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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted
4 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Temps near the freezing mark made for a pleasant early morning walk today. 

Much doom in gloom seems to exist here on the boards the past 24 hours as much of the long-range modeling has taken a decided turn for the worse. 

 

Not necessarily all of it but the Euro EPS long range in particular has been getting the most attention for gloom and doom as it takes away the Pac ridge and sends the US into a high zonal flow with low heights over Canada and high heights over the US. That's my understanding of it anyways...I don't have individual EPS guidance but do have access to the 15 day Euro control run which is derived from the ensemble guidance, and it does show this scenario in the long range. The Euro may be right, but I'm not lending any extra confidence in it as I don't really feel it has been any better in the LR than the GFS this winter. I think the GFS/GEFS is more reasonable right now. That has generally been maintaining some degree of western US/Pac ridging and this pattern has been a pretty persistent theme this winter so it's going to have to prove otherwise that it can break down that quickly after getting established. But GFS/GEFS LR has been changeable too, so we'll have to watch how it evolves as we work into the first week or so of Feb. It was only a few days ago that models had some ridiculous cold set to invade the northern and eastern US and they have all seemed to back off from that to a certain degree. But that's not necessarily a bad thing as being in a tundra airmass isn't conducive to good snows either. At any rate I will say if the favorable Pac ridging is taken away in that manner( via Euro EPS), than yea we will see a much more hostile environment for winter weather regardless of what the MJO does... as the EPO regime has shown to be in the driver seat for our sensible weather in the absence of a supportive NAO. 

Speaking of the MJO, I've seen more of the dynamic model guidance have that index mired more into Phase 7.. either starting a loop within it (latest GFS).. or fading slowly towards the circle instead of continuing to race towards Phase 8. If one looks at the JFM temp maps, you'll see phase 7 still has a moderate correlation to somewhat above average temps and eastern ridging. I think if there's any sign of this teleconnection having any influence on us in the short-medium range, it may be storm track. Phase 7 can leave us vulnerable to cutting storms and I have noticed that in the medium range of both the GFS and Euro that the ensuing system(s) after Sun/Mon are looking a bit inside for some of C-PA's liking in terms of a clean snow storm. Certainly inside for any of the Mid-Atlantic gangs liking. Even the Sun/Mon system has evolved in recent runs to more of a northern branch system or potential miller B where the northern low goes northwest of PA. We can still get a decent event from that provided the storm doesn't wind up too much and drive up a lot of warm air via southerly flow, as we do have a moisture fetch from the Gulf for a change. Any kind of a coastal transfer would help too. There's little or no high support to the north though, so were riding a fine line. 

At any rate, still plenty of potential for a good month of February, I mean we are only just beginning the month today... but a lot of questions still as well. One thing I've learned about the MJO is it can be an influence but it's certainly not been any kind of holy grail. In the meantime we'll take things one system at a time.. and we have one on the table D3-4.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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20 minutes ago, pawatch said:

This will really troll you Nut.

image.jpg

Yeah thats perty, but the problem w/ the ICON is that progression in last few runs has been NW (as depicted on 12z run.  I'm still in but by the hair on my chinny chin chin....and I keep the goat closely shaven.....

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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47 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

CMC still loves MBY, but also ticks NW. 

If the Canadien verifies what its showing for next week, i will fly the maple leaf flag for a the rest of winter. 

OOHHHH   CAN A DAAAAAAA!!!!

 

Dont tell Voyager, but hes gonna get smoked....

And Wmsptwx I do believe. I think longitude might be even better than latitude. We'll see I guess. 

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Voyager

Voyager

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

CMC still loves MBY, but also ticks NW. 

If the Canadien verifies what its showing for next week, i will fly the maple leaf flag for a the rest of winter. 

OOHHHH   CAN A DAAAAAAA!!!!

 

Dont tell Voyager, but hes gonna get smoked....

Too late...lol

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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12z Euro manages to rip a thin stripe of 6"+ (10-1 map) right up 81 through H-burg through NE PA with a pretty intense slug of precip that runs through between 78-84 hr. Thermal profile is doable but marginal. Harrisburg is riding near the 850 and 925mb 0ºC line. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

12z Euro manages to rip a thin stripe of 6"+ (10-1 map) right up 81 through H-burg through NE PA with a pretty intense slug of precip that runs through between 78-84 hr. Thermal profile is doable but marginal. Harrisburg is riding near the 850 and 925mb 0ºC line. 

I only have freebie access....

and you know what I'm gonna ask??

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
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Latest updated disco from CTP...

