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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018


MAG5035

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I'm hoping I don't end up in this sucker hole between the weakening clipper (and associated downscoping off the Alleghenies) and the developing coastal low that has been depicted on most operational guidance. Bedford County to the south of me would be lucky to see an inch much less an advisory on the GFS, 3K NAM, or Euro. SREF's look better but still show the same weakness. Ratios should be pretty decent in the better snows that are supposed to develop in the Sus Valley. 700 lift isn't too strong but it's pretty widespread and corresponds to the lower end of the DGZ temp wise (generally -10 to 12ºC). Advisory totals should be pretty easily attainable. 

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45 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

would guess around 2" so far and still snowing.

Light snow falling currently. There's been pretty much a dusting of accumulation overnight as snow has been more off than on. Looks like radar is starting to solidify more down this way. 

Surprised CTP didn't add the rest of their NW counties to the advisory since it seems Clearfield, Elk, etc have been in some decent bursts of snow overnight. They have added the central counties to it, likely on trends from the near term guidance such as the HRRR and RAP, which in the overnight runs have been pretty robust with developing a solid shield of snow over the central counties later this morning. 

The frontal system has been a bit better than originally advertised with somewhat slower movement and better precip. My uncle from Paducah, KY ended up with several inches of snow from this system, with 4-7" pretty common looking at the reports in that region. I don't believe very much snow was expected there originally from what I understand. Looking at Paducah's AFD during the day yesterday they were thinking up to 1-2" and then eventually had to upgrade to winter storm warnings early Monday eve (4" is criteria down there) when a lot of 4+ reports started coming in with snow still going. I guess we'll see if this overachieving translates up this way today. Ratios in the stronger bands will be something to consider, as we could get some extra fluff factor. 

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Woke up to about a quarter inch so far here in Tamaqua. The snow, while light in intensity, was a bit heavier than I thought it would be at this point in time. I was expecting not much more than some very light pixie dust, but at least for now it's light and steady with what looks like decent sized flakes. That may change during the day, and the "blob", for lack of a better term, over Schuylkill County may shift east to where we see a lull in the action for a bit. Time will tell...

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m shocked that there are not more school closings in the LSV this morning. Light snow already falling & it should only increase as the day goes on. They must be worried about adjusting too many days off later in the school calendar. 

Up this way, most of them announced their closings last night already.

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m shocked that there are not more school closings in the LSV this morning. Light snow already falling & it should only increase as the day goes on. They must be worried about adjusting too many days off later in the school calendar. 

Me too...guessing that the snow didn't start early enough?

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