Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

[MAG5035]

New thread rolling to kick off the new year.

Some thoughts on the impending coastal storm...

While this coastal is poised to largely miss our region, I do think at least some of our far Lower Sus valley folks stand a chance of seeing a period of snow as this storm lifts up. 18z and now 0z GFS does get some light snows into eastern PA (inch of less type deal for the most part). The new 0z RGEM is obviously the best looking of the bunch now as far as snowfall, getting snows of more consequence into the Sus Valley and overall snow shield encompassing nearly the eastern half of PA (involving MDT, IPT, and ABE). It will have to continue to be watched for any more ticks westward in track. Even with an offshore track, there is a progged weak low over the lakes and the weakness/inverted trough-ishness between that and the coastal might inspire more extent to an area of snow into Central PA than what the other models not named RGEM portray. This thing is going to be a bomb, most guidance has sub 960mb pressures out of this storm with the new RGEM getting it to 948mb (!!) as it is near the benchmark. 

Regardless of what impacts this coastal ultimately has in our region snow-wise, it will undoubtedly have an impact in the form of the brutal cold that gets yanked down as the extremely deep low lifts up and slowly out. 850 temps crash into the -25ºC to -30ºC range statewide behind this storm, implying a large portion of the state not getting above 10ºF Friday OR Saturday. Some Laurels locations might not even get above zero on of those days. Then there's the wind, which likely will be plenty blustery behind this major storm. Def would be talking area-wide windchill advisories and probably a widespread part of C-PA potentially reaching wind chill warning thresholds (less than -25ºF). This impending arctic shot means business. 

Beyond, I am also eying up the next system in the mid range. Flow aloft looks to shift southwesterly late this weekend into early next week, with robust modifying of the temps aloft. We will moderate at the surface too, but I suspect even without a high in place on the models that low level cold will be sluggish to dislodge at first. Thus I think the next system could pose an ice threat. Might not be a ton of precip though, I'm kind of leaning towards the more progressive and weaker GFS solutions of this system vs the more wound up Euro ones at this time. 

[sauss06]

OCMD looks like a good place to chase to. 

i was thinking about a couple years ago when the schools were closing because of temps, anyone remember what year that was, 2013-14??

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

OCMD looks like a good place to chase to. 

i was thinking about a couple years ago when the schools were closing because of temps, anyone remember what year that was, 2013-14??

Yes, schools were closed down here that winter. 

OCMD is looking good. And it's relatively close and easy to get to. For some real fun, maybe head to Montauk Point? 

[sauss06]

19 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Yes, schools were closed down here that winter. 

OCMD is looking good. And it's relatively close and easy to get to. For some real fun, maybe head to Montauk Point? 

i had to google where that was, i like your idea better. 

Broke another record this morning. 

http://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/01/wednesday_mornings_temperature.html#incart_target2box_default_#incart_target2box_targeted_

[pawatch]

It is currently 0° here this morning. 

Thanks for the new thread Mag!

[canderson]

-1 at MDT this morning, another record low. We're in the midst of one of the most brutal prolonged cold stretches in Harrisburg history, when all is said and done it'll be very likely 13 consecutive days below freezing and at least 10 of those in the single digits. 

And man Saturday if the wind can calm MDT might not even see double digits as a high. This cold as Mag said is serious stuff. 

[pasnownut]

Mag, I hope you are the winter good luck charm for starting threads.

Looking at the overnights, truth told, i like the upcoming pattern as it looks to get more active w/ the southern stream and from the 6z we dont see any 40's until 1/13 and that is a brief spike before cold looks to reload. 

Deep winter.....and chances for fun.....ahhh....

Did a walk run last night w/ my golden, and hardly sweat....and i was layered UP!!  Nostrils did freeze a bit tho... lol

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Well the NAM made things a little interesting down this way. Do I believe it? No. It was fun to look at though. 

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Well the NAM made things a little interesting down this way. Do I believe it? No. It was fun to look at though. 

How many hours out?

[canderson]

So which area busts more: the MA coast around Gloucester or Lancaster? If Gloucester is rain and not 16" snow, then Lancaster gets in a little action. 

[CarlislePaWx]

-4F for my low this morning...second minus low in the past week.  This made this morning the coldest I have recorded since January of 2010 when I hit -5.

Boy...at MDT...2 mornings with sub-zero lows.  Honestly, this stretch of persistent cold is amazing.  And, I'm still holding on to 2" of snow cover since the warmest high since the clipper has only been 21!  Hah.

[Itstrainingtime]

38 minutes ago, pawatch said:

How many hours out?

3K Nam at 12z. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

-4F for my low this morning...second minus low in the past week.  This made this morning the coldest I have recorded since January of 2010 when I hit -5.

Boy...at MDT...2 mornings with sub-zero lows.  Honestly, this stretch of persistent cold is amazing.  And, I'm still holding on to 2" of snow cover since the warmest high since the clipper has only been 21!  Hah.

Was thinking about this on my way to work this morning. We've had our share of 48 hour cold snaps in recent memory, but I can't recall consistent cold of this nature since January '94. 

[CarlislePaWx]

9 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Was thinking about this on my way to work this morning. We've had our share of 48 hour cold snaps in recent memory, but I can't recall consistent cold of this nature since January '94. 

Ah yes...January of 1994.  The winter of the incredible cold with ice storms (and plenty of snow storms too).  During the biggest of the ice storms my friend who lived near High Point, NJ observed freezing rain with a temperature of 4 above zero.  I was in the teens with freezing rain at the time.  That was the worst ice storm of my life, preceded only by January of 1978.