Today`s medium range guidance very similar to previous in large
scale features. Mean upper trough axis will remain across the
central U.S. with several shortwaves rounding base of the trough
and affecting PA. The first one comes Sunday with another timed
for the middle of next week. Primary low with Sunday system is
progged to track west/northwest of PA with a weak secondary low
passing off the Mid Atlantic coast. GEFS/ECMWF coming into
better agreement on keeping light to moderate precip all snow
across most of central Pa. Trend today is for southeastern
counties to remain colder with less of a rain/snow mix for PA.
Parts of central and north central PA will see a plowable
snowfall Sunday and Sunday evening before the system exits east
and cold NW lake effect regime sets in on Monday.

 

(Sorry for appearance...can't edit it to look normal like it does in the editor)


 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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Arctic Air & Storm Threats....But a Big Snow Storm Unlikely *

 

2:30pm Thursday, February 2:
February is shaping up to be active given a fast, energetic jet stream pattern and plenty of Arctic air in place across Canada--A great set up for snow lovers in Lancaster, right? Not quite.

The missing ingredient is downstream blocking to lock cold air into southeastern and southcentral PA as warm, moist air attacks with an advancing low pressure system. Without such blocking, the more common outcome in the Lancaster area will be "wintry mix" and snow changing to ice and/or rain.

Upcoming we have three storm systems on the way over the next 7 days...and none are likely to bring us heavy snowfall. First up is tonight's low pressure and Arctic front--a period of evening rain will end as a brief period of wet snow or a snow shower after midnight, perhaps yielding a coating to an inch on some hills around the region. Rapidly falling temps late tonight will result in areas of black ice early Friday. With temps holding in the 20s (and wind chills in the teens) Friday it will be a cold day! Saturday will be cold and dry, but less windy, with sun giving way to increasing high clouds.

The next storm will arrive Sunday with some Gulf moisture (and warm air) attacking the retreating Arctic air over the Commonwealth. With an inland track almost directly over us, however, this will be a snow changing to sleet and rain event in Lancaster. Some accumulation is possible before the change to rain in the afternoon, but it's parts of central and northern PA that have the best chance for 4+ inches. Of course, a shift in the storm track could somewhat change the outcome here, so follow my Twitter feed Friday into Saturday for updates.

A cold, dry Monday will set the stage for another moist storm heading our way Tuesday into Wednesday. Once again, without downstream blocking...I expect a low pressure track across PA...and snow changing to rain the likely outcome here. It's like Déjà vu all over again. --Horst

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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Posted

CTP seems very confident with our snow chances for those of us back near I-81. We will be right on the line here in the Harrisburg area between a chance of 4-6 inches of snow like the Euro & its Control run showed today or 1 to 2 inches of slop.

Here is to a getting all of CTP into the all snow zone ! We still have 2 more days for positive colder trends.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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55 minutes ago, canderson said:

Models not kind to Sunday’s storm - ouch. 

Yea overnight models were kind of a flop, more emphasis on the northern branch low that goes NW or through PA. Just a messy evolution overall and progressive. We're now talking more Sunday during the day into part of Sun night for this thing now. The result could be yet another situation where downsloping would minimize QPF in the central counties between the Alleghenies and LSV/Poconos region. The LSV could be in the same boat too with a QPF minimum if the precip from the southern wave didn't get up into the region far enough as they would have to rely on what would make it across PA via the likely shield of light-moderate snow associated with the northern wave.   Surface-925mb temp layer could be more of an issue than the rest of the column, sort of like yesterdays minor thing... especially if we don't get good precip rates. We need these two system to interact some (but not too much) and pop a secondary to the coast to get a fairly organized slug of precip through the region and enough marginal cold to keep it mostly snow. Overnight models seemed to have went backwards a bit on that front. The NAM was probably a bit extreme with the precip hole it had. Still a couple days to go though and we're just starting to get the energy for this arriving into the NW US, so another full model cycle should start making this more clear. 

Briefly mentioning the following system that has been pretty well progged for mid week. Latest GFS and Canadian now have it sliding underneath PA coming from the TN Valley, while Euro (for now) keeps a western PA/eastern lakes cutter. This one might have some potential if the low track stays underneath us. It may have front end overrunning potential anyways even if it took a Euro track. Just a more traditional looking system right now with no interference from a Great Lakes low. Theme this year has been progressive, so we'll see if the Euro joins the rest of the models (it wouldn't be the first time this year). 

Sidenote about the whole precip hole thing.. I'm used to getting some of my precip eaten by the Allegheny front where I live but it has been more of a theme than usual this year... and it's a five minute drive up the road from my house at 1300' to the top of the mountain at around 2500' so I still see some of the extra snowfall. The next valley over in State College has really been lacking in the snow department considering the generally cold winter we've had. The Climo Data I saw for State College has them currently at 11.9" for the season (compared to about 18" here so far), good for 100th snowiest out of 123 so far. Season average is around 45" up there and about 50" or so here closer to the Alleghenies. There's definitely some work to be done to get to snow climo in this part of central PA.

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