Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If it doesn't translate to the surface what does it matter?

If at 0z the upper levels look the same, the precip shield will shift with it

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

H5 is still not good, this shows the disconnect.

Basically that mega solution tucked into the coast that the Euro had a few days looked more like the image below, with the big closed low cut off over the deep South.

Right. Those two streams have been disconnected on most guidance. Time's quickly running out for that to change.

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro is about 20 mbs stronger and notably further NW from yesterday's run.

That's a big adjustment given how close we are to the storm. If the storm ends up as strong as the Euro shows then I think it'll end up on the BM. 

A track from the Bahamas to the BM is great for SE NE, not so much for the NYC area. I dont know why everyone keeps referencing the BM (40N 70W) for this storm track. We need a different trajectory or inside the BM

[Stormlover74]

Just now, mikem81 said:

A track from the Bahamas to the BM is great for SE NE, not so much for the NYC area. I dont know why everyone keeps referencing the BM (40N 70W) for this storm track. We need a different trajectory or inside the BM

But the NAM has the low off the SE coast tracking off NC. A track like that to the BM would probably be fine, though still favor eastern sections

[USCG RS]

No. I only care about it shows happening at the surface (as a weather fan). Shows a miss at the surface where I'm at. 
 
 

The upper levels tend to dictate what happens at the surface. Remember models are just predictions of what algorithms have come tofether to predict. That being said, I understand that you are just a fan, however the art of forecasting is understanding the physics well enough to understand why the model is incorrect.

[Ericjcrash]

It's basically tropical too. Look at the warm core. Wild storm hit or miss.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

A track from the Bahamas to the BM is great for SE NE, not so much for the NYC area. I dont know why everyone keeps referencing the BM (40N 70W) for this storm track. We need a different trajectory or inside the BM

True but it'll help give us some snows. The best snowfall was always targeted toward eastern areas. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

Not a miss. What you are seeing is the third piece of energy acting as a kicker and therfore it shunts the storm east in a quick manner. In reality, the question becomes where the crucial third piece of energy comes into play. If it phases with it around the mid Atlantic, then you have an unprecedented storm. If it acts more as a kicker, you have a significant storm for the area with fierce winds at the coast, but she's in and out. The 12km Nam was a perfect phase for all three which allows it to slow down coming up the coast and absolutely explode. Again, as has been the case this whole saga, it all comes down to kick or phase.

Yeah, that's what the 12z run just did. There is time for this to change over the next few runs. But the changes from the Bahamas to Hatteras have been very dramatic over the last 2 days. I will give that old control run credit for an early heads up on how low the pressures could go in this storm.

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Very impressive system regardless of what happens. You rarely see a sub 960 low near our latitude outside of a hurricane. A few models/ensembles even show a sub 950 mb storm. 

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Right. Those two streams have been disconnected on most guidance. Time's quickly running out for that to change.

Pull the 534dm into that troff and it's a pretty good setup.  There's enough time for models to change that look.

[mike1984]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

14 minutes ago, mike1984 said:

No. I only care about it shows happening at the surface (as a weather fan). Shows a miss at the surface where I'm at. 
 
 

The upper levels tend to dictate what happens at the surface. Remember models are just predictions of what algorithms have come tofether to predict. That being said, I understand that you are just a fan, however the art of forecasting is understanding the physics well enough to understand why the model is incorrect.

Thanks. If everything in the upper levels is showing a hit, why isn’t it snowing on the surface on the Euro?

[mikem81]

What the heck is that 995 LP way out east of the main. Could it be causing the escape east? Is it a fiction?

[NJwx85]

The problem is so easy to see. That lead shortwave is still the culprate, it's been there since the beginning. It stays a separate entity of the trough until past our latitude. The only reason why it's even tracking as Northerly as it is is because of the strength of the Western Atlantic ridge and the orientation of the mid-level jet thanks to the digging trough. In other words, no real mechanism to draw it back to the coast, so it forms out East and then moves North from there. We almost need the surface low to track over OBX. We don't need a huge shift, but we need at least 50 to as much as 100 miles and that hasn't happened yet.

[jm1220]

Id definitely still pay attention from the city and east, since the precip field can improve on later runs with the better evolution aloft. But I agree about the kicker energy being a problem for really wrapping this up. If that doesn’t change by tonight I don’t think it will be anything more than a 3-5” type event around the city. It is looking a good bit better for eastern Suffolk and eastern New England. 

[SnowGoose69]

I feel relatively safe saying NYC is gong to go below zero at this point.  I would be more surprised if they didn’t at this juncture 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, snow1 said:

I don't know why everyone west of NYC is getting excited. This is a few inches and then cold and wind. NE is the place to be to get big snows.

This could be a historical meteorological event, so what if it's not a Blockbuster. Anyone who loves weather would drool at the opportunity to see such a bomb so close to them. 

