not usually a great spot to be in.  My hope is the HP and associated cold hangs a little tougher. 

I dont mind taint after a front end thump (boy that can sound really bad if taken the wrong way  ), but sleet is a snow pack densifier....hehe.

state college to NEPA look to be best spots once again.  WMSPTWX should also have nothing to complain about, other than shoveling....just ribbin ya man.

 

 

  

[Cashtown_Coop]

With the glacier of a snowpack now, I believe this will help hold the low level cold air in place better than models can predict. This won’t help the layers above but something to watch 

 

 

[canderson]

CTP saying 1-2" then up to .1" in sleet/zr for HBG S/SE. Eric Horst agrees. 

[Voyager]

I sure hope my new company sends me to Viginia on Wednesday, but with my luck, it'll be Albany...

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I sure hope my new company sends me to Viginia on Wednesday, but with my luck, it'll be Albany...

Any issues making it into town last night? Is your new firm based in HBG proper or in one of the billions of trucking centers in Carlisle?

[Voyager]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Any issues making it into town last night? Is your new firm based in HBG proper or in one of the billions of trucking centers in Carlisle?

Got in an hour late, and I'm based out of Camp Hill.

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Got in an hour late, and I'm based out of Camp Hill.

Fun. Saturday some jackass was turning his daycab onto Market from 32nd St and misjudged his turn and blocked the entire intersection up for about 20 minutes. We ended up having to all get out and start backing cars up so he could straighten out. 

I didn't think of you LOL. 

[Itstrainingtime]

47 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP saying 1-2" then up to .1" in sleet/zr for HBG S/SE. Eric Horst agrees. 

His tweet this morning was 1"-3" from south to north across Lancaster county. Extrapolating...HBG might get more than 3".

[djr5001]

602
WWUS41 KCTP 051940
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
240 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018



PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-053-058-060945-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0300Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Columbia-Schuylkill-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys,
Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg,
State College, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte,
Lock Haven, Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Berwick, and Pottsville
240 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches
  or more are possible over all of the watch area. Minor ice
  accumulations are also possible, mainly south of I-80.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during both the morning and evening commutes on
  Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter
weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

[2001kx]

I think it may be the first of the year for me?

 

Winter Storm Watch Weather Updated: Feb 05 2:41PM Issued by the National Weather Service For Clearfield County, Pennsylvania WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4AM EST WED UNTIL 10PM EST WED ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WATCH AREA. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND REVIEW WINTER WEATHER SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/WINTER. &&

[canderson]

49 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

His tweet this morning was 1"-3" from south to north across Lancaster county. Extrapolating...HBG might get more than 3".

D'oh you're right - I thought I had read 2. Still time to get this more of a snow-only storm - MAG is going to bring this home!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, 2001kx said:

I think it may be the first of the year for me?

 

Winter Storm Watch Weather Updated: Feb 05 2:41PM Issued by the National Weather Service For Clearfield County, Pennsylvania WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4AM EST WED UNTIL 10PM EST WED ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WATCH AREA. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND REVIEW WINTER WEATHER SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/WINTER. &&

thats awesome bud.  Been a while since we've see one of them.  I'm guessing they are not looking at the 18z 3k NAM which gets most of Lanco into 4"+ (and so does the 12k, but its not as far south w/ snow line.  Still enough time to get a little better....or worse for me.  This on is a lock for true central.  Enjoy once again gang.  Glad for yas.  Win for me down here is 3".  Its gonna be close...even if it gets washed away again :(.

 

[MAG5035]

43 minutes ago, canderson said:

D'oh you're right - I thought I had read 2. Still time to get this more of a snow-only storm - MAG is going to bring this home!

I hope so haha, although it looks like 2001kx and wsptwx are in the best places for the heaviest accumulation and mostly all snow event. I'm just to the south of the initial watch area that got put up. Looking good though for several inches and probably some sleet/zr as things stand right now. LSV is def going to be the most vulnerable to mixing and changeover but it would appear there's the potential for several inches in most of that region too on the initial thump of snow. The high to the north is going to be a big help even though its retreating some as the low pushes toward the region. But, it should be pretty strong (modeled at about 1038-1040) so I think even if the low track doesn't change too much from the general consensus the thermal column may eventually be realized to be a bit colder (esp below 850mb) and support at least a longer period of frozen precip. The NAM for instance is the furthest west with the low trying to come up into SW PA but never really does as it starts trying to go underneath translating towards the coast. I haven't seen the 12z Euro.. AccuPro is down attm so if anyone saw it feel free to chime in haha. At any rate, the slug of precip coming out of the Tenn Valley figures to be heavy as well so the damage may well be done before changeover occurs outside of possibly the far southern tier which will be the most vulnerable to changeover. 

[Superstorm]

thats awesome bud.  Been a while since we've see one of them.  I'm guessing they are not looking at the 18z 3k NAM which gets most of Lanco into 4"+ (and so does the 12k, but its not as far south w/ snow line.  Still enough time to get a little better....or worse for me.  This on is a lock for true central.  Enjoy once again gang.  Glad for yas.  Win for me down here is 3".  Its gonna be close...even if it gets washed away again .
 

IN-situ CAD looks better and winds more east then southeast than last storm. Not sure if that makes a difference but may help upper levels stay colder longer.


.

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

IN-situ CAD looks better and winds more east then southeast than last storm. Not sure if that makes a difference but may help upper levels stay colder longer.


.

No doubt it helps but if that HP would just camp out a bit we’d be golden down here. CAD is often undermodeled so maybe we score a little more frozen than currently modeled. Looks like a fun week ahead the further north you are. 

