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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018


MAG5035

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  On 2/28/2018 at 9:05 PM, maytownpawx said:

61 here right now. I've almost forgotten what winter weather feels like, and I'm not the least bit happy. Having said that, it surely appears as if some people not too far away might get blasted in the next 48 hours. Will be fun to watch unfold at the very least...

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WSW for tioga.  6+.  18zs continue the trend, and have shifted precip south again.  Couple more ticks and WSPTwx will be eating his own crow pie on friday.  Not sure how much move is left, but very few models/peeps saw this coming, so I'd be cautious in speaking in absolutes for a little while.  Im largely out, but as usual, its fun to watch.  Thats why I'm here :).

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High wind watch

PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066-011630-
/O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0001.180302T0600Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
326 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a High
Wind Watch, which is in effect from late tonight through Friday
evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this evening and could gust to 60
  mph later tonight and all of Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel may be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

 

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Just have a few minutes before meetings, but it looks like NAO is starting to show influence on some of the models.  Evolution still wonky to me, but there are several opps at some notable events in the next 2 weeks.  Not sure how it plays out, but March looks to roar.  Will be fun way to finish out my trackin for the year. 

Goin shopping for new curtains for the cave this weekend as its almost that time..... :weep:

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  On 3/1/2018 at 1:04 PM, canderson said:

High wind watch

PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066-011630-
/O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0001.180302T0600Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
326 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a High
Wind Watch, which is in effect from late tonight through Friday
evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this evening and could gust to 60
  mph later tonight and all of Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel may be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

 

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my statement about CTP was because of any accums of snow beyond a couple inches would be damaging with the projected winds.  While our region seems to be somewhat "safe" from that (except fringe regions), it still should be stated for cautions sake.  Northern tier to poconos could be trouble though.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 1:07 PM, pasnownut said:

my statement about CTP was because of any accums of snow beyond a couple inches would be damaging with the projected winds.  While our region seems to be somewhat "safe" from that (except fringe regions), it still should be stated for cautions sake.  Northern tier to poconos could be trouble though.

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them and places in NY could have some serious issues.

I actually believe we will have some issues in the Harrisburg area tomorrow with wind. I wouldn't say i'm worried, but i do have some concern. For whatever reason, we have really been getting decent wind events. It was just like 2 weeks ago when we had strong winds overnight that had everything blown all over hells creation. And now, the ground is saturated. We'll see i guess. 

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  On 3/1/2018 at 1:41 PM, sauss06 said:

them and places in NY could have some serious issues.

I actually believe we will have some issues in the Harrisburg area tomorrow with wind. I wouldn't say i'm worried, but i do have some concern. For whatever reason, we have really been getting decent wind events. It was just like 2 weeks ago when we had strong winds overnight that had everything blown all over hells creation. And now, the ground is saturated. We'll see i guess. 

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Yeah, agreed.  Southern tier to central/east central ny could get shellacked with snow.  

this snow is going to be heavy/wet, and with saturated ground, it would likely increase the potential for damage.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 2:59 PM, sauss06 said:
****, i just realized my daughter flys out of BWI tomorrow to fly into Chicago. I wonder how that will affect her


That takeoff will be pretty interesting to say the least. What time does she fly out? Winds after sunrise will be mixing very efficiently. Gusts into 40’s and 50’s likely by 10am-Noon


.
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  On 3/1/2018 at 5:04 PM, canderson said:

Do the extreme strong gusts (ie over 40) die off Friday evening (say 8ish) or am I misreading that? I know it'll still be very windy and gusty, but the 50+ mph winds are what I'm looking for.

 

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7 and 10pm tomorrow evening...my guess would be the extreme gusts reaching 50+ should be dying off, but look at the low strength and position...978 at 0Z and 976 at 03Z, so still strengthening while it continues to be pushed southward, but also a bit eastward by 03Z.

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.pngsfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

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