North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 that will definitely be an issues on the far western edge of the precip-whereever that might end up. Hopefully west of MMU? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 WS Watch for Suffolk Cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trough orientation much improved thru 24. SLP west too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I can only see the tropical tidbits version, so it's not very high-def, but it appears as though the southern s/w is sharper and Trying to tilt negative faster at hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Jeff Beradelli, a meteorologist who used to post on these forums used to say, "The devil is in the details". With that being said, it seems the general consensus is that the longer range models were not picking this system up well. Perhaps we would need to throw that information out and only go with the present vorticity maps and perhaps 12-24 hours forecasat and extrapolate the rest? Take a look at the present water vapor loops. Right now, the flow has all the southern moisture being sucked out to sea. Obviously the trough will bend within the next 12-48 hours, but how much? The water vapor shows the incoming energy quite well, but several phases need to take place, pretty quickly. The high pressure is south and west of our area, which is not typical of an east coast snow storm. At this point, I would forecast a near miss, despite the model trends (I've been wrong too often). I'm sure we will all learn something from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thru 30 certainly coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: Jeff Beradelli, a meteorologist who used to post on these forums used to say, "The devil is in the details". With that being said, it seems the general consensus is that the longer range models were not picking this system up well. Perhaps we would need to throw that information out and only go with the present vorticity maps and perhaps 12-24 hours forecasat and extrapolate the rest? Take a look at the present water vapor loops. Right now, the flow has all the southern moisture being sucked out to sea. Obviously the trough will bend within the next 12-48 hours, but how much? The water vapor shows the incoming energy quite well, but several phases need to take place, pretty quickly. The high pressure is south and west of our area, which is not typical of an east coast snow storm. At this point, I would forecast a near miss, despite the model trends (I've been wrong too often). I'm sure we will all learn something from this storm. Thanks for weighing in. I will temper expectations, there is too much uncertainty but when someone with training looks at things and makes an observation, I tend to take that seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thru 30 certainly coming west.Without a doubt, this has the look that this will jog significantly West. Look at the bending of the isobar towards the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 At 48 957mb NW of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro is going to come west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thanks for weighing in. I will temper expectations, there is too much uncertainty but when someone with training looks at things and makes an observation, I tend to take that seriously.This is, and has been from day one, all about the Vorts and how they will phase. This is why the models have been bouncing around. All of our players are on the field and have been sampled at this point. Not foolproof, but a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro is mostly a miss, similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 957 mb low. The 12z yesterday for the same exact time frame had it at 977. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Euro is mostly a miss, similar to GFS. Improved alot at h5 Surface doesn't match up This model use to be good. It's going to take until tomorrow for this model to catch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mike1984 said: Still a miss. Still coming west,next few runs will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 H5 looked promising thru 48. In the end no real surface changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 People who say it’s a miss. Do you even look at the upper levels?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The really big problem we have to contend with is the way the low gets to where it gets... if this were a typical Miller-A that kind of end-location would be golden for everyone here. since it's coming from the Bahamas, however, we need it to take more of a north track then a NE track. Not out of the realm of possibility that this isn't done trending, however. If we can keep getting a sharper trough moving forward that will greatly help with trying to cut the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dmillz25 said: People who say it’s a miss. Do you even look at the upper levels?? Yea sooo many people are to into the surface depiction.... h5 was much improved that has to transfer down the surface as we move forward. we still have time its only Tuesday 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: People who say it’s a miss. Do you even look at the upper levels?? If it doesn't translate to the surface what does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Basically the further East circle is where the Euro closes off the 500mb low. We need it instead to be located within further West circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is going to have to track pretty well inside the benchmark to bring big snows into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Improved alot at h5 Surface doesn't match up This model use to be good. It's going to take until tomorrow for this model to catch onNot a miss. What you are seeing is the third piece of energy acting as a kicker and therfore it shunts the storm east in a quick manner. In reality, the question becomes where the crucial third piece of energy comes into play. If it phases with it around the mid Atlantic, then you have an unprecedented storm. If it acts more as a kicker, you have a significant storm for the area with fierce winds at the coast, but she's in and out. The 12km Nam was a perfect phase for all three which allows it to slow down coming up the coast and absolutely explode. Again, as has been the case this whole saga, it all comes down to kick or phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Essentially, the 12z ECMWF cut QPF from a line running from Islip to New Haven and westward. It increased QPF in such cities as Boston (0.43" to 0.71"), Groton (0.28" to 0.45"), Providence (0.37" to 0.55") and Westhampton (0.36" to 0.40") from its 0z run. However, one should keep in mind that QPF output from this far out are subject to a lot of uncertainty. The improved dynamics could suggest a larger precipitation field to the west. So one should take the QPF reductions with a large dose of caution, especially as the mesoscale models and UKMET offered a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: People who say it’s a miss. Do you even look at the upper levels?? No. I only care about it shows happening at the surface (as a weather fan). Shows a miss at the surface where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Basically the further East circle is where the Euro closes off the 500mb low. We need it instead to be located within further West circle. Exactly. Its not impossible it happens either, if it's sharper and is able to turn that corner. This is painstakingly close to a massive storm for coastal areas, QPF be damned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yea sooo many people are to into the surface depiction.... h5 was much improved that has to transfer down the surface as we move forward. we still have time its only Tuesday 12z! H5 is still not good, this shows the disconnect. Basically that mega solution tucked into the coast that the Euro had a few days looked more like the image below, with the big closed low cut off over the deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro is about 20 mbs stronger and notably further NW from yesterday's run. That's a big adjustment given how close we are to the storm. If the storm ends up as strong as the Euro shows then I think it'll end up on the BM. The bigger question is how dynamic and expansive will the precip shield be, you would think that a bombing system relatively close to the BM would produce a stronger, more expansive precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think that lead shortwave is locked in at this point. It's not going fully phase in until the surface low is near Nova Scotia. The best we can hope for at this point is that the trough speeds up and captures it quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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