[pasnownut]

49 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I hope so haha, although it looks like 2001kx and wsptwx are in the best places for the heaviest accumulation and mostly all snow event. I'm just to the south of the initial watch area that got put up. Looking good though for several inches and probably some sleet/zr as things stand right now. LSV is def going to be the most vulnerable to mixing and changeover but it would appear there's the potential for several inches in most of that region too on the initial thump of snow. The high to the north is going to be a big help even though its retreating some as the low pushes toward the region. But, it should be pretty strong (modeled at about 1038-1040) so I think even if the low track doesn't change too much from the general consensus the thermal column may eventually be realized to be a bit colder (esp below 850mb) and support at least a longer period of frozen precip. The NAM for instance is the furthest west with the low trying to come up into SW PA but never really does as it starts trying to go underneath translating towards the coast. I haven't seen the 12z Euro.. AccuPro is down attm so if anyone saw it feel free to chime in haha. At any rate, the slug of precip coming out of the Tenn Valley figures to be heavy as well so the damage may well be done before changeover occurs outside of possibly the far southern tier which will be the most vulnerable to changeover. 

From my view Euro freebie still shows LP stayin largely below MD line. I may be wrong though. 

[Storm Clouds]

Does the NAM pick up on CAD better than GFS...18z NAM was warning criteria snow all the way down in these parts! 

[2001kx]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I hope so haha, although it looks like 2001kx and wsptwx are in the best places for the heaviest accumulation and mostly all snow event. I'm just to the south of the initial watch area that got put up. Looking good though for several inches and probably some sleet/zr as things stand right now. LSV is def going to be the most vulnerable to mixing and changeover but it would appear there's the potential for several inches in most of that region too on the initial thump of snow. The high to the north is going to be a big help even though its retreating some as the low pushes toward the region. But, it should be pretty strong (modeled at about 1038-1040) so I think even if the low track doesn't change too much from the general consensus the thermal column may eventually be realized to be a bit colder (esp below 850mb) and support at least a longer period of frozen precip. The NAM for instance is the furthest west with the low trying to come up into SW PA but never really does as it starts trying to go underneath translating towards the coast. I haven't seen the 12z Euro.. AccuPro is down attm so if anyone saw it feel free to chime in haha. At any rate, the slug of precip coming out of the Tenn Valley figures to be heavy as well so the damage may well be done before changeover occurs outside of possibly the far southern tier which will be the most vulnerable to changeover. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

I would love what the 18z NAM and some other guidance is suggesting. Given a choice between 6" of fluff and 3"-4" of snow followed by an icy mixture, I'll take the latter for snow pack preservation. Not suggesting that it's fun to drive in nor am I looking forward to it from that standpoint, but I just received less than 2" of snow yesterday and I maintained 75% of it today because of the layer of ice. Had I received all snow, much of it would have been toast by now. 

I agree with others that having that high to the north and the easterly wind component helps keep me frozen longer. 

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I would love what the 18z NAM and some other guidance is suggesting. Given a choice between 6" of fluff and 3"-4" of snow followed by an icy mixture, I'll take the latter for snow pack preservation. Not suggesting that it's fun to drive in nor am I looking forward to it from that standpoint, but I just received less than 2" of snow yesterday and I maintained 75% of it today because of the layer of ice. Had I received all snow, much of it would have been toast by now. 

I agree with others that having that high to the north and the easterly wind component helps keep me frozen longer. 

I knew I liked you.....

amen brother. Snowpack retention/preservation is everything to me. 

[Blizzard of 93]

32 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I would love what the 18z NAM and some other guidance is suggesting. Given a choice between 6" of fluff and 3"-4" of snow followed by an icy mixture, I'll take the latter for snow pack preservation. Not suggesting that it's fun to drive in nor am I looking forward to it from that standpoint, but I just received less than 2" of snow yesterday and I maintained 75% of it today because of the layer of ice. Had I received all snow, much of it would have been toast by now. 

I agree with others that having that high to the north and the easterly wind component helps keep me frozen longer. 

The 18z NAM 3k & 12k, the GFS & the RGEM all have the LSV in 3-6 inch range with the higher amounts toward the I-81 corridor & the lesser amounts towards southern York & Lancaster. The high to the north of us & a good flow of precip from the southwest should help to provide a good front end thump for most of us. 

Hopefully this trends more toward a snow only event, because shoveling this stuff from yesterday was no fun. It was like lifting cement!

 

 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Storm Clouds said:

Does the NAM pick up on CAD better than GFS...18z NAM was warning criteria snow all the way down in these parts! 

in situs like this the GFS tends to run a bit warm, and the NAM overamps systems and throws out totals that are a little high.

[Itstrainingtime]

Total QPF from Wednesday's system looks to be quite healthy...perhaps around 1" or so along the southern tier counties. Changeover time is going to be crucial as every hour that is delayed could impact snow amounts. 

[pawatch]

crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy

 

Should "surprise" and should "overperform". Think guidance and forecasts will play catch up with this one as we go...in spite of already being on the significant side. Let's see it all initialize off of the stronger states & see how they trend (not track, intensity)

7:34 PM - Feb 5, 2018

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z models show that most of our region looks to be in great shape for snow on Wednesday. The I-81 corridor & northwest from there again seems to be the best place for the most snow. 

The Euro & the NAM have the Harrisburg area at around 3 inches, while the GFS has near 6 inches of snow before the changeover to a mix.

[2001kx]

Picked up about 1.5"  so far this morning.

[canderson]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
357 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

PAZ026>028-050-056-057-059-063-062200-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0010.180207T0800Z-180208T0000Z/
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown,
Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
357 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches, and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
  inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and ice will result in difficult
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on
  Wednesday. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.