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Id definitely still pay attention from the city and east, since the precip field can improve on later runs with the better evolution aloft. But I agree about the kicker energy being a problem for really wrapping this up. If that doesn’t change by tonight I don’t think it will be anything more than a 3-5” type event around the city. It is looking a good bit better for eastern Suffolk and eastern New England. 

Good luck explaining that (I agree with you) after 18z NAM shows 12+ from the city east. You know it's coming. 

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel relatively safe saying NYC is gong to go below zero at this point.  I would be more surprised if they didn’t at this juncture 

Yeah, I'm hoping for a single digit high. There should be at least some snowcover.

[RDRY]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

Pull the 534dm into that troff and it's a pretty good setup.  There's enough time for models to change that look.

The best dynamics are to the east of wherever the main low forms, which is what's limiting the westside precip and intensity.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Id definitely still pay attention from the city and east, since the precip field can improve on later runs with the better evolution aloft. But I agree about the kicker energy being a problem for really wrapping this up. If that doesn’t change by tonight I don’t think it will be anything more than a 3-5” type event around the city. It is looking a good bit better for eastern Suffolk and eastern New England. 

That’s been my thinking since sunday. I think the precip amounts are way under modeled out there. I could see a feb 13 style deform setting up out over the forks. Add that too winds gusting to at least 60 and it’s a serious blizzard. West of say Islip we are just getting scraps. It will sill be a nice event, as 3-6” on western LI is nothing to be ashamed of 

[NJwx85]

The black outline is where the best dynamics are on the Euro.

Notice the total lack of winds aloft over NJ and NY

[West Point, NY]

9 minutes ago, snow1 said:

I don't know why everyone west of NYC is getting excited. This is a few inches and then cold and wind. NE is the place to be to get big snows.

This is a 20:1 ratio deal west of city with less wind. Doesn't take much moisture to get a plow able snow with those ratios. 90%of the time I get the same snow total up here in the hills of Harriman as the coast when the coast is predicted to have the higher totals. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, West Mtn NY said:

This is a 20:1 ratio deal west of city with less wind. Doesn't take much moisture to get a plow able snow with those ratios. 90%of the time I get the same snow total up here in the hills of Harriman as the coast when the coast is predicted to have the higher totals. 

The RGEM would be warning criteria for anyone south of I78 and east of I-95. 6-10" easily with better ratios. The NAM was oh so close to the same thing west of the city

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel relatively safe saying NYC is gong to go below zero at this point.  I would be more surprised if they didn’t at this juncture 

Agreed, the CAA once this storm passes will be very strong. I think the winds on the backside could really over perform given the pressure gradient. 

The strong gusts (40-50+) plus single digits temperatures will yield widespread wind chill advisories and warnings. 

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The RGEM would be warning criteria for anyone south of I78 and east of I-95. 6-10" easily with better ratios. The NAM was oh so close to the same thing west of the city

No region has been shafted more times in the last ten years than those that live West of 287 and North of Rt. 78 in NJ, NE PA and bordering counties in NY State.

[NJwx85]

12z NAVGEM ticked East 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

No region has been shafted more times in the last ten years than those that live West of 287 and North of Rt. 78 in NJ, NE PA and bordering counties in NY State.

That's not going to change with this storm but you'll do better as we warm up and get away from coastal events

[NYCGreg]

I am not saying that the Euro is wrong on this one.  But you do realize that even as the snow began to fall with the Blizzard of 2016, the Euro was the one model that refused to cave to a snowy solution for the area.  Similarly, with the Blizzard of 2015, the Euro was the last model showing the two to three feet of snow for NYC and massively busted.  And, as I read twitter, many mets are throwing it out.  I'm not a pro met by any means, and the Euro certainly has some support for a swing and a miss here, but the Euro has been pretty bad lately, particularly with these big storms.

[Sn0waddict]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No region has been shafted more times in the last ten years than those that live West of 287 and North of Rt. 78 in NJ, NE PA and bordering counties in NY State.

Do you mean just the nyc metro area? If not then people near state college would want to have a word with you lol

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So what you're saying then is we should ignore all the other models that give the NYC area more precip such as GGEM, UKIE, NAM, RPM, etc. We should just hug global models like Euro and GFS which have been correcting west?

NYC saw a few inches in January 2015, as they might on Thursday, which fits what I said perfectly.

Secondly, the RPM, NAM and GGEM are LOL worthy. If the NAM still has that solution tomorrow night I might believe it. The UKIE is a respectable model, but it's on the Western periphery of the guidance envelop and still mostly a miss West of the city. The RGEM is also a respectable model, but it's been jumping around a lot, and we're still on the outer edges of its useful range.

To quote a friend of mine, models should be used as tools for forecasting, they don't make the forecast. The upper air pattern doesn't lie. The closed 500mb vort is 50-100 miles too far East and no significant changes have occured. All the pieces are well sampled at this point, and we're running out of time. If you live on Long Island or in Eastern New England, congrats, this is your storm. If you live in NYC proper or close, a few inches are possible. North and West of the NJ TPK look to see very little.