MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Eps wetter than the op and west with the surface low compared to 0z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z EPS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: NYC saw a few inches in January 2015, as they might on Thursday, which fits what I said perfectly. Secondly, the RPM, NAM and GGEM are LOL worthy. If the NAM still has that solution tomorrow night I might believe it. The UKIE is a respectable model, but it's on the Western periphery of the guidance envelop and still mostly a miss West of the city. The RGEM is also a respectable model, but it's been jumping around a lot, and we're still on the outer edges of its useful range. To quote a friend of mine, models should be used as tools for forecasting, they don't make the forecast. The upper air pattern doesn't lie. The closed 500mb vort is 50-100 miles too far East and no significant changes have occured. All the pieces are well sampled at this point, and we're running out of time. If you live on Long Island or in Eastern New England, congrats, this is your storm. If you live in NYC proper or close, a few inches are possible. North and West of the NJ TPK look to see very little. I'm going to trust mesoscale models from now. I don't see why the nam or ggem are LOL worthy quite frankly. The Euro and GFS are still trying to deal with the dynamics of this storm and both have been less than stellar lately. The upper air pattern and dynamics are still being figured out by models and mesoscale models have time and time again been able to do a better job with the details within this time frame. Looking at all models and ensembles I fully expect to get a 2-4 type of event in the hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm going to trust mesoscale models from now. I don't see why the nam or ggem are LOL worthy quite frankly. The Euro and GFS are still trying to deal with the dynamics of this storm and both have been less than stellar lately. The upper air pattern and dynamics are still being figured out by models and mesoscale models have time and time again been able to do a better job with the details within this time frame. Looking at all models and ensembles I fully expect to get a 2-4 type of event in the hudson valley. I think the mesos may have an edge sensing the latent heat release and height rises from all the convection. Still think this continues to edge west until go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 EPS mean looks like a good first guess for snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm going to trust mesoscale models from now. I don't see why the nam or ggem are LOL worthy quite frankly. The Euro and GFS are still trying to deal with the dynamics of this storm and both have been less than stellar lately. The upper air pattern and dynamics are still being figured out by models and mesoscale models have time and time again been able to do a better job with the details within this time frame. Looking at all models and ensembles I fully expect to get a 2-4 type of event in the hudson valley. The model verification scores speak for themselves. I think you'll find that the Euro outclasses them all, and it's not even close. Forecasting is about more than looking at pretty colors, it's about understanding the science and using the models as a tool to make a forecast rather than taking them literally. The RPM and NAM will be useful tomorrow night in order to depict where the heaviest banding should setup, that's what they were designed to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: I think the mesos may have an edge sensing the latent heat release and height rises from all the convection. Still think this continues to edge west until go-time. The globals are really treating this storm as more of a hybrid/subtropical entity, which I think is throwing off the precip totals. You can see that in the EPS mean, in a system like this those totals should be a lot higher over eastern LI and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: I am not saying that the Euro is wrong on this one. But you do realize that even as the snow began to fall with the Blizzard of 2016, the Euro was the one model that refused to cave to a snowy solution for the area. Similarly, with the Blizzard of 2015, the Euro was the last model showing the two to three feet of snow for NYC and massively busted. And, as I read twitter, many mets are throwing it out. I'm not a pro met by any means, and the Euro certainly has some support for a swing and a miss here, but the Euro has been pretty bad lately, particularly with these big storms. The Euro had no support for that January 15 storm from its ensembles really and it was a highl convoluted setup which is why really only the UKIE got that right out of all models. This setup is tricky too but the Euro ensembles are at least closer. I think it’s probably too low on QPF for sure but not by a ton as the track currently stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 out of 51 EPS members have a track near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Enigma said: EPS mean looks like a good first guess for snow accumulations. Slightly low I think. I’m saying around 4 for NYC right now and 8 eastern LI. The Euro will almost always be low on QPF so it’s not too awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: 13 out of 51 EPS members have a track near the BM. How many members track inside the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The model verification scores speak for themselves. I think you'll find that the Euro outclasses them all, and it's not even close. Forecasting is about more than looking at pretty colors, it's about understanding the science and using the models as a tool to make a forecast rather than taking them literally. The RPM and NAM will be useful tomorrow night in order to depict where the heaviest banding should setup, that's what they were designed to do. You seem to be quite full of yourself and please don't lecture me on forecasting. You seem to be taking the Euro literally and ignoring other forms of guidance especially when that guidance is within it's useful range. The Nam has been quite useful within the 48 hour time frame and the GGEM has also performed better since it's upgrade. If you want to hug the Euro and GooFuS and ignore other models be my guest. BTW I do agree that the greater impacts are going to be eastern long island and NE obviously but that doesn't mean this is going to be a 2015 scenario in the HV where I didn't get a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Enigma said: EPS mean looks like a good first guess for snow accumulations. They looks fine for the city west. But way underdone on the east end and eastern NE. A low that deep and still deepening is going to have much better dynamics and totals then that. This is not an occluding dying low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: How many members track inside the BM? Those 13 are very close to the BM similar in position and strength to the NAM and Hi res NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z EPS mean The fact that they are west of 0z is good. Hopefully not done trending. Maybe a compromise between the mesos and the globals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those 13 are very close to the BM similar in position and strength to the NAM and Hi res NAM. Thanks, you're talking about roughly 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 going with the "yanksfan rule" for this one. whenever he says it's not going to snow i get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thanks, you're talking about roughly 25%. there's about 8 far east members skewing the mean a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: going with the "yanksfan rule" for this one. whenever he says it's not going to snow i get a foot. First of all you live out on Central Long Island, it's a completely different ball game for you. Secondly, never said it wasn't going to snow. Perhaps read a bit closer next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 SREFs drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Jeez Steve D going all in with his latest forecast map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sref are becoming useless. First they were the most wet and now dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Sref are becoming useless. First they were the most wet and now dry. They have always been useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: SREFs drier That's mostly due to the reduction in forecast snowfall among the typically exaggerated ARW members (11.2" mean at 9z to 8.8" at 15z). The more reliable NMB members saw a small reduction in the mean from 5.0" to 4.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Jeez Steve D going all in with his latest forecast map LOL when does he not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Unchanged largely thru 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Been awhile since I posted here lol. Looks like slight more digging on the southern s/w, and more enhanced northern stream on the NAM at first look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Should be a similar output to the 12z, maybe a tad more interaction with the streams so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM is deeper at 15hr then suddenly flatter. I think we could see a pretty big jump between 18z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Can you guys please mention which model run you're tallking about when doing pbp? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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