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Ah yes...January of 1994.  The winter of the incredible cold with ice storms (and plenty of snow storms too).  During the biggest of the ice storms my friend who lived near High Point, NJ observed freezing rain with a temperature of 4 above zero.  I was in the teens with freezing rain at the time.  That was the worst ice storm of my life, preceded only by January of 1978.

Roads in my area had a 6" layer of ice  that lasted for what seemed like weeks. No lie, there were some roads with deep ruts from tires that were surrounded by all of that ice. It was like a pinball machine trying to keep my car in the ruts while bouncing off the outer wall of the ice pack. Nothing melted. Nothing worked to melt it. It was too cold. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Horst is goin' bullish (relatively speaking, and for him)

[sauss06]

Mike & Nut, i honestly think you guys are in  the game, for a couple inches anyhow. 

[Voyager]

That right hook at the Mason-Dixon line is a bit painful to look at. A due north extrapolation would have put much of CPA in at least the 3-6 inch range, and perhaps 6-12 in my backyard.

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That right hook at the Mason-Dixon line is a bit painful to look at. A due north extrapolation would have put much of CPA in at least the 3-6 inch range, and perhaps 6-12 in my backyard.

if you look at the 6z and 12z's there is a semblance of some models of a little better banding, as well as a better northward adjustment of the qpf into NE Pa.  While a big shift is unlikely, IMO there is an upside potential and not a downside for the eastern 1/3 of the state.  this storm was never ours, but if we steal away a few inches, I'll take it an run.....and start looking for the next one.  with the dynamics at play, adjustments arent an impossiblity.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

21 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That right hook at the Mason-Dixon line is a bit painful to look at. A due north extrapolation would have put much of CPA in at least the 3-6 inch range, and perhaps 6-12 in my backyard.

I was staring at the image for a while before I posted it, really unusual contour layout...but i guess it fits what everyone is saying about the kicker diving down from Canada. Looks like Eric is expecting the storm to make a further north advancement than most. 

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Mike & Nut, i honestly think you guys are in  the game, for a couple inches anyhow. 

We shall see my friend. Big dynamic storms bring surprises both good and bad. I have my expectations set really low and my hope meter really high.

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I was staring at the image for a while before I posted it, really unusual contour layout...but i guess it fits what everyone is saying about the kicker diving down from Canada. Looks like Eric is expecting the storm to make a further north advancement than most. 

If only it would have hugged the coast. It would have likely been rain or a mix down the shore, but would have been FANTASTIC in our area.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

We shall see, there are always surprises both good and bad in wound up dynamic systems such as this one. I have a very low bar set but obviously hope some of these west trends continue. 

lol...see my post above.  Good to know we think alike.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

lol...see my post above.  Good to know we think alike.

Yeah buddy! We've danced to this tune long enough to know that no model or even the best forecaster can predict something that is going bombs away like this. Buckle up, the next 18-24 hours is gonna be fun...

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Yeah buddy! We've danced to this tune long enough to know that no model or even the best forecaster can predict something that is going bombs away like this. Buckle up, the next 18-24 hours is gonna be fun...

No matter the result, it sure has been.  I'm even having fun down in the MA forum...and they dont throw rocks at me anymore.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pasnownut said:

No matter the result, it sure has been.  I'm even having fun down in the MA forum...and they dont throw rocks at me anymore.

They're entertaining if nothing else. They have a unique way of expressing displeasure when they don't get snow while others do. Hopefully this works out for them to make them happy for a day or two. 

Partly sunny and 26 here. Snowing and 28 in Hilton Head. Good times! 

[Santa Clause]

If every winter day were like today it'd be my favorite season.

[Eskimo Joe]

Rich Grumm from CTP WFO is retiring today.  Here's his last AFD ever:

Quote

000
FXUS61 KCTP 031847
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
147 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep cold 500 hPa trough will dominate our weather through
early Sunday. A strong surface cyclone will pass to our east
over the next 24 hours and could produce light snow in the
southeastern areas Thursday. The low will also produce strong
winds over the region. An arctic air mass moves in Thursday and
will likely produce some of the coldest weather of the season to
date. 

Alas, there is a change in the wind and the storm early next
week could bring a wintry mix to much of the region. The extreme
cold air will be gone. And I will be retired as of 3 PM today!

Personal Note:
It has been a fun and rewarding experience to forecast for
central Pennsylvania over the last 24.5 years. I have worked
many record and historic events and had the privilege to
accomplish case studies on many of these events. Too many to
list here. We have interesting and challenging weather.

It has been an honor to serve and work with many great 
meteorologists in the NWS and regional academic community. The 
Pennsylvania State University made this experience beyond 
anything I could ever have imagined when I arrived in State 
College in May 1993. Thanks and We are!

 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Rich Grumm from CTP WFO is retiring today.  Here's his last AFD ever:

 

yeah I saw his snippet in the near term disco this AM.

 

Good for him.  Hope he is replaced w/ a snow hound.....

[sauss06]

17 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

They're entertaining if nothing else. They have a unique way of expressing displeasure when they don't get snow while others do. Hopefully this works out for them to make them happy for a day or two. 

Partly sunny and 26 here. Snowing and 28 in Hilton Head. Good times! 

 

12 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

If every winter day were like today it'd be my favorite season.

Its like a heat wave. 24 degrees.  i think i'm gonna set my saw horses up in the driveway and do some woodworking instead of the shop,  maybe enjoy a couple frosty adult beverages. 

anyone think we hit zero on Saturday early morning?